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Scouting The MLB DFS - Sunday, April 23

Cash in on Sunday's full slate of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Mike Leake has been nothing short of stellar with a 0.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 3 starts and his sinker is working wonders, as he’s drawn 36 ground ball outs at a 57% GB Rate. Tonight he faces a Brewers team that leads the Majors with a 25.5% K-Rate for the second consecutive season, so he has a little more upside than usual given the matchup.

Fade: I’m respecting Matt Andriese’s ability to junkball the Astros lineup tonight and prevent any bigtime damage at home, making Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa worth fading.

Team Target Stacks

Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Miguel Montero

Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Sandy Leon

Tigers: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Tyler Collins

Indians: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Weather Report

No weather concerns this Sunday.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Danny Salazar: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $11,300/FD: $10,100

While he comes with plenty of risk, Salazar also has tremendous upside in this matchup. The White Sox have scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors so far this season and current White Sox are sporting an absurd 42.8% K-Rate with 36 strikeouts over 84 career at-bats against Salazar. The hard-throwing righty is off to a great start from a DFS perspective with 27 K’s over 3 outings, 11 of which came against the Northsiders, and he’s certainly capable of mowing them down again on the road this Sunday.

Ivan Nova: (PIT) vs. NYY DK: $8,000/FD: $7,300

After a rare blip in his sustained string of solid performances, Nova got right back to it with a Quality Start (8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K’s) while taking a hard luck loss in St. Louis this past Monday. Now he’ll return to PnC Park to face his former team in the Yankees and he’s really enjoyed the spacious confines of Pittsburgh’s stadium, where he posted a 2.45 ERA with a .238 BAA over 6 appearances last season. Pitchers can have a competitive advantage against former teammates if they know how to attack their weaknesses and Nova can also count on solid run support with rookie Jordan Montgomery going for the Bronx Bombers.

Potential Value

Mike Leake: (STL) @ MIL DK: $7,000 / FD: $7,900

Of course, they don’t hand out CY Young Awards for performances in April, but if the season ended today, Leake would be a top finisher for that honor. He’s been nothing short of stellar with a 0.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 3 starts and his sinker is working wonders, as he’s drawn 36 ground ball outs at a 57% GB Rate. Tonight he faces a Brewers team that leads the Majors with a 25.5% K-Rate for the second consecutive season, so he has a little more upside than usual given the matchup.

Longshot

John Lackey: (CHC) @ CIN DK: $9,800 / FD: $9,200

Paying up (to an extent) for Lackey isn’t really a huge risk considering he’ll almost certainly pitcher better than Bronson Arroyo at Great American Ballpark today. Working against him is his recent poor splits on the road and the fact that the Reds are hitting a collective .316 off him throughout their careers. Chicago (-167) is heavily favored on the road with a serious of batters capable of teeing off of Arroyo and Lackey may only have to post a Quality Start to pay off.

Batters

Catchers

Miguel Montero: (CHC) @ CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,600

Montero’s been very successful against a righty with a low arm angle and a tendency to struggle against the platoon in Bronson Arroyo. He’s 8-for-17 with 3 homers in his career against Arroyo, who appears completely showered at the age of 40, as he’s given up 14 runs and 5 HR over 3 appearances so far this season. The Cubs are a premier stacking option and Montero should draw the start behind the plate given his skill set.

Potential Value

Francisco Cervelli: (PIT) vs. NYY DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,200

Worth a look against LHP Jordan Montgomery but who knows which catchers will rest on a Sunday afternoon.

Longshot

Alex Avila: (DET) vs. MIN DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,600

Could serve as part of a Tigers stack against RHP Kyle Gibson.

First Basemen

Edwin Encarnacion: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,600

Like SP Danny Salazar, Encarnacion comes with a high ceiling and a low floor in tonight’s matchup. The Indians are worth stacking against southpaw Derek Holland, who pitched around 4 walks to limit the Indians over 6 IP in a meeting last week, but could struggle in a rematch. Encarnacion is 7-for-18 with 2 doubles and 3 homers in his career against Holland and posted a .275 ISO mark against lefties last year, so he could find his power stroke in this matchup.

Potential Value

Mitch Moreland: (BOS) @ BAL DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,600

Moreland carries plenty of upside in a LvR matchup against Kevin Gausman at Camden Yards.

Longshot

Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) @ CIN DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,200

His exorbitant price tag on DK makes Rizzo a bit of a risk on the off chance that he doesn’t jump in on a Cubs rally.

Second Basemen

Javier Baez: (CHC) @ CIN DK: $4,300 / FD: $2,400

The public should gravitate towards Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant today, leaving the door open for Baez to flash great upside at a modest price tag on FanDuel. Bronson Arroyo is sporting a 21.7% HR/FB ratio and a career low 36.5% Ground Ball Rate so far this season, while the ball could be flying out of modest Great American Ballpark on a good weather day.

Potential Value

Josh Harrison: (PIT) vs. NYY DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,900

A solid value against LH rookie Jordan Montgomery.

Longshot

: Yolmer Sanchez (CWS) vs. CLE DK: $2,400 / FD: $2,300

Cheap enough to punt with and happens to be 3-for-3 off Salazar in a tiny sample size.

Third Basemen

Chase Headley: (NYY) @ PIT DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,600

Headley’s been so consistent and so consistently cheap on DraftKings that he’s become worth mentioning even in the same article in which Ivan Nova is recommended. Nova does struggle against the platoon at times and Headley’s been smoking the ball with a .409 batting average, 35.3% Line Drive Rate and unsustainable 33.3% HR/FB ratio so far this season. He’s 1-for-3 in a small sample size against Nova and seems like a reliable cash game option this Sunday.

Potential Value

Scooter Gennett: (CIN) vs. CHC DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,500 as 2B

Matches up well against RHP John Lackey and dirt cheap on FD.

Longshot

Manny Machado: (BAL) vs. BOS DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,600

In old baseball terms, Machado is “Due” for a big day at the plate and could tag LHP Eduardo Rodriguez despite modest career splits.

Shortstops

Aledyms Diaz: (STL) @ MIL DK: $4,500 / FD: $2,900

This price tag on DK indicates that Diaz is a relatively bargain on FanDuel in a decent matchup against RHP Jimmy Nelson. The Brewers starter has been up and down throughout his short career and was way down while coughing up 7 ER against the Cubs in his last outing. He’s starting to warm up with 4 hits and a SB over his last 3 appearances and happens to be 2-for-6 in a small sample of at-bats against Nelson.

Potential Value

Tim Beckham: (TB) vs. HOU DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,400

Has shown a bit more power against lefties throughout his career and could hit Eduardo Rodriguez today.

Longshot

J.J. Hardy: (BAL) vs. BOS DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,600

Has shown a bit more power against lefties throughout his career and could hit Eduardo Rodriguez today.

Outfielders

Mookie Betts: (BOS) @ BAL DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,400

It’s certainly tough to afford Betts on either main DFS site, but it might be worth using him along with a couple of value plays in the OF and it’s certainly possible to save at SP with guys like Mike Leake available. Betts and the Sox face an inconsistent RHP in Kevin Gausman, who was just lit up for 8 ER over 2.2 IP in Cincinnati and has generally looked vulnerable with a 7.23 ERA and 2.04 WHIP over 4 appearances this year. Betts is 9-for-21 with 2 HR in his career against the young righty and he brings even more upside to the table due to his elite speed.

Kevin Kiermaier: (TB) @ HOU DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600

Young Astros RHP Joe Musgrove had a great rookie campaign but it appears that the MLB has a book on him now and it’s going to be tough for him to get outs consistently without a plus fastball. He’s given up 10 ER while walking 5 batters over three starts and failed to record a Quality Start in any of those outings and now he travels to Tropicana Field, where the Rays can surprise with the occasional offensive explosion. Look at Kiermaier as a good value on DK and a potential addition to that stack considering he’s been red hot with 11 hits, 3 walks and 2 SB over his last 6 appearances.

Potential Values

Odubel Herrera: (PHI) vs. ATL DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,500
Corey Dickerson: (TB) vs. HOU DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100
Abraham Almonte: (CLE) @ CWS DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,500

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