Plays of the Day
Value: Mitch Haniger is still priced at the minimum on FanDuel despite producing an XBH or HR in 4 straight appearances. He also has upside with his speed and faces a vulnerable RHP tonight in Mike Fiers.
Fade: Whatever magic Carlos Correa discovered during his rookie year, he seems to have lost it and it’s hard to trust him in a matchup against ground-ball heavy RHP Yovani Gallardo on the road tonight.
Team Target Stacks
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Chris Owings
Mariners: Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Pablo Sandoval
Mets: Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes
Chance of rain delays in San Francisco tonight.
John Lackey: (CHC) vs. LAD DK: $9,900/FD: $9,000
Lackey was a completely different pitcher in front of the Wrigley Faithful last year with a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home compared to a 4.37 ERA on the road. He doesn’t draw the easiest matchup tonight by any means, but could continue to find success against a Dodgers team that’s a combined 16-for-70 with 12 K’s and just 2 XBH in their collective careers against him. He was solid on the road against a Cardinals team that’s given him trouble in the past and is worth paying up for with the Cubs offense more than capable of teeing off on Dodgers RHP Brandon McCarthy.
Marcus Stroman: (TOR) vs. MIL DK: $9,300/FD: $8,600
Sure enough, Stroman’s electric performance in the World Baseball Classic carried over into the regular season, as he spun 6.1 innings of one-run ball, struck out 5 and elicited 10 ground balls in an excellent season debut at Tampa. Now he’ll pitch at home, where he posted better batted ball data and put fewer runners on base with a 1.26 WHIP last year. While Stroman is starting to realize his limitations and pitch for more ground balls than strikeouts, he has some upside against a Brewers team that led the Majors with a 25.5% K-Rate last year and is first this season with a 31.9% K-Rate thus far.
Ivan Nova: (PIT) vs. CIN DK: $8,000 / FD: $7,400
While it came against the Braves, Nova’s 2017 season debut was pretty impressive and unsurprising considering how he performed in plus matchups last season. The crafty RHP enjoyed moving form the hitter-friendly ballparks of the A.L. East to the N.L. Central, as he posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while spinning 3 complete games over 11 appearances for the Pirates. He continued to pitch well at PnC Park last week and posted a 2.45 ERA with a .238 BAA and 3-1 record in Pittsburgh last season. That adds up to a very reliable mid-tier option for your cash game lineups.
Amir Garrett: (CIN) @ PIT DK: $5,800/FD: $6,100
We would be remiss if we didn’t mention the Reds rookie LHP after his excellent MLB debut last week. Garrett spun six scoreless innings and allowed just 2 hits to outduel former Reds SP Mike Leake and he was pulled after throwing just 78 pitches for some reason. It appears the Majors will need a bit of an adjustment period to time up a crafty lefty who posted a 2.48 ERA between the AA and AAA level last season. The Pirates are just 8-for-52 (.154) to post the fourth-lowest collective batting average against lefties so far this season and have generally struggled to scratch out runs.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,600
You can simply stick with Realmuto after a decent performance last night with the Marlins facing an even more vulnerable pitcher this evening. Braves LHP Jaime Garcia is coming off his worth campaign in eight years in which he posted a 4.67 ERA with a matchup FIP (4.49) and allowed RHB to post a .346 wOBA with a 1.43 WHIP against the platoon. Realmuto has hit safely in all six appearances this year and is batting .462 during that span, while he sports a .176 ISO mark in his career against lefties.
Sandy Leon: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,500
A valuable addition to a Red Sox stack if he can catch knuckler Steven Wright.
Brian McCann: (HOU) @ SEA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
Could tee off on mediocre RHP Yovani Gallardo.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ SF DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,700
If it seems as though we’re recommending Goldschmidt a lot, it’s because he remains under priced on DK and he’s been remarkably consistent with just one goose egg all season. It’s also because the D’Backs might the best stacking option of the slate against washed-up RHP Matt Cain, who posted a 5.79 ERA two season ago, a 5.64 ERA last year and was knocked around for 4 ER on 6 hits with 2 HR at massive Petco Park in his 2017 debut. Current D’Backs are hitting a collective .325 (40-for-123) with 12 XBH and 3 HR in their careers against the veteran and Goldy accounts for 4 XBH and one of those homers in recent years.
Kendrys Morales: (TOR) vs. MIL DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000
He had a great game last night and might continue to bat third against vulnerable RHP Chase Anderson if Josh Donaldson (calf) remains out.
Hanley Ramirez: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,400
Seemingly over the flu and back in the cleanup spot for Boston, Hanley could have a big night against Ubaldo Jimenez.
Rougned Odor: (TEX) @ LAA DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300
The Rangers are also an elite stacking option tonight against former A’s RHP Jesse Chavez, who they’ve faced in the past and against whom Odor is 4-for-6 with a HR and a pair of doubles. Chavez allowed LHB to hit .307 with a .364 wOBA and posted an awfully high 1.75 WHIP against the platoon last year, so a lefty like Odor has a very solid floor tonight. He’s reached base in all 7 appearances so far this year and flashed some power in the Rangers opening games, while he can see added upside as a cog in that elite lineup.
Howie Kendrick: (PHI) vs. NYM DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,800 as OF
He produced against Matt Harvey last night and draws an easier matchup against rusty RHP Zack Wheeler tonight.
Brandon Drury: (ARI) @ SF DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,800
Could join a productive D’Backs stack and happened to go 3-for-3 against Cain last season..
Jake Lamb: (ARI) @ SF DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,400
In another episode of “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” we keep rolling with Lamb as the matchups get better and better for Arizona. The D’Backs usual cleanup man drove in three runs with a single and a huge triple last night and now he faces a showered veteran in Matt Cain, who allowed LHB to hit .312 with a .386 wOBA ad posted a 1.65 WHIP against the platoon last season. Lamb is now posting some fantastic splits in his career at AT&T Park and seems to know how to find the corners of that massive stadium rather than trying to hit anything into McCovey Cove.
Eduardo Nunez: (SF) vs. ARI DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,700
He was also great last night with 4 hits and a steal, so why not use him against vulnerable RHP Shelby Miller?
Pablo Sandoval: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,500
Perhaps Sandoval finally produces for the Red Sox in tonight’s plus matchup against a RHP that was very vulnerable against the platoon last year.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) @ PHI DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,900
The Mets were on fire last night and it began with the top of their lineup, and Cabrera in the two-hole. He should bat second tonight against a RHP in Vince Velasquez, who posted high strikeout numbers (10.44 K/9 ratio) last year but also gave up a 1.44 HR/9 ratio with a 4.12 ERA. Velasquez posted a 1.43 WHIP and 2.88 K/BB ratio against the platoon, so he clearly prefers to face righties and Cabrera is a switch hitter with 3 hits over 6 at-bats against the Phillies second-year starter.
Chris Owings: (ARI) @ SF DK: $3,200 / FD:$3,200
Owings has also only zeroed out once all season and he has tremendous upside as a value against Matt Cain.
Corey Seager: (LAD) @ CHC DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,800
He could easily take Lackey deep if the Cubs RHP makes any mistakes. Troy Tulowitzki ($4100/$2800) is a good value on FanDuel.
Giancarlo Stanton: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,600
It’s at least worth speculating on Stanton tonight in a plus matchup that would be surefire gold last year, we just don’t know if Jaime Garcia will continue to struggle quite that badly. The lefty is normally a ground ball pitcher, but posted the highest HR/FB ratio (20.2%) in the Majors along with his worst ERA (4.67) and FIP (4.49) since he was a rookie back in 2008. Now he’s a member of a Braves team that struggles to score and he’s almost 31 years old, so it’s hard to imagine a significant turnaround. Stanton hit .273 with a .295 ISO mark against lefties last year and posted an absurd .525 ISO mark against lefties the previous year before he got hurt.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. HOU DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,600
Cruz is starting to flash some upside as the weather warms up and he’s a prime target as part of a Mariners stack tonight. I can’t fathom why Astros RHP Mike Fiers is priced so high after struggling in each of his last two campaigns and barely making a spot in the rotation with a mediocre spring. Fiers had poor reverse platoon splits in allowing RHB to hit .284 with a .358 wOBA last season and he coughed up an alarming 1.65 HR/9 ratio to righties as well. Cruz is obviously one of the premier power hitters in the game and he could tee off on this vulnerable SP.