Plays of the Day
Value: Logan Forsythe went 3-for-5 and hit a double off the SP in his last meeting with Rockies LHP Tyler Anderson contest. He’s been a lefty killer with a career .283 batting average and .355 wOBA against the platoon and is off to a great start with Big Blue this season.
Fade: Mike Trout is the most expensive hitter on the board in part because of his excellent numbers against the platoon, but Astros LHP Dallas Keuchel is no average southpaw. Trout has 12 hits, but also 12 K’s over 35 career at-bats against Keuchel, who is in a great groove to open the year.
Team Target Stacks
Reds: Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez
Astros: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Brian McCann
Indians: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Abraham Almonte
Red Sox: Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young
Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley, Aaron Judge
Rainout possible in Minnesota tonight, slight chance of delays in New York (Mets and Yankees playing).
Dallas Keuchel: (HOU) vs. LAA DK: $9,900/FD: $9,600
There are obvious options at the top of the board tonight in Kershaw and Bumgarner, but I’d rather go with another lefty who is pitching like an ace to open the season. Keuchel is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA while going 7 innings in all three of his starts this year and he’s been untouchable at home with a 2.48 ERA and .212 BAA over the last two seasons. Tonight he’ll face an Angels team that posted a weak .316 collective wOBA against LHP last season and is a combined 38-for-150 (.253) with 34 K’s in their careers against Keuchel.
Chris Archer: (TB) vs. DET DK: $9,700/FD: $9,300
You could see Archer’s improvement last year as he started to pitch to contact more often and utilize his slider to elicit a career-best 47.8% Ground Ball rate. He’s carried that momentum into 2017 with a 2.21 ERA and 2.02 FIP through 3 starts while posting a similar 46.6% GB rate. The Tigers have a dangerous offense but Victor Martinez is rapidly aging and Miguel Cabrera seems hobbled by a back injury, while current Tigers are batting a collective .203 (16-for-79) with 26 K’s over a relatively small sample against Archer, who posted a 2.65 ERA with a .213 BAA at home last season.
Jason Vargas: (KC) vs. SF DK: $5,300 / FD: $8,200
Vargas is so cheap on DK that he makes for an obvious play, and hopefully one that won’t burn you in a pretty good matchup at home. The Giants aren’t a particularly dangerous team against the platoon with a modest .222 batting average and a 20.8% K-Rate against lefties so far this season, as Buster Posey’s been out with a concussion and could show some signs of rust while trying to return. The Royals LHP has been incredible through two starts with a 7.00 K/BB ratio and just one run allowed over 13.2 IP, so It’s a bit surprising to see him priced as the third-cheapest SP on the slate by DraftKings.
Amir Garrett: (CIN) vs. BAL DK: $4,800/FD: $7,600
He’s even more of a bargain than Vargas on DK, but the Reds rookie LHP does come with a little more risk considering the lack of depth in his sample size. Yet Garrett followed his stellar MLB debut with a win in Pittsburgh and he’s shown an above average ability to keep righties off balance thus far. The O’s posted the lowest collective batting average (.234) amongst A.L. teams with an above average 22.5% K-Rate against lefties last year, so this is a decent matchup for Garrett and he should also get ample run support with weak RHP Ubaldo Jimenez going for the Orioles.
Travis d’Arnaud: (NYM) @ MIA DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,800
We were hoping d’Arnaud would wake up over his last few games and so were the Mets, as he came through with a game-winning homer as one of 4 hits to produce 40 DK points (53.6 FD points) last night. That makes him 7-for-13 over his last 3 starts and he’s definitely worth a look tonight against inconsistent LHP Adam Conley, who has already coughed up a pair of homers this year after posting a 4.84 xFIP last season. Conley struggles with walks as well as the long ball, giving d’Arnaud a decent floor-ceiling combination.
Christian Vazquez: (BOS) vs. TOR DK: $2,400 / FD: $2,600
He should start for Boston with the platoon advantage against LHP Francisco Liriano.
Travis d’Arnaud: (NYM) vs. PHI DK: $2,800 / FD: $3,100
Surprisingly cheap on DK given his upside in a decent matchup against RHP Vince Velazquez.
Joey Votto: (CIN) vs. BAL DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,800
The Reds face one of the more vulnerable RHP in the league tonight and Ubaldo Jimenez has been particularly vulnerable against hitters with Votto’s skill set. The powerful lefty hit .330 with a .429 wOBA and 41.2% Hard Contact Rate against RHP last year while Jimenez allowed LHB to post a .378 wOBA while giving up a 1.53 HR/9 ratio against the platoon last year. Jimenez has been tagged for 5 ER in consecutive outings to begin the year and travels to Great American Ballpark, which has one of the highest HR factors in the Majors.
Kendrys Morales: (TOR) @ BOS DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,900
Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello is regressing to open the year and that gives Morales some upside as the Blue Jays likely 3-hitter.
Edwin Encarnacion: (CLE) vs. MIN DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,400
He faces a rookie LHP tonight and could easily tee off.
Logan Forsythe: (LAD) vs. COL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,400
While they’re not at Coors Field, the Dodgers offense could certainly come alive against a vulnerable LHP in Tyler Anderson. The Rockies young southpaw was recently tagged for 5 ER at home by this Dodgers team before giving up 4 ER at San Francisco to bring his ERA to 8.59 over 3 outings this year. Forsythe went 3-for-5 in that contest and hit a double off Anderson, while he’s been a lefty killer with a career .283 batting average and .355 wOBA against the platoon. He’s off to a great start with Big Blue and could lead off for that lineup once again with a LH starter going.
Jose Peraza: (CIN) vs. BAL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,100
He finally flashed some upside with a SB last night and draws a great matchup against vulnerable RHP Ubaldo Jimenez tonight.
Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) vs. TOR DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,000
He’s 6-for-11 in his career against Liriano and hit an impressive .393 at Fenway against LHP last season.
Jake Lamb: (ARI) @ SD DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,900
While he’s become more expensive, Lamb is still clearly under priced on DK given how he’s performed to begin the season. The D’Backs lefty third baseman is hitting .313 with a 1.105 OPS over 13 games and he’s hitting .361 while reaching base in all 10 of his last appearances. Tonight Arizona’s lineup is worth stacking against wildly inconsistent RHP Jhoulys Chacin, who has been shelled in 2 of his 3 starts this year and struggled against the platoon throughout his career. Lamb has actually been great with a career .328 batting average at massive Petco Park, so there’s little reason to worry about the venue.
Chase Headley: (NYY) vs. CWS DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,400
Strangely cheap on DK given his .409 batting average on the young season and he’ll face a rookie RHP in Dylan Covey.
Alex Bregman: (HOU) vs. LAA DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400
Could serve as a great addition to an Astros stack against RHP J.C. Ramirez.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ MIN DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,100
Simply the best option at SS for lineups in any format, Lindor has been crushing it across the board with a .415/478/.805 slash line and 4 homers to open the season. He’s walked 5 times and only struck out 7 times, which shows you how well he’s seeing the ball and tonight he faces a LHP in Adalberto Mejia, who managed to baffle the white Sox relatively weak lineup in his first MLB start last week, but could certainly struggle against the defending A.L. champs. Lindor is hitting .364 on the road against lefties and he’s absolutely scalding the ball with a 41.5% Hard Contact Rate so far this year.
Tim Beckham: (TB) vs. DET DK: $2,900 / FD:$2,200
He’s been solid lately and faces a RHP in Jordan Zimmerman who has fallen off a cliff over the last couple seasons.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) vs. PHI DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,500
A switch hitter with plenty of upside towards the top of the Mets order against Velazquez.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) @ ATL DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,700
Now that he’s gotten out of his own head and started to groove the baseball again, Harper is a great GPP option on a nightly basis and he happens to face a RHP that’s really struggled against him tonight. Harper is 13-for-31 with 5 homers and 4 walks over 36 career plate appearances against Teheran, who has posted a 4.87 FIP with a 1.37 HR/9 ratio throughout his career when facing lefties. With a 23.5% HR/FB ratio and 34.4% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon so far this season, Harper clearly has elite upside.
Hanley Ramirez: (BOS) vs. TOR DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400 as 1B
Francisco Liriano travels to Fenway Park tonight and the results could either be disastrous or surprisingly pleasant for the rival Blue Jays. He’s a complete boom or bust LHP, who was at his absolute worst in his 2017 debut before bouncing back against the Orioles his next time out. Yet now he faces a Red Sox team that led the Majors with a collective .278 batting average against lefties last year, while HanRam hit .346 with a .453 wOBA and notable .331 ISO mark against the platoon last season. He’s a decent mid-tier play on DK while Chris Young ($2800/$2600) could serve as a great value alternative with the platoon advantage in this matchup.