Plays of the Day
Value: Matt Holliday has flashed some upside as the Yankees new cleanup man and he’ll hit at another great offensive ballpark in Camden Yards today. The O’s send LHP Wade Miley to the mound after he posted a 5.37 ERA with a troublesome 16.2% HR/FB ratio with 2 different teams last year and coughed up a 1.53 HR/9 ratio when facing righties. Holliday posted a .267 ISO mark against the platoon last season and has a career .388 wOBA against LHP.
Fade: It’s hard to trust Stephen Strasburg as the top option on any given slate and the weather isn’t exactly perfect in Philly, so who knows how long The Orchid will last. The Phillies young lineup is coming alive over their past few games and could surprise as a contrarian stack.
Team Target Stacks
Nationals: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Adam Lind
Astros: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber
Strong winds blowing IN at Detroit and in Texas.
Jake Arrieta: (CHC) @ MIL DK: $9,600/FD: $10,400
He established that he’s bouncing back to an extent this season, as Arrieta allowed just a sole unearned run with 6 K’s and 4 hits allowed in his season debut against a tough Cardinals team. Now he faces a Brewers team that is also dangerous, but posted the highest K-Rate (25.5%) in the Majors last year and current Brewers are 14-for-58 (.241) with 15 K’s in their careers against Arrieta. He was victimized by the long ball but held Milwaukee to a collective .175 batting average over 3 meetings last year and posted an 11-3 record and 1.04 WHIP on the road in 2016.
Carlos Martinez: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $10,000/FD: $9,200
He looked every bit the breakout star while going 7.1 scoreless innings with 10 K’s and no walks against the world series champion Cubs lineup and Martinez was only unlucky enough to not get credit for a Win due to a lapse from the Cardinals bullpen. Yet he still gets the new Quality Start bonus on FanDuel and it would be shocking if he fell short of another QS in a much easier home matchup against a Reds team that was average in just about every offensive category last year. C-Mart went 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 44 K’s over 41.2 IP against Cincy last season and he’s only improved as a pitcher since then.
Julio Teheran: (ATL) @ PIT DK: $8,700 / FD: $8,000
He’s only a mid-tier value today, but Teheran should provide some salary relief while potentially flirting with as much as production as the top SP on the board. He posted notable home/road splits over the past couple of seasons, but performed very well (6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 6 K’s) in an appearance at the Mets to open the season and travels to another pitcher-friendly ballpark in Pittsburgh. Andrew McCutchen (5-for-15, 2 HR) is essentially the only Bucco to flash some power against Teheran, as the rest of the team is a combined 15-for-69 (.217) with 1 XBH and 13 K’s in their careers against the Braves ace.
Lance McCullers Jr.: (HOU) vs. KC DK: $9,900/FD: $8,900
He’s not a longshot because he’s an erratic SP, but more because of the matchup against a Royals team that doesn’t strike out too often. Yet KC also scored the third-fewest runs with the second-lowest collective wOBA (.307) amongst A.L. teams last season, so it seems unlike that McCullers would completely implode at home after holding down an excellent Mariners offense in his 2016 debut. One of the more talented pitchers in his age group, the third-year SP worked on his great splitter and elicited a whopping 16 ground ball outs while spinning 6 innings of one-run ball against Seattle. It’s worth hoping that he mows down the Royals and receives good run support with truly erratic RHP Nate Karns going for the visitors.
Welington Castillo: (BAL) vs. NYY DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,700
The former Diamondback is off to a good start in the hitter-friendly A.L. East with 4 hits and a BB over 15 plate appearances and he could flash a little upside against ancient LHP C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees former ace looked showered last year while getting consistently roughed up and allowing a 1.13 HR/9 ratio with a 4.31 FIP when facing RHB, while Castillo was a bit of a platoon specialist who posted a .367 wOBA and .243 ISO mark while doing plenty of damage against the platoon.
Austin Romine: (NYY) @ BAL DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,100
He should take over catching duties with Gary Sanchez injured and draws a good matchup against LHP Wade Miley.
Brian McCann: (HOU) vs. KC DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,600
McCann is a candidate to go Yarbo off Royals RHP Nate Karns.
Matt Holliday: (NYY) @ BAL DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,100 as OF
This is more of a longshot and a contrarian play while Anthony Rizzo ($5100/$4100) stands out as the obvious top option against a vulnerable young RHP in Zach Davies. Yet Holliday has flashed some upside as the Yankees new cleanup man and he’ll hit at another great offensive ballpark in Camden Yards today. The O’s send LHP Wade Miley to the mound after he posted a 5.37 ERA with a troublesome 16.2% HR/FB ratio with 2 different teams last year and coughed up a 1.53 HR/9 ratio when facing righties. Holliday posted a .267 ISO mark against the platoon last season and has a career .388 wOBA against LHP. Maybe the veteran has one or two more bombs left in him in this type of plus matchup.
Adam Lind: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400
He should get his hacks against RHP Jeremy Hellickson.
Jose Abreu: (CWS) @ MIN DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,200
He’s been quiet thus far this season but Abreu has good splits against Twins RHP Ervin Santana and could come alive today.
Daniel Murphy: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,600
Speaking of attacking Phillies RHP Jeremy Hellickson with lefties, Murphy is a good candidate to stack against the inconsistent starter. While Hellickson looked like he’s making an effort to pitch to contact more and avoid giving up XBH or HR, he’s still coming off a couple of rough campaigns, including a season in which he posted a 4.62 ERA with a 13.3% HR/FB ratio in the N.L. West. He posted a 1.39 WHIP with a 1.18 HR/9 ratio when facing lefties last year and faces a lefty-heavy Nationals lineup that includes Murphy, who happens to be 4-for-12 with a HR and 3 doubles in his career against Hellickson.
Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) @ DET DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
He’s still dangerous against the platoon and should produce against LHP Daniel Norris.
Kolten Wong: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,400
Wong could serve as a dirt cheap option with upside if he’s in the Cards lineup against RHP Scott Feldman.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) @ MIL DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,100
Sure enough, Bryant served as the heart of a Cubs stack last night and he’s worth rolling with again in a matchup against RHP Zach Davies. The Brewers SP gave up plenty of power to RHB and LHB alike and righties actually posted a higher HR/FB ratio (13.3%) against him last year. We’ve seen Bryant go on these type of hot streaks and he’s definitely worth paying up for after raking 2 doubles and a single to produce 3 RBI in Saturday’s slugfest at hitter-friendly Miller Life Park.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
Another addition to a Nationals stack with modest upside in his own right.
Marwin Gonzalez: (HOU) vs. KC DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,600 as 1B
A dark horse candidate to add to an Astros stack against Karns.
Manny Machado: (BAL) vs. NYY DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,800 at 3B
He’s a nice pivot off Kris Bryant at 3B on FD and probably the best overall option at SS where eligible. Machado has owned Sabathia in the past with a .326 batting average (14-for-43) and he’s been great against the platoon for years. He’s started to heat up with a HR, SB and a double over his past two games and was a beast with a .356 batting average and .388 wOBA against LHP at Camden Yards last season.
Jhonny Peralta: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,700
A solid value to consider against vulnerable Reds RHP Scott Feldman.
Carlos Correa: (HOU) vs. KC DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,800
He could serve as a valuable addition to an Astros stack against Karns.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,700
He only produced modest numbers last night, but it’s worth rolling with Harper on the second half of a day-night doubleheader at a ballpark that he’s enjoyed in the past. He’s 3-for-9 with a whopping 7 walks in his career against Hellickson, and has made the RHP pay for some of those free passes with 2 SB in his career. Harper’s reached base in all 5 appearances so far this season and appears to be on his way back to MVP form.
Odubel Herrera: (PHI) vs. WAS DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,500
I don’t think you should be shying away from Phillies bats entirely after they erupted to produce 17 runs in a much easier matchup against Jeremy Guthrie and the Nats’ long relievers last night. Herrera’s numbers were obviously juked by that explosion, but he’s been a catalyst for the Phils over the past couple of seasons and is 7-for-18 with 5 BB and a SB while reaching base safely in all 5 appearances this year. Stephen Strasburg is slightly more vulnerable against the platoon and Herrera is a LHB with a great approach.