Plays of the Day
Value: Wade Miley is off to a great start this season and will face a National League lineup tonight that embarrassingly failed to produce against weak RHP Ubaldo Jimenez last night. The Reds finished 2016 with the fourth-lowest collective batting average (.242) and 11th highest K-Rate (22.6%) against LHP, while Miley has the advantage of facing many of Cincy’s batters for the first time.
Fade: Stephen Strasburg faces the lowly Braves offense and he’s been solid so far this season, but the injury risk that comes with him combined with the Braves solid splits against the Nats ace (beginning with slugger Freddie Freeman) is enough to convince me to steer clear.
Team Target Stacks
Mariners: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings
Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Adam Lind, Daniel Murphy
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Randal Grichuk, Yadier Molina
Chance of delays late at Cincy, winds blowing out to RF in Oakland.
Noah Syndergaard: (NYM) vs. PHI DK: $11,800/FD: $11,200
If they’re offering Thor at a discount on both main DFS sites because he’s pitching with a blister and looked human in his last outing, I’ll take it. Syndergaard is still right up there with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer as the best play on a nightly basis and he draws a great matchup tonight at massive Citi Field. The Phillies are sporting the fifth-highest K-Rate (23%) along with the lowest collective wOBA (,296) on the young season and clearly represent a below average offensive team. Syndergaard’s allowed just 1 ER over 13 IP so far this year and he posted a 10.82 K/9 ratio with a 2.16 FIP at home last season.
James Paxton: (SEA) @ OAK DK: $9,600/FD: $9,000
Paxton definitely seems to have figured some things in his fourth MLB season, as he’s posted a pristine 0.00 ERA with a 1.38 FIP and 9.43 K/9 ratio to average 30.7 DK PPG (51 FD PPG) through 3 starts this year. Those outings came against dangerous offensive teams (Astros twice and Rangers), while he faces a weak Athletics lineup that posted the lowest collective wOBA (.302) amongst A.L. teams last year. Paxton’s 2.80 FIP belied his 3.79 ERA due to an unlucky .347 BABIP during an injury-plagued 2016 campaign and he seems to be firing on all cylinders to begin 2017.
Wade Miley: (BAL) @ CIN DK: $6,100 / FD: $7,400
Miley is another lefty who seems to have figured some things out over the offseason as he’s managed to stymy the Yankees and hold the Blue Jays in check over his first 2 starts of 2017. Now he’ll face a National League lineup that embarrassingly failed to produce against weak RHP Ubaldo Jimenez last night, while the Reds best hitter is a LHB who is much less dangerous in LvL matchups. The Reds finished 2016 with the fourth-lowest collective batting average (.242) and 11th highest K-Rate (22.6%) against LHP, while Miley has the advantage of facing many of Cincy’s batters for the first time.
Carlos Martinez: (STL) @ MIL DK: $9,000/FD: $9,300
Martinez became the first pitcher in about 100 years to record 8 walks and 11 K’s in his last outing and somehow came away with a positive result at Yankee Stadium. Now he faces a Brewers team that posted the highest K-Rate (25.5%) in the Majors last year and is sporting the same league-worst rate so far this year. Current Brewers are a sporting a 36.5% K-Rate with 23 K’s over 63 career at-bats against Martinez, who appears to be taking a step forward in terms of his stuff in his fourth year as a starter, he’ll just have to avoid issuing too many free passes in his fourth start of the season.
Salvador Perez: (KC) @ TEX DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,100
The Royals hefty backstop is starting to flash some consistency with 5 hits over his last 3 appearances and he managed to slug three homers over his previous 5 games. Perez may have the most upside of any catcher on this relatively short slate in a plus matchup against new Rangers RHP Andrew Cashner, who struggled in his 2017 debut at Seattle. Cashner posted a rough 5.30 ERA with a 1.30 HR/9 ratio last season and now he’ll have to try to keep the ball in the yard at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington.
Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. STL DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,400
Brewers new primary backstop is 10-for-20 with 5 doubles over his last 5 appearances.
Matt Wieters: (WAS) @ ATL DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,900
He certainly has enough power to give an R.A. Dickey knuckle a long ride.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ SD DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,400
The highest-priced hitter on this relatively short slate for good reason, Goldschmidt draws a juicy matchup against a vulnerable LHP in Clayton Richard. The ground-ball southpaw does well against certain types of hitters, but Goldschmidt has his number with 5 hits and 7 walks over 25 career plate appearances against Richard. He also has 4 stolen bases off Richard, who isn’t keeping the ball down enough while allowing 4 homers through 20 IP this year. Goldy hit .352 with a .449 wOBA against the platoon last year and could serve as the heart of a D’Backs stack tonight.
Mike Napoli: (TEX) vs. KC DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,900
More of a longshot with tons of upside, Napoli could crush an offering from Royals LHP Danny Duffy tonight.
Freddie Freeman: (ATL) vs. WAS DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,500
He’s on fire right now and actually has great career splits (14-for-35, 4 HR) in his career against Stephen Strasburg.
Robinson Cano: (SEA) @ OAK DK: $4,400 / FD: $4,200
Cano is starting to consistently produce with 5 hits and 3 walks over his last 3 appearances and he launched a homer during that span. You can expect solid results from the Mariners usual 3-hitter if the rest of that lineup comes alive against 32-year-old Cesar Valdez. The rookie RHP allowed lefties to hit .282 and posted a 1.27 WHIP against lefties at the AAA level last year, so he could clearly struggle against one of the best lefty-heavy lineups in the Majors. Cano doesn’t seem to mind to spacious confines of Oakland Coliseum with a .281 batting average, 11 doubles and 11 homers over the last 3 years against A’s pitching, so he’s worth the money tonight.
Yangervis Solarte: (SD) vs. ARI DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800 as 3B
Could be a solid addition to a small Padres stack against vulnerable LHP Patrick Corbin.
Jonathan Villar: (MIL) vs. STL DK: $4,500 / FD: $2,900
He’s simply too cheap on FanDuel for an elite speed threat who is facing a RHP that can’t stop walking people.
Mike Moustakas: (KC) @ TEX DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,200
He’s slowed down a bit since his red-hot start to the year, but Moose could warm up in a hurry as the Royals visit the Launching Pad down in Arlington, Texas over the weekend. Kansas City could get it going against RHP Andrew Cashner, who allowed lefties to post a .380 wOBA with a 5.33 FIP and 15.3% HR/FB ratio when facing the platoon. Moustakas does almost all of his damage against righties and he’s launched 4 homers over 37 at-bats off RHP to begin the year, so he’s clearly rediscovered his power stroke.
Travis Shaw: (MIL) vs. STL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,200
Shaw continues to flash upside and he could exceed the value of his price tag if C-Mart struggles for the Cardinals.
Kyle Seager: (SEA) @ OAK DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,700
Could serve as a great addition to a Mariners stack against RHP Cesar Valdez.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) vs. PHI DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,400
All Cabrera seems to do is produce from one of the top spots in the Mets order and he draws a decent matchup tonight against RHP Aaron Nola The Phillies talented young pitcher struggled a bit with a 1.04 HR/9 ratio and 3.99 FIP against the platoon last year while issuing 4.28 BB/9 to post a 1.50 WHIP against lefties on the road. The switch-hitting Cabrera is slightly more dangerous from the left side of the plate with a .208 ISO mark and 14.7% HR/FB ratio against RHP last season and he’s reasonably priced on both main DFS sites.
Zack Cozart: (CIN) vs. BAL DK: $3,600 / FD:$3,200
He has some experience against southpaw Wade Miley and could spark things for the Reds with the platoon advantage.
Elvis Andrus: (TEX) vs. KC DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,300
A high-upside addition to a Rangers stack if you believe Danny Duffy will struggle at the Launching Pad in Arlington.
Lorenzo Cain: (KC) @ TEX DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,700
Simply the most dangerous hitter in the Royals lineup, Cain is almost a must play if you want to target struggling RHP Andrew Cashner. Cain is hitting .385 with a 23.3% Line Drive Rate and he’s 4-for-4 on SB attempts against RHP so far this year to flash his dual threat upside. He’s 2-for-3 over a small sample against Cashner and should enjoy the hitter-friendly confines down in Texas along with the rest of the Royals bats.
Jayson Werth: (WAS) @ ATL DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,900
Here’s a great source of salary relief and a high-upside value at that, as Werth has some very impressive splits in his career against knuckler R.A. Dickey. He’s 13-for-27 with 2 HR and 5 walks off Dickey, who is playing with fire with a 1.80 WHIP and while allowing 16 hits over 2 starts so far this year. The Nationals can certainly tag him if they’re patient and Werth is one of the primary candidates to do that at a much cheaper price tag than superstar Bryce Harper ($5000/$4700).