Plays of the Day
Value: Manny Pina remains quite cheap ahead of a pretty good matchup against Reds RHP Scott Feldman, who is capable of limiting opposing hitters when they’re overly aggressive, but only last 5 innings while giving up 2 ER and walking 5 in a meeting with the Brew Crew two weeks ago. Pina happened to go 2-for-2 off Feldman in that contest and he’s currently batting .439 with a 1.124 OPS over 41 at-bats this season, so it’s hard to ignore him when looking for salary relief.
Fade: Mother Nature will serve as your queue for fades tonight, as pitchers in New York, Boston and even Philadelphia may be too risky to use at all with heavy rains expected in the area.
Team Target Stacks
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmdit, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas
Twins: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon
Dodgers: Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner
Chance of delays in Baltimore, Philadelphia and Colorado tonight. Strong chance of postponements in New York (Mets) and Boston.
Clayton Kershaw: (LAD) @ SF DK: $14,300/FD: $12,700
As expensive as Kershaw may be on DK, he’s almost a must play at a more reasonable price tag on FanDuel, where he comes with a far higher floor-ceiling combination than any single starter. Kershaw’s been his usual dominant self with 18 K’s and just 2 walks while allowing 3 ER over his last two outings (15.1 IP) and he travels to massive AT&T Park, which has one of the lowest Run Factors of any ballpark in the Majors. Current Giants are batting just .158 (51-for-322) with 91 K’s over a huge sample size against the elite southpaw and should get some run support with young LHP Ty Blach going for the Giants.
Danny Duffy: (KC) @ CWS DK: $10,400/FD: $9,700
Chicago should stay out of the rain that will bombard the east coast over the next couple of days and the forecast at U.S. Cellular Field happens to call for strong winds blowing IN from RF tonight. That could help Duffy keep the ball in the yard on fly balls, although he’s hardly allowing any Hard Contact with a 14.1% Line Drive Rate and 6.7% HR/FB ratio so far this season. The Royals LHP is sporting a 1.32 ERA and hasn’t received much run support from his struggling offense, but even KC could come alive against a rookie RHP in Dylan Covey who just gave up 8 ER on 10 hits in his last outing.
Michael Wacha: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $6,800 / FD: $7,700
Wacha seems to have rediscovered his mojo with a 2.41 ERA and 8.23 K/9 ratio through 3 starts this season and he’ll pitch at home tonight against a Blue Jays offense that’s been a shell of its former self this season. Toronto is sporting the third-lowest collective wOBA (.281) with a weak .223 batting average while scoring the fourth-fewest runs in the Majors so far this season as that lineup is struggling to cope with Edwin Encarnacion traded and Josh Donaldson (calf) dinged up. Despite scuffling at home last season, Wacha has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his career at Busch Stadium and he seems like a reliable option tonight.
Wade Miley: (BAL) vs. TB DK: $9,700 / FD: $8,400
Miley is one of several pitchers going tonight who would be appealing if not for the concerns of rain delays and potential postponements. Baltimore is not expected to get as much rain as the northeast, but he could see delays midway through this game. Still, Miley is a durable pitcher who might be able to sit close to an hour and still come out to finish a Quality Start and he’s been quality in consecutive outings while posting a 1.90 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 3 appearances this season. He’ll face a Rays team that posted the highest K-Rate (25.4%) against LHP in the Majors last year and current Rays are just 20-for-90 (.222) with 22 K’s in their careers against Miley.
Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. CIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,600
He’s been one of the most reliable values all year and remains quite cheap ahead of a pretty good matchup at home tonight. Reds RHP Scott Feldman is capable of limiting opposing hitters when they’re overly aggressive, but he only last 5 innings while giving up 2 ER and walking 5 in a meeting with the Brew Crew two weeks ago. Pina happened to go 2-for-2 off Feldman in that contest and he’s currently batting .439 with a 1.124 OPS over 41 at-bats this season, so it’s hard to ignore him when looking for salary relief.
Yadier Molina: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
Molina is 13-for-24 with 2 doubles and a HR in his career against Blue Jays RHP Marco Estrada.
Stephen Vogt: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,700
Could serve as part of a stack against RHP J.C. Ramirez.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,500
Padres lefty Clayton Richard was able to avoid any serious damage in his last outing against the D’Backs, but still gave up 9 hits and was relatively lucky to only give up one run. Amongst others, Goldy doubled off Richard in that contest and he’s now 6-for-19 with 3 doubles and 4 SB in his career against the southpaw. He should be well rested after sitting out on Monday night and is the heart of a D’Backs lineup that posted the second-highest collective batting average (.276) and highest wOBA (.348) against LHP last season.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $3,100 / FD: $3,600
Healy was really heating up prior to Oakland’s off day and he’s a fantastic value on DK as the best target to use against J.C. Ramirez.
Eric Thames: (MIL) vs. CIN DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,100
Feldman better be very careful with the Majors leader in home runs.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) @ TEX DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,500
This should be the game to target for offense outside of the high-priced bats at Coors Field, and Dozier clearly has the most upside of any batter in the Twins lineup. He’s heating up with 4 hits and 2 walks over his last 3 appearances and faces weak RHP Andrew Cashner at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. Cashner managed to limit the Royals last-place offense in his last outing but has allowed RHB to go 6-for-22 with 4 XBH (.443 wOBA) so far this season after posting a 5.25 ERA with a 14.5% HR/FB ratio with two teams last year. Dozier has launched 3 homers over his last 40 at-bats down in Arlington and could hit a bomb tonight.
Yolmer Sanchez: (CWS) vs. KC DK: $2,300 / FD: $2,300
The switch hitter could crack the White Sox lineup against LHP Danny Duffy.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,300
A very cheap addition to a potential A’s stack against converted reliever J.C. Ramirez.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) vs. PIT DK: $4,800 / FD: $4,000
The Cubs face a talented RHP tonight in Gerrit Cole, who is down on his luck and sporting a 4.70 ERA with a troubling 1.96 HR/9 ratio over 4 starts this year. Cole can certainly throw hard, but his fastball is rating -5.1 runs below average while his curveball is at -5.86 according to Brooks Baseball’s Data so far this season, because he’s been unable to keep the opposition off balance. Bryant doubled off him in a meeting a couple of weeks ago and posted a rating of 37 runs above average against fastballs during his MVP 2016 season, while he’s 9-for-26 with 4 walks to heat up over his last 5 appearances.
Travis Shaw: (MIL) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600
He’s been very solid against most mediocre RHP and is worth a look against Scott Feldman.
Mike Moustakas: (KC) @ CWS DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,500
The Royals may be struggling, but so is rookie RHP Dylan Covey.
Chris Owings: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,800
Last night’s longshot came through with a massive night including a grand slam to carry the D’Backs offense on Monday and he could serve as part of a high-upside stack this evening. Richard is sporting a great 67.1% Ground Ball Rate, but when gives up hard contact, it goes with a 30.8% HR/FB ratio so far this season. Owings hit .306 with a .348 wOBA against LHP last year and like the rest of the Diamondbacks, he’ll have the advantage of facing Richard twice within a 6-day span.
Kike Hernandez: (LAD) @ SF DK: $3,100 / FD: $3,200 as OF
Could crack the Dodgers lineup with the platoon advantage against LHP Ty Blach.
Corey Seager: (LAD) @ SF DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,500
Will be lightly owned in a LvL matchup but Seager may face the Giants relievers more often than young LHP Ty Blach.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) @ DET DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,100
As the weather warms, so does Cruz, who appears somewhat ageless at the start of his 12th MLB campaign. He’s slashing .375/.512/.781 with 4 doubles and 3 HR over his last 10 appearances and has been driving in runs like crazy with guys like Mitch Haniger and Robinson Cano reaching in front of him. Tonight the Mariners are worh stacking against RHP Jordan Zimmerman, whose performance fell off a cliff last year and that decline has continued into 2017 as he’s posting a 5.94 ERA with a 43.6% Hard Contact Rate through 3 starts.
A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,900
Pollock’s no longer dramatically under priced on both main DFS sites, but he’s still a relative bargain given his floor-ceiling combination. The elite RHB is hitting .308 with a 21.5% Line Drive Rate and 3 SB so far this season and he draws a good matchup against Clayton Richard. Pollock is 3-for-12 in his career against Richard, with a HR and 2 doubles, one of which he hit in Richard’s start against the D’Backs just last week. He hit .326 with a .379 wOBA in his last full season against lefties and should serve as a great addition to an Arizona stack.