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Scouting The NBA DFS - Friday, March 31

We've got a full slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has been a great source of value lately and remains dirt cheap on FanDuel, while the Sixers are missing key wing Robert Covington (knee) for a couple weeks and will be forced to give TLC a longer look. The Cavs are ranked 29th in defensive rating since the ASB and cough up the eighth-most overall FPPG (212.25) over the last month, so TLC should be able to meet or exceed value while racking up stats all over the floor.

Fade: James Harden doesn’t seem to be right as he battles a wrist injury and he’s worth fading for a second consecutive tonight as the exhausted Rockets travel to Oracle Arena for what could be a blowout loss if The Beard doesn’t find a way to fix his shot.

Game Lines

  1. Golden State Warriors (-8.5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 230)
  2. New Orleans Pelicans (-9.5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 209)
  3. Charlotte Hornets (-2) hosting Denver Nuggets (Over/Under = 221)
  4. Cleveland Cavs (-11) hosting Philadelphia 76ers (Over/Under = 217.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. HOU DK:$9,500/FD:$10,200

Steph may not have the limitless upside of Russell Westbrook, but he draws a much better matchup tonight and is playing like an MVP once again with Kevin Durant (knee) unavailable for the Warriors. Curry’s averaging 24.8 PPG, 9.3 APG and 5 RPG over his last 6 appearances and has carried the Dubs to B2B wins at the Rockets and Spurs. Now his team hosts a Houston squad that’s on the second half of a B2B and could struggle to keep up if James Harden (wrist) remains hobbled, but either way, Curry is going to produce against a Rockets team that’s giving up the most FPPG (49.07) to opposing PGs over the last month. He’s shooting nearly 50% from the floor and 45.9% from 3 at Oracle Arena this season ad his usage has spiked with KD out.

Ish Smith (DET) @ MIL DK:$6,100/FD:$5,300

Apparently Reggie Jackson’s injury is more serious than we initially thought or the Pistons are simply punting on the rest of the season, because it doesn’t look like R-Jax is going to be returning to action anytime soon. If that remains the case, Ish will serve as a great mid-tier play and a certifiable value at this price tag on FanDuel. He draws a tougher matchup after putting up 21 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists against the Nets last night, but the Bucks are actually giving up the ninth-most FPPG (45.81) and seventh-most PPG (24.09) to opposing PGs over the last month. Smith is averaging 13.4 points and 7.7 assists per 36 minutes and is finally getting close to that amount of run.

Potential Value

Ron Baker ($3000/$3600) somehow only met value as a min. priced play getting 40 minutes against the Heat, but he’ll still be worth a look in the same matchup if Derrick Rose (knee) remains out. Both J.J. Barea ($4000/$4100) and Yogi Ferrell ($3900/$4600) remain solid values despite the return of Seth Curry (shoulder) in the Mavericks last game.

Longshot

Love the matchup for Isaiah Thomas ($8100/$8500) at home against the Magic (+10.5) but a blowout win could capsize his potential.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Rodney Hood (UTA) vs. WAS DK:$5,000/FD:$4,000

With James Harden struggling and Bradley Beal drawing a brutal matchup at Utah, and might make sense to save at SG beginning with Beal’s much cheaper adversary. Hood is overcoming a knee injury and was able to log 30 minutes on Monday before scoring 18 points on nearly perfect shooting in a plus matchup at Sacramento on Wednesday. He’s looking at an increased role with George Hill (groin) ruled out since he sports a 26.4% Usage Rate while averaging 0.51 points per minute with Hill off the floor this year. Washington happens to give up the most PPG (26.8) to opposing SGs over the last month and Beal will be far more concerned about looking for his offense.

Andre Iguodala (GSW) vs. HOU DK:$4,600/FD:$5,300 as SF

The most likely beneficiary with Kevin Durant out, Iguodala has been a bit inconsistent from a DFS perspective but his versatile game has forced HC Steve Kerr to give him extra run in an effort to fill the void. Lately, he’s been a beast with 46 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists while playing 93 minutes over his last 3 appearances including an all-around great game at Houston. He’ll likely play big minutes again while trying to contain James Harden and the splits hold true, as Iggy is averaging 9 PPG, 6 RPG and 4.3 APG while logging 33 MPG over 3 meetings with the fast-paced Rockets this year.

Potential Value

Josh Richardson ($5300/$4700) has been a very reliable play and he should continue to see big minutes for Miami with Dion Waiters (ankle) out. Nik Stauskas ($4600/$3800) is also worth a look as part of a potential crop of cheap Sixers to consider against the Cavs.

Longshot

Buddy Hield ($5500/$5100) is a longshot to bounce back from two rough games in a plus matchup at New Orleans, while Tyreke Evans ($4300) is worth a look as a cheap punt on DK.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ OKC DK:$9,400/FD:$9,400

Kawhi “struggled” a bit in a home game against the Warriors on Wednesday, but really he missed a bunch of makeable shots while going 7–for-20 from the floor and his team fell victim to a determined and coordinated defensive effort from the defending WCF champs. Tonight should be much different even though the Spurs are on the road, because they’ll face a Thunder squad that lacks continuity on the defensive wing and has struggled against the Spurs sophisticated offense this year. Kawhi is averaging 27.5 PPG on 46.3% FG shooting (19-of-41) over 2 meetings with OKC despite playing just 30.6 MPG in a couple of lopsided wins, but the Spurs (-1) are not expected to run away from Westbrook and his backup singers at Loud City this evening.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (PHI) @ CLE DK:$4,500/FD:$3,900 as SG

Even though the Cavs played everyone in a road game last night, we could see some or all of the Big 3 rest tonight in a winnable home game. That would open the door for guys like Luwawu-Cabarrot to operate on both ends of the floor. He’s been a great source of value lately and remains dirt cheap on FanDuel, while the Sixers are missing key wing Robert Covington (knee) for a couple weeks and will be forced to give TLC a longer look. The Cavs are ranked 29th in defensive rating since the ASB and cough up the eighth-most overall FPPG (212.25) over the last month, so TLC should be able to meet or exceed value while racking up stats all over the floor.

Potential Value

Justin Anderson ($4000/$3600) is also going to be worth a look with Robert Covington (knee) and Jahlil Okafor (knee) ruled out for the Sixers.

Longshot

Trevor Ariza ($5900/$5600) continues to see a spike in production with Ryan Anderson (ankle) on the shelf. Gordon Hayward ($7300/$7700) is also worth a look with his running mate George Hill inactive.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ CHA: DK:$9,100 as C/FD:$10,000

His price tag continues to drop for little reason and he’s a really obvious choice for lineups on DK tonight. Jokic put up reasonable numbers in a tough matchup against ultra-motivated former teammate Jusuf Nurkic on Tuesday and now he’s well rested ahead of a much easier matchup against Cody Zeller and a Hornets team that coughs up the ninth-most FPPG (48.45) and fourth-most RPG (16.09) to opposing centers this season. The Joker went for 31 points and 14 boards while shooting an absurd 13-of-15 from the floor in his sole meeting with Charlotte this season and his usage could increase with Will Barton (foot) unlikely to suit up for a fast-paced Nuggets offense that travels quite well.

Zach Randolph (MEM) vs. DAL: DK:$6,700/FD:$5,600

Marc Gasol should remain sidelined with a foot injury tonight and ZBo remains a bit under priced on FanDuel given the circumstances. He’s produced 49 points and 26 rebounds with Gasol out over the Grizzlies last 3 games and sports a team-high 33.1% Usage Rate while averaging 1.10 FPs per minute with Big Spain off the floor this year. Memphis could also be without JaMychal Green (shoulder) in a fantastic matchup against a Dallas team that ranks dead last in total rebounding and gives up the ninth-most RPG (12.36) to opposing PFs this season. Randolph is averaging 17 PPG and 9 RPG over 2 meetings with Dirk and the Mavs this season and will be a rather safe mid-tier value if Gasol sits another game.

Potential Value

Skal Labissiere ($4200/$4300) bounced back to meet value while logging 33 minutes against Utah two nights ago and he should continue to see heavy playing time for the rebuilding Kings.

Longshot

Perhaps Willie Cauley-Stein ($5700/$5900) can step up and go toe-to-toe with former teammate DeMarcus Cousins tonight.

Centers

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (NO) vs. SAC: DK:$9,600/FD:$9,600

It’s time for Boogie’s revenge. A few days after being told that the Kings would never trade him, they surprised and borderline humiliated Cousins by moving him during All-Star Weekend. Now he’ll get a chance to dominate against his former team, which has been particularly vulnerable on the interior since he left town. Cousins returned from an ankle injury to produce 29 points, 16 rebounds and 6 assists in a good matchup against Dallas and tonight’s matchup is even better against a Kings team that gives up the third-most overall FPPG (218.56) over the last month and fourth-most FPPG (53.74) to opposing centers during that span.

Al Horford (BOS) vs. ORL: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,100

Horford comes with some risk because the Celtics (-10.5) are expected to run away with this game at home, but at his modest price tag on DK he could meet value over 3 quarters of run. He’s been quite productive with averages of 14.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 6 APG over 13 March games and draws a dream matchup tonight against horrific defender Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is giving up the seventh-most RPG (16.62) to opposing centers over the last month and Vooch has allowed modest offensive talents such as Cody Zeller and Steven Adams to exceed value over the last week. Horford isn’t going to force his offense but he does so many things well for Boston and should fill up the stat sheet at home.

Potential Value

Greg Monroe ($5300/$6000) has been productive over limited playing time in meetings with former teammate Andre Drummond and he’s seen an increased role with Jabari Parker lost for the season. Also consider Guillermo Hernangomez ($5600/$5100) as a player who could see more usage with D-Rose likely out for the Knicks.

Longshot

Marcin Gortat ($3800/$4700) has been called out by Wizards HC Scott Brooks and is now officially a punt play on DK at that modest price tag. Shawn Long ($3900/$3700) is worth a look as a longshot with Jahlil Okafor still out.


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