Plays of the Day
Value: Amir Garrett is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his first 3 MLB starts and he faces a Brewers team tonight that is sporting the highest K-Rate (25.5%) in the Majors for a second consecutive season. While Milwaukee’s lineup is full of dangerous RHB, the Brew Crew has an even higher K-Rate (30.2%) when facing lefties and Garrett is coming off a stellar 12-strikeout performance against the Orioles.
Fade: Chris Archer’s off to a great start this season, but deals with multiple concerns tonight including a significant chance of rain delays in Baltimore. The Orioles have done some damage against him in the past and he’s generally less effective on the road.
Team Target Stacks
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Trea Turner
Rays: Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Tim Beckham
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner
Chance of delays in Baltimore tonight. Strong winds blowing IN at Baltimore, Texas and in Pittsburgh.
Zack Greinke: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $9,400/FD: $10,000
I’m not ready to buy stock in Greinke as a season-long investment, but am willing to take a chance on him in a fantastic matchup against the Padres toothless offense. San Diego is sporting the fourth-lowest collective wOBA (.282) along with a weak .213 batting average and the eighth-highest K-Rate (23.6%) in the Majors so far this year and clearly doesn’t have much firepower, as the Pads have been a bottom 10 offense over the last five seasons. Greinke just held the Padres to 1 ER over 8 IP in his best outing of the season and he’s been pretty solid in a bounce back campaign with a 3.28 ERA and a 3.06 FIP over 4 starts. Even with a decline in velocity, Greinke is capable of holding San Diego’s lineup in check once again.
Jason Vargas: (KC) @ CWS DK: $8,000/FD: $8,500
Vargas came through with yet another excellent performance in blanking the Giants over 7 IP to outduel Madison Bumgarner for a win last Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER with a stellar 0.77 WHIP and is averaging an unsustainable 31 DK PPG (52.7 FD PPG) over 3 appearances so far this season, yet he’s worth using in at least one more plus matchup. The White Sox are dead last in collective wOBA (.263) while scoring the second-fewest runs in the Majors this year and posted an above average 22% K-Rate when facing lefties last year. He’s sporting a career-high 53% Ground Ball Rate and is holding opposing batters to a modest 26.5% Hard Contact Rate, which is a model for success.
Amir Garrett: (CIN) @ MIL DK: $6,700 / FD: $7,700
As the sample size of his work continues to grow, Garrett is becoming more and more trustworthy, yet his price tag remains quite low on DraftKings. The rookie LHP is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his first 3 MLB starts and he faces a Brewers team tonight that is sporting the highest K-Rate (25.5%) in the Majors for a second consecutive season. While Milwaukee’s lineup is full of dangerous RHB, the Brew Crew has an even higher K-Rate (30.2%) when facing lefties and Garrett is coming off a stellar 12-strikeout performance against the Orioles.
Francisco Liriano: (TOR) @ LAA DK: $9,700 / FD: $8,400
It would be just like Liriano to tease the public with a couple of surprising performances and then collapse in a good matchup, but you can gamble on his success continuing tonight against an Angels team that is sporting the fifth-lowest collective wOBA (.293) amongst A.L. teams along with the fourth-lowest collective batting average (.226) against LHP so far this year. Liriano will pitch at massive Angels Stadium, which as a very low HR factor, and face an Angels lineup that’s a combined 23-for-110 (.209) with 28 K’s in their careers against him.
Buster Posey: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,700
For the life of me I can’t figure out why Hyun-Jin Ryu is the most expensive SP on DK tonight and I’m more than willing to target him with a few RH Giants bats. Posey is always a candidate to do damage against the platoon with a career .327 batting average and .400 wOBA when facing LHP and he’s shown some power with 3 doubles and a HR over 22 career at-bats against Ryu. The Dodgers southpaw is sporting an absurd 54.5% HR/FB ratio with a 6.94 FIP while dropping all three of his starts to begin the season and his hard luck might continue at AT&T Park this evening.
Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. CIN DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400
Pina slugged his first homer of the year to maintain a 9-game hitting streak and a .432 batting average on the season.
Yasmani Grandal: (LAD) @ SF DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,800
A dangerous lefty to consider in a stack against RHP Matt Cain.
Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) @ COL DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,900
He’s one of the few Nationals bats that are affordable tonight at Coors Field and Zimmerman stands to benefit most in a RvL matchup against young Tyler Anderson. The Rockies southpaw is off to a rough start with a 1-3 record and 7.32 ERA and he coughed up a 1.25 HR/9 ratio with a 1.30 WHIP against RHB last season. Zimmerman is a career .305 hitters against LHP, is 3-for-6 with two doubles and a homer off lefties so far this year and he’s been raking in general with a 25% Line Drive Rate and 29.4% HR/FB ratio this season.
Logan Morrison: (TB) @ BAL DK: $4,000 / FD: $2,400
He’ll have the platoon advantage against weak RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
Joey Votto: (CIN) @ MIL DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,200
He’s seen a ton of RHP Matt Garza over the years and could tag him tonight.
DJ LeMahieu: (COL) vs. WAS DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,700
The Rockies catch a break tonight with vulnerable RHP Jacob Turner starting instead of the injured Joe Ross and that gives them a decent chance to snap their puzzling slump at Coors Field. LeMahieu has flashed some power with 3 XBH and a HR over 9 home games this season and he hit .400 against RHP at home last year. Turner actually struggled more against righties with a 3.29 HR/9 ratio and 2.27 WHIP last year and he’s allowed RHB to post a .371 wOBA throughout his career. He’s been relegated to the minors with Washington after posting a 6.57 ERA and 26.3% HR/FB ratio with the White Sox last season and is clearly worth targeting.
Scooter Gennett: (CIN) vs. MIL DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,600
Gennett has been solid in matchups against mediocre RHP and he should be productive against Matt Garza.
: Chase Utley (LAD) @ SF DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,100
He could start tonight with Logan Forsythe on the DL and Utley has great career splits (11-for-29, 4 HR) against Matt Cain.
Jake Lamb: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,900
It’s tempting to pay all the way up for Nolan Arenado given some of the numbers we just laid out for Nats RHP Jacob Turner, but Lamb offers a bit off a higher floor with a reasonable ceiling in his own right. The D’Backs usual cleanup hitter against RHP is hitting .360 with a .455 wOBA and .320 ISO mark when facing righties and he’s 5-for-13 with a double, HR and 4 RBI over his last 3 games to maintain an 8-game hitting streak. Tonight he’ll face a RHP in Jhoulys Chacin, who has allowed lefties to go 7-for-21 on the road after giving up a .383 wOBA to LHB away from massive Petco Park last season and could struggle while trying to limit the D’Backs lineup in a second consecutive outing.
Justin Turner: (LAD) @ SF DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,700
He’s more dangerous in RvR matchups and draws a great one tonight against washed up veteran Matt Cain.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ COL DK: $5,200 / FD: $3,700
A very expensive addition to a Nats stack, but Rendon could thrive against LHP Tyler Anderson.
Corey Seager: (LAD) @ SF DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300
He’s been solid over his last two appearances, but it’s tough to trust Matt Cain going forward after he posted a 5.61 ERA during a disastrous 2016 campaign. He was solid against the D’Backs and Royals, but is allowing lefties to post a .411 wOBA with a 28.6% Line Drive Rate so far this year, which makes Seager a high-upside option as the most dangerous LHB in the Dodgers lineup. His price tag is still quite reasonable on FD despite the fact that he’s now hitting .329 with a .932 OPS on the season and is coming off two big games over the course of a three-game series in Arizona.
Tim Beckham: (TB) @ BAL DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,600
Beckahm is hitting .326 over his last 10 appearances and could serve as a value addition to a Rays stack against Jimenez.
Chris Owings: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,900
Returns to hitter-friendly Chase Field tonight for a plus matchup against Chacin.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) @ COL DK: $6,100 / FD: $5,500
He comes at an exorbitant price tag tonight, but Harper is one of several Nationals who could produce in their first game at Coors Field this week. Washington leads the Majors with a collective .404 batting average and .482 wOBA against LHP and Harper is terrorizing pitchers of both handedness with 7 hits over 10 at-bats in LvL matchups. If Rockies southpaw Tyler Anderson struggles, Harper will be more than capable of doing damage against Colorado’s weak middle relief since he’s reverted back to his MVP form and is en fuego with a .405/.511/.919 slash line over his last 10 appearances.
Lorenzo Cain: (KC) @ TEX DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,800
The rest of the Royals lineup continues to struggle as Cain continues to rake with a .395/.452/.500 slash line over his last 10 appearances. He’s not swinging for the fences this year, which has led to a higher average and more opportunities for him to swipe 6 bases in 6 attempts. Tonight KC faces a RHP in Miguel Gonzalez, who offers very little in terms of deception and has allowed opposing base runners to go 25-for-30 on SB attempts over the last four seasons.