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Plays of the Day
Value: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot re-emerged as a fantastic value play last night by providing 10x returns on his price tag with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists over 33 minutes at Brooklyn. Now he draws another good matchup against a Hawks team that gives up the sixth-most FPPG (39.22) to opposing SGs and most FPPG (43.41) to opposing SFs over the last month.
Fade: We only get a couple more games of DeMar DeRozan without Kyle Lowry (wrist), but it might be best to avoid the Raptors top scorer tonight. He’s struggled with averages of 22.3 PPG and limited peripheral stats over 3 appearances against Charlotte this year and seems to struggle to produce against the lengthy Nic Batum.
- Philadelphia 76ers (+1) hosting Atlanta Hawks (Over/Under = 209)
- San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 209)
- Orlando Magic (+6) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 217.5)
Stephen Curry (GSW) @ SA DK:$8,800/FD:$9,900
Yesterday’s breakdown played so well that we’re rolling with the same two picks at PG and they both seem safe to deploy in a high usage role. Curry is sporting a 35.2% Usage Rate while averaging 1.36 FPs per minute with Kevin Durant (knee) off the floor this season and he just carried the Warriors offense in a close win over the Rockets. Steph averages 24.2 PPG and 7.4 APG on 0 days rest this season and will have to give another bigtime effort if the Warriors (+4.5) want to win on the road against a rival. San Antonio is clearly a great defensive team, but Curry is a top 3 ball-handler and probably the best shooter of all time, so it’s not really possible to contain him entirely and his price tag remains temptingly low on DK.
Dennis Schroder (ATL) @ PHI DK:$7,700/FD:$7,200
While Kent Bazemore (knee) and Thabo Sefolosha (groin) could both return to action for the Hawks tonight, the most important factor for Schroder will be the status of Paul Millsap (knee), since those other Hawks aren’t really key offensive players. He’s been excellent with Millsap on the shelf and has now produced 79 points and 24 minutes while exceeding value in each of his last 3 appearances. Schroder draws another plus matchup tonight against a Sixers team that has been unable to protect the rim with Joel Embiid (knee) done for the season and is giving up the fourth-most overall FPPG (215.89) over the last month. As long as he remains the man who is sporting a 33% Usage Rate with Millsap off the floor this season, he’s going to be a great upper-tier option.
J.J. Barea ($4300/$4000) and Yogi Ferrell ($4200/$4600) could both become excellent values if Seth Curry (shoulder) misses another game and Barea is worth a look regardless in a plus matchup at New Orleans.
The Bucks have been great against opposing PGs, but not against Isaiah Thomas ($8000/$8400), who dropped 37 points in a previous meeting with Milwaukee and continues to score in bunches for the surging Celtics.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @ BOS DK:$9,700 as PG/SF/FD:$10,300
He may be the best per dollar option at PG on DK once again and is worth paying up for as a stat-stuffing machine despite his lofty price tag on FanDuel tonight. Giannis followed a couple of huge games against the Hawks and Kings with modest efforts against the Bulls and Hornets, and now he faces a Celtics team that’s been up and down defensively while suffering such lapses as Devin Booker’s 70-point game last Friday. Because Boston struggles to rebound and lacks rim protection, The Greek Freak should be able to post a double double while doing some damage in the open court, as he did when he produced 21 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in a meeting with the Celtics earlier this season. Boston has won 6 of its last 7 but many of those games have been quite close and tonight should be no different.
Victor Oladipo (OKC) @ ORL DK:$6,000/FD:$6,000
Take a stroll down #NarrativeStreet and play Dipo in his return to Orlando tonight. While everything runs through Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, Oladipo has quietly met or exceeded value in 8 of his last 9 appearances and he’s averaging 16.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 1.5 SPG over his last 4 outings. The Magic is a poor defensive team and getting worse, as they now rank 25th in opponents FG shooting (.464%) and 26th in total rebounding. With Serge Ibaka traded, Orlando can’t really protect the rim anymore and is allowing the fifth-most FPPG (39.62) and APG (5.07) to opposing SGs over the last month.
Nik Stauskas ($4100/$3600) should serve as a low-upside punt if Gerald Henderson (hip) and other 76ers remain out. Garrett Temple ($3600/$4000) doesn’t have much upside either, but he’s now a true punt play on DK and has a good chance to meet value.
Well hello, Monta Ellis ($4500/$4400)! The Pacers SG finally logged over 34 minutes and exceeded value with 19 points and 5 assists last night, so he’s worth a look against a Memphis team that gives up surprising production to opposing SGs this year.
Kawhi Leonard (SA) vs. GSW DK:$9,900/FD:$9,800
If you targeted James Harden last night with good results you’ll certainly want to consider Kawhi as the lead source of offense for the Spurs against the elite Warriors. Golden State is on the second half of a B2B set after an exhausting track meet in Houston and has struggled to contain Leonard this season. Kawhi burned the Dubs for 35 points and 5 steals on opening night and tends to come alive anytime San Antonio plays a close game. The Dubs will be out for blood provided they don’t rest any of their big guns and should get into a high-scoring affair during their second next in Texas.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (PHI) vs. ATL DK:$3,400/FD:$3,500 as SG
With only 8 healthy players on the roster, TLC re-emerged as a fantastic value play last night by providing 10x returns on value with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists over 33 minutes at Brooklyn. He draws another good matchup tonight against a Hawks team that gives up the sixth-most FPPG (39.22) to opposing SGs and most FPPG (43.41) to opposing SFs over the last month. Atlanta could be without top wing defender Thabo Sefolosha (groin) and Kent Bazemore is expected to return after a lengthy absence, so he could have some rust. When Sixers HC Brett Brown feels that it’s warranted by the matchup, he won’t hesitate to use rookie swingman for extended stretches.
Taurean Prince ($5100/$3800) is still worth a look as a value on FanDuel if either Sefolosha or Millsap remains out, while Kent Bazemore ($4000/$4300) can be used as more of a risk-reward play.
Carmelo Anthony ($6700/$7000) has played a full slate of minutes in consecutive games and is definitely under priced on DK if he’s fully healthy. On the off chance Gordon Hayward (quad) sits again, consider Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood as mid-tier values.
DeMarcus Cousins (NO) @ DAL: DK:$9,600/FD:$9,400 as C
In a somewhat bold prediction that isn’t based on any hard reporting, I’ll expect Cousins to return from the ankle injury that has kept him out for two games tonight. If he doesn’t, Anthony Davis ($10,800/$11,700) will become close to a must play as a usage monster for the Pelicans, but both big men are in position to steamroll Dallas tonight and Cousins is clearly more of a bargain due to his inactivity. The Mavericks still rank dead last in total rebounding and cough up the fifth-most RPG (15.88) to opposing centers this year. Cousins averaged 23 PPG and 11.3 RPG over 3 meetings with the Mavs as the lead dog in Sacramento earlier this year and was really heating up for his new squad before he turned his ankle.
Zach Randolph (MEM) @ IND: DK:$6,300/FD:$5,600
It’s a pretty good bet to assume that Marc Gasol (foot) will miss another game after being listed ahead of Monday’s tilt with the Kings and if he does, ZBo will see a much bigger role again. He produced 17 points with 15 rebounds over 32 minutes against the weak Kings defense and will face a Pacers team tonight that has been extremely vulnerable down low throughout the season. Randolph leads the Grizz with a 33.2% Usage Rate while averaging 1.12 FPs per minute when Gasol is off the floor this season and ZBo’s price tag won’t represent that high-usage role if Big Spain is indeed inactive.
Skal Labissiere ($4200/$4200) and other young Kings should return to more prominent roles after HC Dave Joerger mortgaged the future to beat his old team in the Grizzlies.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6000/$4800) will remain a great value on FanDuel if he’s starting for Millsap against his former team in the 76ers.
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) @ NY: DK:$8,400/FD:$8,800
Whiteside’s lopsided home/road splits have started to normalize this late in the season and he just posted a big double double in a plus matchup at Boston. While he struggled against another giant in Andre Drummond last night, tonight he’ll face a Knicks team that’s become defenseless down low and coughs up the second-most FPPG (55.65) to opposing centers over the last month. Mr. Whiteside went for 23 points and 14 boards in a previous meeting with New York and is a great bet to double double with only Kristaps Porzingis and skinny Guillermo Hernangomez capable of playing big minutes while trying to box him out.
Dwight Howard (ATL) @ PHI: DK:$7,600/FD:$7,200
He’s been stepping up offensively with Millsap out and draws the best matchup possible tonight in Philly. The 76ers are giving up the most FPPG (63.65) and PPG (29.67) to opposing centers over the last month by far and really have no answers for D12 with natural PFs Richaun Holmes and Shawn Long splitting time at the 5. Jahlil Okafor (knee) might be able to play tonight, but he’s recognized as one of the worst defenders in the NBA. While Howard has disappointed in each matchup with the Sixers so far this season, he’s averaging 16.2 PPG and 12.8 RPG over his last 5 appearances and averaging 1.13 FPs per minute with Millsap off the floor this year.
Greg Monroe ($5200/$6000) is steadily producing for the Bucks and represents a bit of a matchup problem for the Celtics tonight. Steven Adams ($4700/$4800) has become quite cheap and he could eat thanks to the penetration of Westbrook and Oladipo.
Guillermo Hernangomez ($5400/$5100) should continue to see heavy minutes as the best option at center for the Knicks.