Matt Kartozian

Scouting The MLB DFS - Wednesday, April 5

Cash in on tonight's full slate of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Baltimore posted the second-lowest collective batting average (.234) with an above average 22.5% K-Rate against LHP last year and J.A. Happ went 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA and 19 K’s over 20.1 IP (3 starts) against that lineup last year. After finishing sixth in the A.L. CY Young voting last year, he’s seemingly improved while posting a 1.59 ERA during the preseason and is sporting a new changeup that could baffle his familiar foes this evening.

Fade: Chris Sale draws a relatively tough draw in his first start for the Red Sox, as the Pirates posted the fifth-highest collective wOBA (.331) against LHP last season. The small confines down the lines at Fenway Park makes it easy for a batter to lift an inside fastball over the Green Monster or slap a cheap homer down the RF line, which increases the risk for Sale when he pitches at home this season.

Weather Report

Chance of rain delays in Cincinnati tonight.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Jacob DeGrom: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $10,600/FD: $9,800

It’s an entirely new year for deGrom after he had some issues on and off the field last season and the Mets second-most talented pitcher draws a great matchup at home in an attempt to get off on the right foot. Atlanta’s offense looked rather impotent against Noah Syndergaard and posted the fourth-lowest wOBA (.304) in the Majors last year, while deGrom held the Braves to 4 ER with 15 K’s and just 2 BB over 19.2 IP (3 starts) last year. He was far more reliable at home with a 2.11 ERA, .201 BAA and 1.01 WHIP at Citi Field compared to a 4.16 ERA and .312 BAA over 12 appearances on the road, so he should be comfortable in tonight’s outing.

J.A. Happ: (TOR) @ BAL DK: $7,000 / FD: $8,400

The Blue Jays should be all over former reliever Dylan Bundy in a trip to Camden Yards tonight while their SP should continue to post Quality Starts and keep their divisional rivals off balance. Baltimore posted the second-lowest collective batting average (.234) with an above average 22.5% K-Rate against LHP last year and Happ went 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA and 19 K’s over 20.1 IP (3 starts) against that lineup last year. After finishing sixth in the A.L. CY Young voting last year, he’s seemingly improved while posting a 1.59 ERA during the preseason and is sporting a new changeup that could baffle his familiar foes this evening.

Potential Value

Garrett Richards: (LAA) @ OAK DK: $7,100 / FD: $8,600

Richards comes at an extreme discount on DK because of all the concerns about his health, which may be warranted but also might not affect his performance until much later this season. He elected not to have Tommy John surgery after suffering an elbow injury last year and so far it’s been the right decision, as his velocity has actually increased this spring and he appears ready to come out strong after posting a 2.34 ERA with an 8.89 K/9 ratio over 6 starts in 2016. Oakland ranked dead last amongst A.L. teams with a collective .302 wOBA last year and current A’s are just 14-for-71 (.197) with 11 K’s over 79 collective plate appearances against Richards.

Longshot

Taijuan Walker: (ARI) vs. SF DK: $7,500 / FD: $7,500

Another pitcher who produced mixed results last year, Walker came finished strong with a 4-1 record and 2.94 ERA over his final 5 starts of 2016. He’ll look for a fresh start in a Diamondbacks uniform and should get some run support from an Arizona offense that led the league in wOBA against LHP last season and faces a mediocre southpaw in Matt Moore. Walker will face a Giants lineup that’s a collective 4-for-21 with 4 K’s and just 1 double throughout their careers and he’s clearly a bargain on both main DFS sites given his upside.

Batters

Catchers

Tony Wolters: (COL) @ MIL DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,700

If he can catch for a third consecutive day, Wolters will represent a great per dollar value with the platoon advantage against a weak RHP. Brewers SP Wily Peralta allowed LHB to hit .298 with a .374 wOBA on the season while posting a 5.68 FIP at home against lefties last year. He’s ripe for stacking against with a lefty-heavy Rockies lineup that includes their new catcher in Wolters, who secures a consistent role with backup catcher Tom Murphy (arm) ruled out for the next month at least. Wolters is 2-for-7 with a walk and two runs so far this year and could certainly join a rally or two in a potential slugfest at Milwaukee.

Potential Value

Sandy Leon: (BOS) vs. PIT DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,200

Longshot

Yasmani Grandal: (LAD) vs. SD DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,800

First Basemen

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. SF DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,300

After launching his first homer of the 2017 season last night, Goldschmidt should be worth every bit of his lofty price tag this evening. The stud RHB posted the third-highest batting average (.352) and fourth-highest wOBA (.449) against LHP last season and faces a struggling southpaw in Matt Moore tonight. Goldy is 5-for-9 with a double and a HR in his career against Moore, who was a bit of a disaster when pitching away from massive AT&T Park last year, as he posted a 5.02 ERA with a 1.88 K/BB ratio on the road.

Potential Value

Eric Thames: (MIL) vs. COL DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,400

Longshot

Mike Napoli: (TEX) vs. CLE DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000

Second Basemen

Devon Travis: (TOR) @ BAL DK: $4,500 / FD: $2,400

Travis is apparently going to lead off for the Blue Jays on a consistent basis this year and he’s worth mentioning simply because of the huge discrepancy in his price tag on FanDuel tonight. At just above the minimum, he can provide huge returns or simply serve as a free square on that DFS site as the Blue Jays look to tag O’s starter Dylan Bundy. The 24-year-old Bundy posted a 4.70 FIP with a problematically low 35.9% Ground Ball Rate last year and is a vulnerable arm to target tonight. Travis went 2-for-6 in his first leadoff start off the year and the sheer amount of opportunities gives him a solid floor as a good contact hitter.

Potential Value

Jose Peraza: (CIN) vs. PHI DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,000

Longshot

Robinson Cano: (SEA) @ HOU DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,200

Third Basemen

Kyle Seager: (SEA) @ HOU DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,500

Either Seager or Robinson Cano should have a good game tonight against Astros RHP Charlie Morton, while Jean Segura ($4400/$3200) and new two-hitter Mitch Haniger ($3600/$2000) have stacking appeal for the visiting Mariners. For Seager, it’s all about the platoon advantage, as he posted a 3.90 wOBA with a .231 ISO mark against RHP last season and launched 13 of his 30 homers on the road against righties. Morton is rocking a 1.74 WHIP with a 4.66 FIP while allowing LHB to hit .301 with a .375 wOBA throughout his career and he’s a big question mark coming into the 2017 season after spinning just 17 innings last year.

Potential Value

Travis Shaw: (MIL) vs. COL DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800

Longshot

Justin Turner: (LAD) vs. SD DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,700

Shortstops

Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. SD DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,800

It’s a Seager kind of night with both brothers facing mediocre RHP in good spots for their respective teams. Corey joined the Dodgers explosion on Opening Day with a three-run homer and went cold with LHP Clayton Richard starting last night, but he should be able to produce against Padres righty Trevor Cahill, who is sporting a 1.68 K/BB ratio with a 4.49 FIP and a 0.98 HR/9 ratio when facing LHB throughout his career. Seager happened to take Cahill deep last year and he was far more productive at Dodger Stadium with a .319 batting average and .932 OPS at home.

Potential Value

Elvis Andrus: (TEX) vs. CLE DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,800

Longshot

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. MIA DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,700

Outfielders

George Springer: (HOU) vs. SEA DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,900

Springer is relatively cheap on both main DFS sites as we open the season and he opened the year with a homer in his first at-bat. Tonight the righty-heavy Astros are worth stacking (consider Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve as well) against a LHP in James Paxton who throws very hard and is therefor susceptible to the very short porch in LF at Minute Maid Park if he tries to run the ball in on those powerful RHB. Springer posted great batted ball data with a 40.2% Hard Contact Rate and 28.6% HR/FB ratio when facing lefties last season, so if he squares up a fastball from Paxton there’s a very good chance it’s headed into the seats.

Yasmany Tomas: (ARI) vs. SF DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,900

He’s yet to really tag Matt Moore over 8 career plate appearances, but Tomas posted some eye-popping numbers against the platoon last year. He led the Majors with a .460 wOBA and posted a .326 ISO mark along with a 23.2% K-Rate when facing LHP last season, so he’s clearly a boom or bust play. But Tomas and Goldschmidt can form the heart of a D’Backs stack against Moore, who was often ineffective indoors and struggled at hitter-friendly parks such as Chase Field last year.

Potential Values

A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. SF DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,500
Gerardo Parra: (COL) @ MIL DK: $4,000 / FD: $2,800
Ender Inciarte: (ATL) vs. SD DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,800

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