Plays of the Day
Value: We were hoping Travis d’Arnaud would wake up over his last few games and so were the Mets, as he came through with a game-winning homer as one of 4 hits to produce 40 DK points (53.6 FD points) last night. That makes him 7-for-13 over his last 3 starts and he’s definitely worth a look tonight against inconsistent LHP Adam Conley.
Fade: Clayton Kershaw is extremely expensive now that he’s no longer pitching at Coors Field, but he still draws a tough matchup against a D’Backs lineup that mashes lefties. He’s no ordinary lefty, but still a bit tough to trust and mortgage the rest of your lineup.
Team Target Stacks
Reds: Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez
Twins: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler
Indians: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Guyer
Mets: Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubabl Cabrera, Travs d’Arnaud
Mariners: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano
Chance of rain delays in Minnesota tonight.
Noah Syndergaard: (NYM) @ MIA DK: $11,400/FD: $11,200
All things being equal, Syndergaard has as much upside as any SP in the league right now, yet he’s far cheaper than Clayton Kershaw in a tough matchup, while he faces a strikeout-prone Marlins lineup. Current Marlins are 17-for-61 (.279) in their careers against Thor, but are sporting a 37% K-Rate during those at-bats. Syndergarrd just struck out 9 Marlins while eliciting 12 ground ball outs and allowing 2 runs (1 earned) over 7 dominant innings against this team and he’s clearly on a mission after getting snubbed for N.L. CY Young consideration last year.
Johnny Cueto: (SF) vs. COL DK: $11,600/FD: $9,000
This is almost purely a recommendation on FanDuel, where Cueto is somehow the eight-most expensive SP on a full slate in which he’s the SP2 on DraftKings. Say what you will about his strikeout upside next to Thor or Clayton Kershaw, but the RHP knows how to deal and he’s facing a Rockies team that’s struggled to produce runs whether they’re at their home ballpark or on the road so far this season. Cueto’s been very solid whenever he draws a plus matchup at AT&T Park, where he posted a 2.46 FIP and 5.29 K/BB ratio last year and he has a good shot to earn some run support with inexperienced LHP Tyler Anderson coming to town.
Julio Teheran: (ATL) vs. SD DK: $8,500 / FD: $8,500
Even in a relatively tough matchup at Pittsburgh, Teheran hung his own while pitching around some bad defense to allow 2 unearned runs over 7 strong innings. Now he returns home to face a Padres lineup that is annually one of the worst in the MLB and he’s posted a 3.02 ERA with a .223 BAA and an 8.54 K/9 ratio in his career at Atlanta’s Turner Field. He’s yet to allow an earned this season and is molding into a true ace for the Braves.
Dallas Keuchel: (HOU) @ OAK DK: $9,600/FD: $8,900
Keuchel has been lights out over his first 2 appearances in similar fashion to how he performed while contending for a CY Young back in 2015. He’s excelled in a couple of matchups at home, where he’s dominated for a couple of seasons, but it’s hardly concerning to see him travel to massive Oakland Coliseum and face an A’s lineup that posted the lowest collective wOBA (.302) amongst A.L. teams last year. Oakland hit just .244 against lefties last season and current A’s are just 25-for-109 (.229) in their carrers against Keuchel.
Travis d’Arnaud: (NYM) @ MIA DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,800
We were hoping d’Arnaud would wake up over his last few games and so were the Mets, as he came through with a game-winning homer as one of 4 hits to produce 40 DK points (53.6 FD points) last night. That makes him 7-for-13 over his last 3 starts and he’s definitely worth a look tonight against inconsistent LHP Adam Conley, who has already coughed up a pair of homers this year after posting a 4.84 xFIP last season. Conley struggles with walks as well as the long ball, giving d’Arnaud a decent floor-ceiling combination.
Nick Hundley: (SF) vs. COL DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,700
He should fill in with Buster Posey on the concussion DL.
Roberto Perez: (CLE) vs. DET DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,000
Perhaps he draws a start against LHP Daniel Norris. If not, consider Yan Gomes ($3200/$2100) as part of an Indians stack.
Joey Votto: (CIN) vs. MIL DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,800
Votto might be overlooked to an extent in a LvL matchup against Brewers southpaw Tommy Milone, but he hit .314 with a .371 wOBA against lefties last year and is certainly capable of succeeding in this plus matchup. Milone has been a prime stacking target with a 9.00 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over 2 starts this season and there’s little reason to expect that to change, since regressing to the mean would simply mean coming closer to the 5.71 ERA and 21.4% HR/FB ratio he posted last year. Votto could do damage against Milone or the Brewers bullpen, but chances are he’ll be productive at home.
Matt Adams: (STL) @ NYY DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,300
Adams will be worth a look at Yankee Stadium if he starts against struggling RHP Masahiro Tanaka.
Edwin Encarnacion: (CLE) vs. DET DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,400
He has immense upside against vulnerable LHP Daniel Norris.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. CWS DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,700
Dozier continues to flash tremendous upside with a homer two games ago and a stolen base yesterday as he’s become one of the true dual threats in the game. He could serve as the heart of a Twins stack tonight against rookie RHP Dylan Covey, who has never pitched above the AA level and allowed 11 ER over 12.2 IP in his first matchups with MLB hitters during spring training. Dozier and the hot-hitting Twins lineup should be all over him at home tonight.
Rougned Odor: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,600
He’s at least cheap on FanDuel and worth a look against aging veteran RHP Felix Hernandez.
Matt Carpenter: (STL) @ NYY DK: $4,200 as 1B / FD: $3,000
Another lefty with plenty of upside against Tanaka at Yankee Stadium.
Nolan Arenado: (COL) @ SF DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,800
Even if he goes 0-for-2 in his first couple of at-bats against Cueto, I’ll take a few ABs from Arenado at just $4K on DraftKings. It’s fitting that he’s dirt cheap on that site, where you probably won’t use Cueto anyways because of his lofty price tag and are less likely to have cross-exposure with that SP/hitter combo. Arenado is doing his thing with a .308 batting average and .990 OPS, as he’s walked 5 times and struck out only 7 times so far this year and he’s a decent 5-for-20 with a double, HR and two walks in his career against Cueto.
Eduardo Nunez: (SF) vs. COL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
Nunez was quiet last night but generally more productive against the platoon and worth a look against LHP Tyler Anderson.
Eugenio Suarez: (CIN) vs. MIL DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,300
Could serve as a great addition to a Reds stack against LHP Tommy Milone.
Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. ARI DK: $4,200 / FD: $2,900
At a downright cheap price tag on FanDuel, it’s easy to take a chance on Seager against D’Backs RHP Zack Greinke despite the fact that the former ace posted good numbers in his last start. Greinke is still vulnerable with a declining fastball and he posted a 1.41 HR/9 Ratio with a 4.11 FIP against LHB last season. Seager happens to be 5-for-8 with 2 HRs and 2 walks in his career against Greinke and he’s starting to heat up with a HR or XBH in 3 straight appearances.
Zack Cozart: (CIN) vs. MIL DK: $3,600 / FD:$3,000
Another RHB worth consideration against LHP Tommy Milone.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) vs. DET DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,100
Clearly could be worth paying up for as the heart of an Indians stack.
Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) @ MIA DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,200
Cespedes is certainly on one right now with 5 HR over his last 3 appearances and he draws a plus matchup against LHP Adam Conley tonight. While the Marlins are certain to be wary with the Mets most dangerous hitter, it only takes a single mistake for the red-hot Cepedes to go yard again. He’s 5-for-12 with 3 HR off lefties so far this year after hitting .341 with a .441 wOBA against the platoon last season.
Hunter Pence: (SF) vs. COL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
Pence is off to a great start this year and we can expect that to continue for as long as his tenuous health does. He’s facing a vulnerable LHP tonight in Tyler Anderson and has posted a .363 wOBA with a .218 ISO mark in his career against the platoon. Pence is 4-for-14 with a HR and a double against lefties this year and faces a southpaw who allowed righties to post a .363 wOBA with a 14.3% HR/FB ratio on the road last season.