Plays of the Day
Value: Steve Pearce is an appealing value on DK and a solid addition to a Blue Jays stack in the OF on FanDuel tonight since he should platoon against Rays southpaw Blake Snell. As a rookie, Snell lost steam down the stretch and posted a 4.86 ERA while allowing opposing batters to post a .413 wOBA during August. Pearce hit .317 with a .428 wOBA against LHP and that number rose to a startlingly high .534 wOBA with a 250 wRC+ on the road against lefties.
Fade: Jeff Samardzija is the highest-priced SP on the slate because of his upside, but he also comes with a considerable amount of risk in a tough draw at Chase Field. The slugging D’Backs make the most of their hitter’s park and Samardzija is far more effective when out in the elements.
Team Target Stacks
Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Steve Pearce
Astros: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Evan Gattis
Strong winds blowing out to CF at Citi Field tonight for the Mets and Braves game, but no real chance of delays on the main slate.
Marcus Stroman: (TOR) @ TB DK: $8,700/FD: $7,500
It’s very surprising to see Stroman priced below several pitchers on FanDuel, as he’s the best overall option in my mind tonight. The young RHP made some adjustments over the winter and his new arsenal was on full display during the World Baseball Classic, where he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against a Puerto Rico team that was chalk full of Major Leaguers and earned the tournament’s MVP award. He should be ready to crush for the Blue Jays this year and faces a Rays team tonight that posted the highest K-Rate (24.5%) with the lowest collective batting average (.243) amongst A.L. teams last year.
Garrett Richards: (LAA) @ OAK DK: $7,000 / FD: $7,400
Musgrove can serve as a good salary relief option on DK and a potential pivot off Stroman on FanDuel if you believe that all of the so-called top pitching options will falter this evening. He’s coming of a stellar rookie campaign in which he posted a 21.5% K-Rate and .249 BAA over 11 appearances. While he faltered after his first couple of outings, Musgrove has shown the ability to make adjustments throughout his Minor League career and he has a couple of great “Out” pitches in a one-seam sinker and a hooking flat slider. It’s entirely possible that he outpitches fellow sophomore and LHP Ariel Miranda, who could struggle against a righty-heavy Astros lineup.
Matt Harvey: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $8,100 / FD: $8,300
Much more of a GPP option considering his up-and-down 2016 season, it’s worth hoping that Harvey begins 2017 on a good note against a very weak opponent. Atlanta’s offense has so far been quite lifeless and completely unable to produce against Noah Syndergaard or Jacob DeGrom, so Harvey could follow the lead of his younger teammates. He showed some promise with 17 K’s over 22.2 IP against Atlanta last season and current Braves are batting a collective .217 (20-for-92) with just 1 HR and 21 K’s in their careers against The Dark Knight.
Buster Posey: (SF) @ ARI DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,700
After his first productive outing of the season, Posey is worth the significant price bump on FanDuel if you want more safety than a boom-bust play such as Evan Gattis. The Giants veteran is just 2-for-9 with 3 BB in his career against D’Backs southpaw Robbie Ray, but is overall quite dangerous against the platoon with a career .326 batting average and .399 wOBA when facing lefties. Ray struggled with the long ball last year, posting a 15.5% HR/FB ratio and a 4.90 ERA and he struggled at Chase Field, where he allowed RHB to hit .304 with a 41.5% Hard Contact Rate last season.
Travis d’Arnaud: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,500
He has the platoon advantage against Braves LHP Jaime Garcia, who really struggled last season.
Evan Gattis: (HOU) vs. SEA DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,700
Gattis mashed with a .355 wOBA and .262 ISO mark against the platoon last season and is a candidate to lake LHP Ariel Miranda deep.
Steve Pearce: (TOR) @ TB DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,000 as OF
On tonight’s short slate it’s relatively tough to find an appealing option at 1B considering top options Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman both face SPs that have owned them in the past. Pearce is an appealing value on DK and a solid addition to a Blue Jays stack in the OF on FanDuel tonight since he should platoon against Rays southpaw Blake Snell. As a rookie, Snell lost steam down the stretch and posted a 4.86 ERA while allowing opposing batters to post a .413 wOBA during August. Pearce hit .317 with a .428 wOBA against LHP and that number rose to a startlingly high .534 wOBA with a 250 wRC+ on the road against lefties.
Kendry Morales: (TOR) @ TB DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,900
If Morales draws the start against a lefty he’ll be able to serve as an alternative on FD as a value addition to a Blue Jays stack.
Brandon Belt: (SF) @ ARI DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,900
He’s somehow 3-for-7 with a double and triple in his career against Robbie Ray, so consider Belt in that LvL matchup this evening.
Devon Travis: (TOR) @ TB DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,400
As long as he remains dirt cheap on FanDuel and appears likely to lead off for a Toronto lineup that’s still very potent, Travis will be worth a look. He hit .317 against LHP as a rookie and that average dropped to .289 last year, but he remains the Blue Jays best table setter against the platoon and has produced so far in two appearances as a leadoff man. Travis happened to go 3-for-4 with a pair of runs against Snell last season and he becomes a solid cash game option on DK after a significant price drop.
Brandon Phillips: (ATL) @ NYM DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,600
If Matt Harvey continues to struggle, you can bet on Phillips producing against him.
Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. SEA DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,900
Still one of the most dangerous RHB against the platoon, Altuve could be worth paying up for as part of an Astros stack.
Josh Donaldson: (TOR) @ TB DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,900
One more Blue Jays bat to consider as the heart of the stack tonight, Donaldson is 4-for-9 with a BB on the young season and he should have another productive game indoors at Tropicana Field, where the Florida Native has smashed 4 HR over the past two seasons. Rays LH starter Blake Snell gave up a 27.6% Line Drive Rate to RHB last season and Donaldson was once again amongst the league leaders with a .240 ISO mark and .396 wOBA against LHP last year.
Eduardo Nunez: (SF) @ ARI DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,800
An absolute grinder who excels in plus matchups against LHP, Nunez has plenty of upside at a modest price tag on FanDuel.
Adonis Garcia: (ATL) @ NYM DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,400
Stacking against Matt Harvey is as likely to work as using the Mets RHP on his own.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
He’s consistently under priced on DK and Cabrera is definitely worth consideration against struggling southpaw Jaime Garcia tonight. The veteran switch hitter continued to struggle against a pitcher that’s owned him in Bartolo Colon yesterday, but should have more success against Garcia, who he happens to be 3-for-5 against with 2 doubles and a SB in his career. Garcia fell apart with a career-worst 4.67 ERA and a 20.2% HR/FB ratio that’s downright stunning for a ground ball pitcher, so he’s worth targeting with the improved Mets lineup.
Jose Reyes: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,700 as 3B
Another solid addition to a Mets stack against Garcia.
Troy Tulowitzki: (TOR) @ TB DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800
While Tulo looked washed up last year, he could bounce back in 2017 and he’s been elite against LHP throughout his career.
George Springer: (HOU) vs. SEA DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,900
He’s on fire to begin the year and draws another plus matchup tonight with aforementioned young southpaw Ariel Miranda visiting Minute Maid Park. Springer’s late-game heroics led the Astros to a victory over Seattle’s LH starter James Paxton and he’s now 4-for-13 with 2 HR and 6 RBI through 3 games this season. The powerful RHB posted a 40.2% Hard Contact Rate and a ridiculous 28.6% HR/FB ratio when facing LHP last season, so hard hit balls off tonight’s starter will be no fluke.
A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. SF DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,600
After his 2016 season was derailed by a freak accident last spring, Pollock slipped through the cracks as an elite DFS option to an extent, but he’s been one of the best plays of 2017 with 7 H, including 2 doubles and a HR, 3 runs, 3 RBI and a SB to produce double-digit FPs in each of the D’Backs 3 games so far. Tonight he faces a hard-throwing RHP in Jeff Samardzija, who has had his way with some of Arizona’s batters, but Pollock is 2-for-4 in a limited sample against The Shark and you never know how the Giants mercurial starter will perform on the road.