Plays of the Day
Value: The Royals and Mike Moustakas face a RHP tonight in Nick Martinez, who is forced into a spot start after posting a 5.59 ERA with a 6.87 FIP and 1.86 HR/9 ratio over 12 appearances last season. Martinez allowed lefties to hit .310 with a .428 wOBA during that span and he could struggle against a powerful lefty in Moustakas.
Fade: Nolan Arenado has posted some gaudy numbers against LHP, especially at Coors Field, but Giants southpaw Matt Moore appears to have turned a corner this year and we all should be aware of how disappointing Rockies stacks have been at their home ballpark so far this season..
Team Target Stacks
Indians: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis
Red Sox: Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon
Marlins: Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto
Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer
Angels: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron
Chance of delays at the start in Philly tonight. Strong wings blowing out to RF in Texas.
Carlos Carrasco: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $10,900/FD: $10,300
A pitcher with as much ability as any arm in the Majors, Carrasco seems like he’s realizing that potential so far this year. He’s sporting a 2.33 ERA and impressive 0.93 WHIP but has had some weak run support, leading to a 1-1 record, yet tonight his Indians should be all over vulnerable RHP Mike Pelfrey. Current White Sox are sporting a collective 26.7% K-Rate over 131 career at-bats against Carrasco and the Northsiders have scored the second-fewest runs (49) in the Majors so far this season, so it’s hard to beat the matchup on that end either.
Robbie Ray: (ARI) @ LAD DK: $8,600/FD: $8,500
It’s a little concerning that Ray will face the Dodgers in a second consecutive start, but this seems to be a great matchup for him in any case. He posted a 2.96 ERA and .182 BAA with 52 K’s over 8 appearances (48.2 IP) against Big Blue last year and they still didn’t figure him out while managing just 1 earned run on 3 hits with 10 K’s in a meeting with Ray this past Monday. The Dodgers posted the lowest collective batting average (.213) in the Majors against LHP last year and they’re not exactly killing it with a .215 batting average and .287 wOBA against lefties so far this season.
Chase Anderson: (MIL) vs. STL DK: $5,700 / FD: $7,700
We often see starters figure things out in their fourth or fifth year in the Majors and Anderson appears to be pitching with his head as much as his arm right now. He’s allowed just 3 ER with a 1.00 WHIP and 16 K’s over 18 IP so far this season after showing marked improvement with a 3.02 ERA during the second half of 2016. Anderson’s biggest knock throughout his short career has been struggles in RvR matchups, but he’s held righties to a .146 batting average (6-for-46) thus far this season and draws a decent matchup tonight against an inconsistent Cardinals offense.
Steven Wright: (BOS) @ BAL DK: $6,200 / FD: $8,100
Wright is certainly a longshot on either main DFS site and he’s costly on FanDuel, but it’s worth hoping that he avoids a disastrous first inning this time out and posts a solid line. He gave up 8 runs to the Orioles in the first back on April 12, and nearly replicated that implosion on Patriots’ Day against the Rays, but finally found his knuckler and turned in 6 solid innings to beat Tampa. While the O’s represent a formidable matchup for any pitcher, they also posted a 21.7% K-Rate last year and are still batting just .216 (16-for-74) with 14 K’s in their careers against Wright despite last week’s offensive eruption.
Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. STL DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,400
He’s been such a reliable value play over the first couple weeks of the season that it’s probably time to consider Pina as a top per dollar option. With a .441 batting average, 1.075 OPS and an 8-game hitting streak, he’s certainly capable of producing against RHP Lance Lynn, who bounced back from a rough outing in his last start, but is still somewhat vulnerable. Lynn is allowing a 39.1% Line Drive Rate while facing RHB this season and that makes a Brewers stack worth a look.
Sandy Leon: (BOS) @ BAL DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,200
He was great in LvL matchups last year and is worth a look against O’s southpaw Jayson Aquino.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) @ SD DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,600
He could serve as part of a Marlins stack against Jered Weaver.
Hanley Ramirez: (BOS) @ BAL DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,100
Here’s the member of a potential Red Sox stack with the most upside, as Ramirez could tee off on Orioles SP Jayson Aquino. The 24-year-old southpaw is making his first MLB start after posting a modest 4.00 ERA with a 1.00 HR/9 ratio over 2 appearances at the AAA level this year and he’ll face a Boston team that finished 2016 with the highest batting average (.278) against lefties. Ramirez led the charge with a .346 average and .453 wOBA against LHP last season and he comes at a very modest price tag on FD tonight.
Kendrys Morales: (TOR) @ LAA DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,200
He’s doing a solid job as a fill in for Josh Donaldson in the 3-hole and faces a relatively weak LHP tonight in Tyler Skaggs.
Carlos Santana: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,000
Along with Edwin Encarnacion ($4400/$3600) he has tremendous upside as part of an Indians stack against Pelfrey.
Jason Kipnis: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,400
He got his feet wet in his first action of the season last night and now Kipnis could flash some of the upside that made him a premier dual threat last season. The Indians could be all over White Sox SP Mike Pelfrey, who put up a 1.85 WHIP with a 1.21 HR/9 ratio while allowing LHB to post a .394 wOBA last season. Pelfrey has given up 4 homers on a 25% HR/FB ratio over 6 IP in the Minors so far this season and that hardly bodes well for a pitcher who will take on the defending A.L. champs tonight.
Cesar Hernandez: (PHI) vs. ATL DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,500
More of a value on DK, but still a solid addition to a Phillies stack against LHP Jaime Garcia.
Jose Ramirez: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $3,900 / FD: $4,100 as 3B
Another Indians bat to consider as a platoon member against Pelfrey.
Mike Moustakas: (KC) @ TEX DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,200
It’s tempting to spring for top option Nolan Arenado against a LHP at Coors Field, but I’ll hope that Moose goes yard at the Launching Pad in Arlington, Texas with winds blowing out at around 20 MPH tonight. The Royals are worth stacking despite their offensive struggles, as they face a RHP in Nick Martinez who is forced into a spot start after posting a 5.59 ERA with a 6.87 FIP and 1.86 HR/9 ratio over 12 appearances last season. Martinez allowed lefties to hit .310 with a .428 wOBA during that span and he could struggle against a powerful lefty in Moustakas.
Lonnie Chisenhall: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,000
Yet another lefty with the platoon advantage against Pelfrey.
Maikel Franco: (PHI) vs. ATL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,000
He faces a LHP in Jaime Garcia who posted the highest HR/FB ratio in the Majors last season.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $4,100 / FD: $4,000
There’s not much to say here other than the fact that Lindor would serve as an integral part of what could be the top stack on tonight’s slate. We’ve covered Mike Pelfrey’s struggles against the platoon, while Lindor is hitting .342 with a .466 wOBA off RHP so far this season. He’s been relatively quiet over his last couple of games but has become one of the premier dual threats in the game and should pay off his price tag.
Troy Tulowitzki: (TOR) @ LAA DK: $3,600 / FD:$3,100
He’s been reliable recently and has the platoon advantage against LHP Tyler Skaggs.
Chris Owings: (ARI) @ LAD DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,700
He had another great game last night and could continue to produce against RHP Kenta Maeda.
Mike Trout: (LAA) vs. TOR DK: $5,200 / FD: $5,000
We’ve yet to recommend Trout at his lofty price tag so far this season, but it seems worth paying up for the perennial MVP candidate tonight. The Angels host a converted reliever in Casey Lawrence after the 29-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA at the AA level and 3.83 ERA at the AAA level last season. He’s been tagged for 3 ER while walking 5 over just 3 IP so far this year and should struggle against the best all-around player in the world, who happens to come into this matchup posting a .361/.452/.639 slash line with 3 HR and 3 SB over his last 10 appearances.
Giancarlo Stanton: (MIA) @ SD DK: $4,500 / FD: $4,100
If you want a player with tons of upside in for a GPP lineup, Stanton could homer at least once off the Padres starter tonight. Fading veteran Jered Weaver posted the lowest Ground Ball Rate (28.8%) in the Majors last season and is giving up an absurd 2.65 HR/9 ratio with a 29.4% HR/FB ratio so far this year. Stanton is more than capable of launching a bomb out of massive Petco Park and he’s certainly worth a look against a homer-prone starter.