Plays of the Day
Value: Francisco Cervelli is one of several RHB on the Buccos with good numbers against the platoon, as he hit an impressive .385 over 52 at-bats against lefties last year. While he didn’t flash much power at all in those spots, he’s dirt cheap on both main DFS sites and could produce as part of a stack while the Pirates big bats do the bulk of the work.
Fade: Kris Bryant certainly got hot with 3 hits in each of his appearances this weekend and he’s posted elite numbers against the platoon, but Dodgers LHP Alex Wood is crafty enough to stay away from the barrel of his bat and perhaps befuddle the entire Cubs lineup if he’s on his game.
Team Target Stacks
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli
Mariners: Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz (Afternoon)
Rays: Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller (Afternoon)
Strong winds blowing OUT in Washington and Philly, chance of storms in Chicago tonight.
Justin Verlander: (DET) vs. BOS DK: $10,500/FD: $10,400 (Afternoon)
It’s awfully tempting to use Chris Sale and he’s an elite option as the most expensive arm on the slate, but Verlander could do even better a cheaper price tag. He’s facing an excellent Red Sox lineup that is apparently depleted by a flu running through the locker room and happens to have held current BoSox to a collective .190 batting average (18-for-94) with 20 K’s over 103 career plate appearances. He’s been on fire since the 2015 ASB and held opposing batters to a .193 average while posting a 10.53 K/9 ratio at home last season. Give him a long look after he struck out 10 White Sox in his season debut.
Jon Lester: (CHC) vs. LAD DK: $11,300/FD: $10,100
Clearly the best option on a short late slate, Lester aces a Dodgers team that he’s owned in the past, as current Dodgers are a combined 16-for-94 (.170) with 33 K’s over 100 career plate appearances against the lefty ace. The Dodgers posted the lowest collective batting average (.213) in the Majors against LHP last season and most of their most dangerous hitters happen to be lefties, which is part of the reason why Lester’s enjoyed facing them. He was elite with a 1.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .181 BAA at Wrigley Field last year and is certainly worth paying up for tonight.
Tyler Glasnow: (PIT) vs. CIN DK: $7,500 / FD: $4,400
While he proved to be erratic with a 5.05 BB/9 ratio over 7 appearances as a rookie, Glasnow also posted a 9.26 K/9 ratio in the Majors and a 10.82 K/9 ratio at the AAA level last season. Clearly there’s some upside there against a Reds team that posted mediocre offensive numbers last season. At 6-foot-7, Glasnow can really throw downhill against hitters and he could post good numbers over his first full MLB campaing if he can just control that plus stuff. At the cheapest price tag available on FanDuel, he’s worth the risk tonight.
Jacob deGrom: (NYM) @ PHI DK: $9,300/FD: $10,000
This is a surprisingly low price tag on DK for a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber and that almost makes him more of a value than a longshot. Philly posted the lowest collective wOBA (.296) in the Majors last year along with the fifth-highest K-Rate and deGrom is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and .211 BAA over his last 7 starts against the Mets divisional rivals. He got off to a good start in 2017 with just 2 hits allowed over 6 scoreless innings against the Braves and should carry that momentum into his second outing.
Francisco Cervelli: (PIT) vs. CIN DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,200
The Pirates face an inconsistent LHP tonight in Brandon Finngean, who posted a 5.19 FIP and has been hit for a lot of long balls with a 15.5% HR/FB ratio over 59 MLB appearances. Cervelli is one of several RHB on the Buccos with good numbers against the platoon, as he hit an impressive .385 over 52 at-bats against lefties last year. While he didn’t flash much power at all in those spots, he’s dirt cheap on both main DFS sites and could produce as part of a stack while the Pirates big bats do the bulk of the work.
Tony Wolters: (COL) vs. SD DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,100
He’s a great value for a player at Coors Field tonight if he cracks the Rockies lineup against RHP Trevor Cahill.
Willson Contreras: (CHC) vs. LAD DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,100
He came through against a LH starter on Friday and Contreras should get his hacks in against LHP Alex Wood tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ SF DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,700 (Afternoon)
His price tag is very surprising on DK given Goldschmidt’s matchup tonight and the elite upside he’s shown thus far in 2017. The MVP candidate is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 doubles over his last 4 appearances and he’s certainly capable of producing despite the massive dimensions of AT&T Ballpark. Goldy faces a LHP in Matt Moore, who posted a 1.32 WHIP with a 1.18 HR/9 ratio against RHB last season and the D’Backs slugger is 5-for-9 with a double and HR in his career against Moore.
Adam Lind: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,400
He produced against a weak RHP on Sunday and has seen plenty of fading veteran Adam Wainwright in his career.
Joey Votto: (CIN) @ PIT DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,900
If Glasnow struggles, expect Votto to crush him or at least draw several walks against a SP with shaky control.
Daniel Murphy: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,600
Murph is off to another hot start this season and while he only managed a single in a plus matchup on Sunday, he could launch one off a RHP that he’s owned in the past tonight. Adam Wainwright is a shell of his former self, posting a 4.62 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP over 33 appearances last year and he doesn’t match up well against a Nats team that tagged him for 4 ER on 3 HR in a meeting last season. Murphy is 8-for-17 with 3 XBH in his career against Waino and 12-for-25 so far in 2016.
Ben Zobrist: (CHC) vs. LAD DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,000
The switch hitter is very dangerous against LHP and could serve as a good addition to a Cubs stack tonight.
Ryan Schimpf: (SD) @ COL DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,400
Schimpf has a ton of pop from the left side of the plate and he could tag Rockies RHP Tyler Chatwood at Coors.
Nolan Arenado: (COL) vs. SD DK: $5,300 / FD: $4,900
He’s obviously the Rockies best hitter and a premier addition to a stack tonight against a vulnerable SP. Trevor Cahill is a veteran, who really struggled with the long ball last year as a reliever, posting a 4.35 FIP that was mostly the product of a 18.4% HR/FB ratio. That certainly doesn’t bode well for his prospects at Coors Field and if he’s unable to elicit ground balls then a slugger like Arenado is bound to produce. The all-star is 8-for-22 (.364) with 2 HR and 2 doubles on the young season after posting a .312 batting average with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio at Coors last year.
Chase Headley: (NYY) @ TB DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,900 (Afternoon)
We’ve seen mixed results from Rays RHP Alex Cobb over the past couple of seasons and Headley is red-hot from the left side of the dish.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) vs. KC DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,100 as 1B
He’s flashed a lot of power so far this season and could go yard off Royals RHP Ian Kennedy.
Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. HOU DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300 (Afternoon)
The Mariners just faced Astros RHP Charlie Morton in Houston and now they’ll get another look at him at home. Segura went 2-for-3 with a homer off Morton in that contest and he’s been productive throughout his early career with Seattle. It’s worth adding him to a stack against a RHP that posted a 14.8% HR/FB ratio over his last two seasons and a 21.1% Line Drive Rate during that span.
Alen Hansen: (PIT) vs. CIN DK: $3,300 / FD: NA
He could start tonight with Josh Harrison (leg) potentially out and is a talented young infielder.
Brandon Crawford: (SF) vs. ARI DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
The Giants are seeing Taijuan Walker for the second time this season and Crawford definitely could produce with the platoon advantage in this matchup.
Charlie Blackmon: (COL) vs. SD DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,500
The Rockies have plenty of upside against a vulnerable RHP in Cahill and Blackmon could serve as the head of that stack as a lefty with both power and speed. He’s 6-for-12 in his career against Cahill and was struggling to begin the year until he found his offense at Coors with 4 H, including a triple and a HR over 2 starts this weekend. He hit .335 with a .398 wOBA at Coors last year and posted an overall .405 wOBA against RHP in 2016.
Starling Marte: (PIT) vs. CIN DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,700
We mentioned Francisco Cervelli as a solid value option and part of a Pirates stack, but Marte has the most upside of any player in black and gold. He’s been heating up throughout the first week of the season and capitalized on a plus matchup with 4 H, including a HR to effectively blow up against the Braves on Sunday. Now he’ll face an erratic LHP in Brandon Finnegan and he posted a 12.5% HR/FB ratio when facing lefties last year, while he also carries upside with his speed.