Plays of the Day
Value: Yankees RHP Luis Severino posted a 5.83 ERA over 22 appearances last year and is sporting a similar 4.05 ERA with a troublesome 26.7% HR/FB ratio over 3 starts so far this season. The Red Sox are worth stacking tonight and Andrew Benintendi, who is sporting a 32% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon and hitting .378 at home this season, is seriously under priced on DraftKings.
Fade: Cole Hamels is coming off a solid outing, but that was really his first of the year and tonight he faces a Twins team that loves to hit against lefties, especially Minnesota’s top bat in Brian Dozier.
Team Target Stacks
Mariners: Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Leonys Martin
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Miguel Montero, Ben Zobrist
Orioles: J.J. Hardy, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Welington Castillo
Chance of a postponement in St. Louis due to storms in the area. Heavy winds blowing OUT to CF in Texas.
Noah Syndergaard: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $12,600/FD: $11,500
There are a couple of other aces slated to go tonight, but none have the same upside as Syndergaard. He managed to produce 25 DK points (46 FD points) in his last outing despite coughing up 3 ER and dealing with some bad defense to take a loss against Philly because of course, he also struck out 10 batters over 10 innings of work. He’s turned in 4 Quality Starts with a total of 30 K’s and amazingly hasn’t walked a single batter this season, while he faces a weak Braves lineup tonight that he blanked over 6 IP in the season opener earlier this month and current Braves are sporting a 27.2% K-Rate in their careers against him.
Dylan Bundy: (BAL) vs. TB DK: $7,800/FD: $8,100
Bundy is virtually coming out of nowhere to make a name for himself, as he’s suddenly pitching like an ace for the Orioles. He’s 3-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 4 appearances in much tougher spots considering he’s faced the Red Sox and Blue Jays twice in home and away situations. Now he’ll face the lowly Rays offense at home and could post solid strikeout numbers against a team that had the third-highest K-Rate (24.5%) in the Majors last year. The matching 1.85 FIP and incredible 16.2% Hard Contact Rate proves that Bundy’s early success is not a fluke and he’s therefore an excellent mid-tier option right now.
Wei-Yin Chen: (MIA) @ PHI DK: $7,100 / FD: $8,400
Chen received an extra day of rest thanks to last night’s rain out and he should be prepared to limit a Phillies team that posted the lowest collective wOBA (.296) in the Majors last year. Philadelphia is sporting the sixth-highest K-Rate (24.1%) while ranking 22nd in OBP (.294) against LHP so far this season. Chen can certainly keep runners off base, as proven by his 7-inning no-hitter against Seattle (in which he was pulled due a pitch count) and he’s worth a look with a new-look arsenal despite his relative struggles against the Phillies in the past
Rick Porcello: (BOS) vs. NYY DK: $9,300 / FD: $9,300
One thing is certain, Porcello should have relatively low ownership tonight considering his struggles this season and the weather concerns in Boston. Yet the rain is supposed to slow down by Wednesday evening and Porcello seemed to rediscover some of his CY Young mojo in his last outing at Toronto. He gave up 3 unearned runs but elicited 14 ground balls and kept the ball down, which is a recipe for success that should carry him against an aging Yankees lineup. Porcello was 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and .222 BAA against the Bronx Bombers last season and only the fading Jacoby Ellsbury has great career splits against him.
Buster Posey: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,600
On Monday, we pointed out Posey’s career .327 batting average and .400 wOBA when facing LHP and he immediately came through with what would’ve been an RBI single against southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu (if not for Yasiel Puig’s cannon). Tonight he faces another lefty in Alex Wood, against whom he’s 4-for-7 with 2 doubles in a sample size. While he’s been stellar at home in spot action, Wood struggled with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road last year and Posey hit .347 at AT&T Park against lefties last season and he’s quite cheap on DK.
Miguel Montero: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $2,800 / FD: $2,900
Will be worth a look as part of a potential Cubs stack if he starts with the platoon advantage against RHP Tyler Glasnow.
Cameron Rupp: (PHI) vs. MIA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,400
Platoon specialist who matches up well against LHP Wei-Yin Chen.
Chris Davis: (BAL) vs. TB DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,300
The O’s really tend to slug at Camden Yards, as they hit most homers (131) in their home ballpark of any MLB team last season. Tonight they’ll host a RHP in Alex Cobb, who has given up 4 ER in 3 consecutive outings and is posting a HR/FB ratio over 20% for the second straight year, as he’s never fully recovered from elbow surgery it might appear. Cobb has already given up 4 HR while allowing lefties to post a .467 wOBA over 41 at-bats this year and Davis launched 14 bombs at home against RHP last season. Ignore his poor career splits against Cobb, because the Rays SP simply hasn’t been the same.
Danny Valencia: (SEA) @ DET DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400
Should crack the Mariners lineup against LHP Daniel Norris and he’s killed lefties in the past.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) vs. NYY DK: $3,000 / FD: $3,600
He could tag RHP Luis Severino at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) @ PHI DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300
Gordon is reaching base with consistency and he’s always a threat to take off for stolen bases. Tonight he should be able to swipe a bag off a mediocre defensive catcher in Cameron Rupp and a sophomore RHP in Vince Velasquez, who is really struggling with a 7.20 ERA and 6.07 FIP while walking 6 batters per 9 innings through 3 starts this season. Lefties are 11-for-44 (.306) off Velasquez this year and he posted a 1.43 WHIP with a 2.85 K/BB ratio against the platoon last year. Gordon has reached base in 16 of 18 appearances since the opener and continues to knock off the rust.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,300
More of a low-upside salary relief play tonight against solid RHP Matt Shoemaker.
Robinson Cano: (SEA) @ DET DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,800
Worth adding to a potential Mariners stack despite the LvL matchup against Daniel Norris.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,200
Bryant stayed hot from a DFS perspective last night and is now 10-for-30 with 5 walks and a SB to heat up over his last 6 appearances. He possesses as much upside as anyone tonight as the heart of a potential Cubs stack against strikeout-dependent RHP Tyler Glasnow, who is sporting a 7.94 ERA while giving up a 26.8% Line Drive Rate over 3 starts this year. Glasnow can certainly throw hard, but again, Bryant posted a rating of 37 runs above average when facing fastballs last season and he can hurt Glasnow with his power to all fields
Martin Prado: (MIA) @ PHI DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,800
He shouldn’t have much trouble timing up Velasquez’s elite fastball and simply going the other way with it.
Eduardo Nunez: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,800
He’s been very aggressive on the base paths this year and has some upside with the platoon advantage against LHP Alex Wood.
Jean Segura: (SEA) @DET DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400
Segura didn’t miss a beat while returning from a hamstring injury last night with 3 hits, including a HR, to raise his average to .342 and his DK PPG average to 11.1 on the year. He makes for a great pairing tonight with fellow lefty-killer Nelson Cruz, as Segura is more than capable of tagging a vulnerable southpaw in Daniel Norris. His price tag is still very reasonable as he makes his way back but he still has an elite floor-ceiling combo as the head of an excellent Seattle lineup.
Elvis Andrus: (TEX) vs. MIN DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
Worth a look with the platoon advantage against LHP Hector Santiago.
Trea Turner: (WAS) @ COL DK: $5,400 / FD: $4,500
Turner flashed ridiculous upside for the first time all year last night and he could certainly have another big night at Coors Field.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) @ DET DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,100
He came through with a 3-hit night on Tuesday and there’s no reason to fade Cruz in an even better matchup tonight. The lefty-killer will bat in the middle of a dangerous Mariners lineup against young southpaw Daniel Norris, who posted a low 38.3% GB Rate while giving up 1.30 HR/9 ratio over 14 appearances last year. Cruz posted a ridiculous .351 ISO mark against LHP last year and is sporting a .458 wOBA against the platoon so far this season, while he happens to be 3-for-4 with a triple and HR over a small sample against tonight’s starter.
Andrew Benintendi: (BOS) vs. NYY DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,800
Even on what should be a damp, foggy night at Fenway Park, the Red Sox lineup is capable of lighting it up against a somewhat vulnerable SP. Yankees RHP Luis Severino posted a 5.83 ERA over 22 appearances last year and is sporting a similar 4.05 ERA with a troublesome 26.7% HR/FB ratio over 3 starts so far this season. He’s given up a 24.9% Line Drive Rate against LHB through is career, so look at Benintendi, who is sporting a 32% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon and hitting .378 at home this season while generally crushing it in the middle of a very dangerous lineup.