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Plays of the Day
Value: Skal Labissiere took a seat while Kosta Koufos helped the Kings earn a grudge match win over Memphis, but Koufos was inactive last night while Skal got plenty of run against Cousins and Davis. Sacramento will need his length against Towns and Dieng tonight and he’s putting up 17.7 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes during his rookie campaign.
Fade: Elfrid Payton draws a great matchup on paper against the Nets and he’s coming off a career-high 15-assist performance at Boston, but the Magic might be a little flat on the second half of a B2B set and Brooklyn’s been a notch better against opposing PGs lately.
- Brooklyn Nets (-3.5) hosting Orlando Magic (Over/Under = 222)
- Portland Blazers (-12) hosting Phoenix Suns (Over/Under = 222)
- Minnesota Wolves (-11.5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 210)
Damian Lillard (POR) vs. PHO DK:$9,700/FD:$9,500
One of the hottest scorers in the league over the past couple of months faces one of the weakest defensive teams during that span and the results should be predictable to an extent. While Phoenix (+12) might get run out of the Moda Center this evening, the young Suns are capable of matching points against a below average Blazers defense. Lillard should have his way against a Suns team that gives up the second-most FPPG (49.38) and most PPG (28.93) to opposing PGs over the last month. Tyler Ulis is significantly smaller than Lillard as the only PG for Phoenix and the Suns lack rim protection behind him.
Jeremy Lin (BKN) vs. ORL DK:$6,100/FD:$5,900
The ball is in Lin’s hands so often that has become a relatively safe mid-tier option despite his erratic shooting. He’s just 4-for-22 from downtown over his last 4 appearances but is averaging 14.2 PPG and 5.4 APG to meet value in each of those appearances. Tonight he’ll be free to operate against a Magic team that’s giving up the second-most overall FPPG (218.74) and the fifth-most FPPG (47.95) to opposing PGs over the last month. This is the only game with a close line on the main slate for FanDuel and Lin should do the heavy lifting as the leader of Brooklyn’s fast-paced offense.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3600/$3600) continues to get steady minutes alongside Lin and he won’t need to do much to meet value at this price tag.
Rajon Rondo ($6900) is worth a look where eligible on DK and Ricky Rubio ($7900/$8100) is also capable of staying hot in a plus matchup against Sacramento.
Devin Booker (PHO) @ POR DK:$7,500/FD:$8,000
The shorthanded Suns have given the keys to their offense over to sophomore sensation Devin Booker and he’s treating fans to some impressive performances. He followed up last week’s somewhat ridiculous 70-point effort at Boston with 23 points in Charlotte and went for 33 points with 9 assists in a competitive loss to the Clippers on Thursday. Tonight he’ll face a Blazers team that’s giving up an above average 37.39 FPPG to opposing SGs but is weaker against that position than the numbers might indicate. Either Portland shuts him down, or Booker scores enough to keep this game close, so he’s a clear correlation play if you’re using Lillard or Jusuf Nurkic.
Evan Fournier (ORL) @ BKN DK:$5,600/FD:$5,600
Again, this is the best game to target from a betting odds standpoint and Fournier is one of Orlando’s most reliable scorers. Quick wings have presented problems for young Brooklyn all year and Fournier went for 21 points in a previous meeting with the Nets this year. Brooklyn gives up the most FPPG (40.95) and PPG (23.67) to opposing SGs this season and the most PPG (114.2) overall, so a pure scorer in Fournier could have a very solid game against the Nets.
Ben McLemore ($3000/$3700) has exceeded value in consecutive games and could be worth a punt at Minnesota tonight.
Buddy Hield ($5400/$5400) got hot against his former team last night and he could be more productive along with Garrett Temple ($3600/$4000) if Tyreke Evans sits on the second half of a B2B set.
Jimmy Butler (CHI) vs. ATL DK:$9,600
FanDuel is not including the 5 o’clock tip between Chicago and Atlanta on the main slate, so Butler is only an obvious top option on DraftKings this evening. Yet he’s close to a must play with Dwayne Wade out for the season and Rajon Rondo orchestrating the offense while feeding Jimmy Buckets at every turn. He’s averaging 26.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 9.6 APG and 2.2 SPG over his last 5 appearances and remains under priced at below $10K on DK, especially in a great matchup against a Hawks team that coughs up the third-most FPPG (40.25) to opposing SFs this season.
T.J. Warren (PHO) @ POR DK:$7,000/FD:$6,600
Alongside Booker as one of the only sources of offense for the Suns, Warren has been a very reliable play and he’s still a solid value on FanDuel, where you can’t pay up for Butler. He’s averaging 17.1 PPG and 8.1 RPG while playing 35.2 MPG over 14 March games and that amount of playing time is making up for his relatively low Usage Rate (19.3%) during that span. Portland is heavily favored tonight, but tends to get into plenty of shootouts and Warren is an integral part of what the Suns are doing on both ends of the floor.
Kent Bazemore ($4300) is also a fantastic option on DK with Thabo Sefolosha (groin) doubtful to play and Paul Millsap (knee) still out for the Hawks.
Terrence Ross ($5000/$4400) has plenty of upside against a poor Nets defense.
Gorgui Dieng (MIN) vs. SAC: DK:$6,200/FD:$6,000
While Karl-Anthony Towns grabs all the headlines, Dieng has really turned up lately with averages of 14.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG and 4.0 STL/BLK per game to exceed value in each of his last 4 appearances. With Nemanja Bjelica (foot) and Zach LaVine (foot) done for the year, Dieng is the unquestioned third offensive option behind KAT and Andrew Wiggins and he can be a machine in terms of peripheral stats. Tonight he draws a dream matchup against a Kings team that’s giving up the third-most FPPG (49.34) to opposing PFs over the last month and is on the second half of a B2B set after getting beat up by The Boogie and Brow last night.
Skal Labissiere (SAC) @ MIN: DK:$4,500/FD:$4,300
Opposite Dieng tonight is a somewhat similar player who is capable of exceeding value in a third straight appearance as long as HC Dave Joerger remains consistent with his minutes. Labissiere took a seat while Kosta Koufos helped the Kings earn a grudge match win over Memphis, but Koufos was inactive last night while Skal got plenty of run against Cousins and Davis. Sacramento will need his length against Towns and Dieng tonight and he’s putting up 17.7 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes during his rookie campaign.
Jared Dudley ($3900/$3800) matches up better against the shifty Blazers frontcourt than he did against the Clippers on Thursday night.
Now that he’s eligible at PF on FanDuel, Alex Len ($4200 as C on DK/$4500) can provide salary relief without sacrificing upside at center.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. SAC: DK:$10,400/FD:$10,600
Probably the best cash game play on the board tonight, Towns should rip through a Kings team that’s been unable to stop skilled big men since trading Cousins. Sacramento is coughing up the third-most overall FPPG (218.56) over the last month and Towns is averaging 21.3 PPG and 12 RPG over 3 meetings with the Kings this season. He’s been much better at home this season with averages of 26.2 PPG and 12.8 RPG at Target Center and will fill it up as long as he’s on the floor in a potential blowout win.
Jusuf Nurkic (POR) vs. PHO: DK:$7,800/FD:$7,500
NBA fans have Nurkic fever and the Nuggets GM is in danger of losing his job for looking this foolish since he gave up a first-round pick while swapping the extremely talented center for Mason Plumlee. Their loss is Portland’s gain and it’s been especially productive for Lillard in PnR sets, as Nurkic is a master of diving to the rim and finishing over poor rim protectors. Alan Williams and Alex Len aren’t exactly elite defenders down low and Phoenix is giving up the fourth-most FPPG (53.98) to opposing centers over the last month with Tyson Chandler resting down the stretch.
Robin Lopez ($4600) produced a modest double double his last time out and could meet value on DK.
Nikola Vucevic ($7600/$8300) has plenty of upside in a fantastic matchup against the Nets.