Scouting The NBA DFS - Tuesday, March 28

We've got a full slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Taurean Prince played a career-high 38 minutes with those players out on Sunday, producing 17 points with a full line, and he’s now sporting a 22.3% Usage Rate while averaging 0.82 FPs per minute with Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha and Paul Millsap off the floor this year. The Suns give up the second-most PPG (113) in the NBA and Prince should see plenty of playing time with those 3 Hawks ruled out again.

Fade: John Wall is the most expensive play on DraftKings’ strange late slate and he’s probably not worth the money in what should be a blowout win at the Lakers tonight.

Game Lines

  1. Houston Rockets (-1.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 234)
  2. Portland Blazers (-2) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 226.5)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (-3) hosting Philadelphia 76ers (Over/Under = 221.5)
  4. Atlanta Hawks (-7.5) hosting Phoenix Suns (Over/Under = 215.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Stephen Curry (GSW) @ HOU DK:$9,400/FD:$9,900

There’s a very clear game to target tonight and it’s out in Houston. With a 234-point Over/Under (that is probably a bit low) and two of the top four NBA teams in terms of pace of play, this should be a track meet with plenty of fantasy production for whichever players see the most touches. It’s taken a couple of weeks, but Curry and the Warriors (+1.5) are re-discovering how to play at an elite level without Kevin Durant, and the two-time reigning MVP has found his rhythm with 48 points and 23 assists over 2 easy home wins recently. He’s sporting a 35% Usage Rate while averaging 1.35 FPs per minute with KD off the floor this year and will most likely get his against a Rockets team that coughs up the second-most FPPG (48.22) to opposing PGs over the last month.

Dennis Schroder (ATL) vs. PHO DK:$7,800/FD:$7,200

Schroder is killing it for the most part with Paul Millsap on the shelf and the Hawks leading scorer has already been ruled out ahead of tonight’s juicy matchup against a Suns team that gives up the second-most PPG (113) in the NBA this season. Phoenix also coughs up the most FPPG (49.4) to opposing PGs over the last month and allowed Schroder to go for 31 points on 13-of-23 FG shooting in a previous meeting this season. He’s second on Atlanta in overall usage but that Usage Rate spikes to 32.4% while he averages 1.03 FPs per minute with Millsap off the floor.

Potential Value

Spencer Dinwiddie ($3900/$3500) is capable of meeting value as a true punt play while Isaiah Whitehead ($3500/$3500) can also produce in a great matchup against the 76ers. Tyler Ulis ($6900/$6000) is still a solid mid-tier option as the Suns only option at PG right now.

Longshot

Jeremy Lin ($5900/$5800) is sharing minutes with the aforementioned Dinwiddie/Whitehead combination but could still exceed value over limited playing time against Philly’s horrific defense.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

James Harden (HOU) vs. GSW DK:$12,300/FD:$12,500

If you’re targeting the juiciest matchup on the slate, it’s quite obvious who you’ll need to pay up for in a Rockets uniform. So far this season, Harden’s posted a triple double with 29 points in a 2OT win at Golden State and struggled in relative terms with 17 points and 11 assists when the Rockets suffered a blowout loss to the Dubs. Yet that was with Kevin Durant in the lineup and the Warriors have become much closer to vulnerable without their second superstar. Harden has been en fuego this month with averages of 32.3 PPG and 11.3 APG over 12 March appearances and only really hit the brakes on Sunday because the Thunder didn’t pose much of a threat in Houston. The Rockets will need everything he has tonight as they put their top-ranked offense to the test against Golden State’s second-ranked offense.

Eric Gordon (HOU) vs. GSW DK:$5,300/FD:$4,900

While it was Lou Williams who went off with 31 points in a 137-125 win over the Thunder on Sunday, Gordon turned another solid game and met value in a seventh consecutive appearance. He’s scored in double figures throughout that span and is bound to see a rise in usage with Ryan Anderson (ankle) ruled out for the next two weeks. EG sports a 25.7% Usage Rate while averaging 0.60 points per minute with Anderson off the floor this season and is never shy about firing away in the Rockets’ three-happy system. He’s averaging a somewhat modest 14.5 PPG while shooting 4-of-16 from deep over 2 meetings with the Dubs this season, but shoots a scalding 41.6% from three at home this year and should find space to fire tonight.

Potential Value

Josh Richardson ($5200/$4600) remains a very solid value play with Dion Waiters (ankle) out for Miami. K.J McDaniels ($3900 as SF on DK/$3800) is more of a true punt play if you want to mess with the Nets wacky bench rotations.

Longshot

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6500/$5900) could certainly go off with Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha out in addition to Millsap ahead of a dream matchup against the Suns.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

T.J. Warren (PHO) @ ATL DK:$7,200/FD:$6,400

It’s definitely worth considering Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9700) at this position on DK, but FanDuel is a different story and Warren stands out as a great mid-tier value with tons of upside on that DFS site. He just returned to a Suns lineup that is missing Eric Bledsoe (knee), Brandon Knight (back) and Tyson Chandler (rest) essentially ruled out for the season while Leandro Barbosa (hamstring) seems unlikely to suit up tonight. Warren dropped 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds over 39 minutes in his return to action on Sunday, so he should see a huge slate of minutes against a shorthanded Hawks team that’s missing its two best wing defenders. Even with Bazemore and Sefolosha active, Atlanta’s giving up the third-most FPPG (40.27) to opposing SFs this season and Warren is clearly going to attack with few other scoring options available for the Suns.

Taurean Prince (ATL) vs. PHO DK:$4,800/FD:$3,800

We have another fantastic value on FanDuel in the same game, as Prince is looking at a massive increase in his role with Bazmore, Sefolosha and Millsap ruled out tonight. The rookie played a career-high 38 minutes with those players out on Sunday, producing 17 points with a full line, and he’s now sporting a 22.3% Usage Rate while averaging 0.82 FPs per minute with those 3 Hawks off the floor this year. The Suns give up the second-most PPG (113) in the NBA and are generally pathetic on the defensive end, which is essentially why the Hawks coaching staff is comfortable holding out their three veterans and letting young guys like Prince roll against a glorified college team in Phoenix.

Potential Value

Andre Iguodala ($5000 as SG on DK/$4800) should be productive in a fast-paced matchup at Houston.

Longshot

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4700/$4000) was a full participant in practice for the Wizards yesterday and could lit it up in the late slate during a fantastic matchup at the Lakers.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ POR: DK:$9,400 as C/FD:$10,300

It’s a bit of a shame that the Nuggets and Blazers game isn’t on the main slate on DK, but if you’re playing the late slate on that DFS site, Jokic is basically a must play at a still modest price tag. He crushed the value of that price tag with 30 points, 17 rebounds and 5 assists in a win at Indiana on Saturday before predictably struggling against Anthony Davis on Sunday. That’s kept his price tag down ahead of a great matchup against a Blazers team that gives up the fifth-most PPG (109) along with the fourth-most FPP (45.52) to opposing PFs this season. The Joker has put up modest numbers against Portland this year, but will now have the added motivation of facing former backup Jusuf Nurkic, who will also be fired up for this matchup.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN) vs. PHI: DK:$5,200/FD:$4,700 as SF

There are several value plays out of the Nets backcourt that come with a lot of risk, but RHJ can serve as a solid mid-tier option in what seems like a better matchup for forwards against the Sixers depleted frontcourt. Philly is giving up the third-most overall FPPG (217.85) over the last month including the tenth-most FPPG (45.99) to opposing PFs during that span. Hollis-Jefferson is averaging 11.7 PPG, 12 RPG and 33.1 DK PPG over his last 3 appearances and is a superior athlete than Dario Saric or Robert Covington if that’s who he’ll match up with tonight.

Potential Value

Jared Dudley ($3800/$3600) should have a role with the shorthanded Suns right now and he’s a decent bet to meet value as a punt.

Longshot

Draymond Green ($8100/$7700) has become an extremely volatile play at his price tag but he has good splits against the Rockets and could fill up the stat sheet in a track meet.

Centers

Two Studs

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) @ IND: DK:$10,100/FD:$10,400

The aforementioned Jusuf Nurkic ($7600/$6700) is a fantastic play for the late slate in a revenge matchup against his former team, but if you’re playing the main slate on DK or simply want the best overall option at center, use KAT. The Wolves budding superstar is coming off his first rough game in months but is in a great bounce back spot against a Pacers team that gives up the third-most FPPG (55.05) and second-most RPG (17.33) to opposing centers over the last month. Indy starts an undersized center in Myles Turner, who was helpless to stop Towns from going for 33 points on 13-of-23 FG shooting in a previous meeting this season and probably won’t fare much better tonight.

Clint Capela (HOU) vs. GSW: DK:$5,400/FD:$5,500

It bears mentioning Capela as a potential addition to a Rockets-Warriors stack even if there are a number of other appealing centers tonight. Capela is one of the more reliable cash game options you can find in this price range right now and he should be productive given his role as Harden’s PnR partner in a game that will be played with tons of pace and space. The Warriors are allowing an above average 15.09 RPG to opposing centers as well due to their blinding pace of play and Capela is averaging 16 PPG and 8 RPG over 2 meetings with the Dubs this season.

Potential Value

Alex Len ($4600/$5000) and Alan Williams ($5400/$5400) will both get their cracks at Dwight Howard and the Hawks tonight for the shorthanded Suns.

Longshot

IF Jahlil Okafor (knee) misses another game, Richaun Holmes ($6300/$5700 as PF on FD) would be worth a look as a GPP play while Shawn Long ($4200/$4500) would become an excellent value.


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