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Scouting The MLB DFS - Thursday, April 27

Cash in on both slates of MLB action this Thursday with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Simply no reason to fade Buster Posey in yet another matchup against a mediocre LHP. He’s logged 2 hits in three consecutive games and is batting .417 over his last 10 appearances and could tag sophomore southpaw Julio Urias, who is making his season debut after posting a 1.52 WHIP while giving up a 27.9% Line Drive Rate to opposing RHB last season.

Fade: Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are both on fire right now as their series winds down at Coors Field, but I might fade Harper at his absurd price tag against a somewhat capable SP in Antonio Senzatela.

Team Target Stacks

Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Yadier Molina, Jedd Gyorko

Indians: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Weather Report

Chance of delays in Detroit and Colorado this afternoon, as well as in Cleveland this evening.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Chris Sale: (BOS) vs. NYY DK: $12,900/FD: $11,300

It hardly makes sense to play the Late or All Day slate tonight without using Sale. He’s been much better than advertised with a 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, .147 BAA and ridiculous 1.15 FIP through 4 starts and of course, has been unsustainably unlucky in terms of run support to post a 1-1 record. He matches up with another ace tonight in Masahiro Tanaka, but he’s been pretty vulnerable lately and Sale should dominate the Yankees lefty-heavy lineup regardless. Current Yanks are a combined 16-for-78 (.205) with 32 K’s in their careers against him and he appears to be on a mission to prove himself in Beantown.

Carlos Martinez: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $8,900/FD: $9,100 (Early)

Weather is still a concern in St. Louis tonight, but Martinez should get a full game in and he’s well rested ahead of what is suddenly a plus matchup against a struggling Blue Jays lineup. Toronto is sporting the second-lowest wOBA (.282) while scoring the fourth-fewest runs in the Majors so far this season and Josh Donaldson (calf) is still on the shelf. Martinez has hit a couple of speed bumps, but also flashed his potential with a dynamic outing against the Cubs in the season opener and is certainly capable of outpitching washed up veteran Mat Latos at home this evening.

Potential Value

Gio Gonzalez: (WAS) @ COL DK: $6,500 / FD: $6,300 (Early)

He’s been so good through 4 starts this season that I’d be willing to consider Gio as a value play at Coors Field tonight. The Rockies send a much more vulnerable pitcher to the mound in Antonio Senzatela, while Coors is slightly more conducive to success for lefties than RHP. Gonzalez is sporting a 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his last outing, while current Rockies are just 7-for-42 (.167) with 16 K’s in their collective careers against him.

Longshot

Corey Kluber: (CLE) vs. HOU DK: $10,000 / FD: $11,400 (All Day)

The Indians ace finally got on track with an excellent performance to reassert his status as an elite DFS option, as he struck out 9 and allowed just 3 hits in a CGSO effort against the White Sox. Now he’ll pitch at home against an Astros lineup that’s been very strikeout prone over the past several seasons and is sporting a collective .206 batting average (20-for-97) with 27 K’s in their careers against Kluber. He’s been giving up a lot of Hard Contact (44.6%) through 4 starts but simply needs to locate and change speeds to be successful as he has over the past few seasons and he’s a great option for the new-look Mix Up slate on FanDuel if the weather looks decent in Cleveland.

Batters

Catchers

Buster Posey: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,700 (Early)

Simply no reason to fade Posey in yet another matchup against a mediocre LHP. He’s logged 2 hits in three consecutive games and is batting .417 over his last 10 appearances, while the rest of the Giants lineup has come up short, leading to just 2 RBI for Posey during that span. Yet tonight they could tag sophomore southpaw Julio Urias, who is making his season debut after posting a 1.52 WHIP while giving up a 27.9% Line Drive Rate to opposing RHB last season and once again, Posey is a career .327 hitter with a .400 wOBA against the platoon.

Potential Value

Yadier Molina: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,900

Very consistent hitter with good splits against veteran Mat Latos.

Longshot

Matt Wieters: (WAS) @ COL DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300

Worth a look in GPP formats against RHP Antonio Senzatela at Coors.

First Basemen

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,300

The two most obvious options to pay up for on tonight’s slate are Sale and Goldschmidt, who comes into this plus matchup en fuego. He’s 7-for-8 with 2 doubles, a HR, a walk and a SB over his last 2 appearances and now he faces washed-up RHP Jered Weaver at home. Goldy happens to be 3-for-4 with a homer in his career against Weaver, who is sporting a 25.9% HR/FB ratio so far this year after posting the lowest GB Rate (28.8%) in the Majors last season.

Potential Value

Matt Carpenter: (TOR) vs. STL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,300

Reasonably priced as the most dangerous Cards LHB to use against Latos.

Longshot

Carlos Santana: (CLE) vs. HOU DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,900

The Indians could serve as a premier stack in All Day contests with their 6:10pm start against RHP Mike Fiers.

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler: (DET) @ SEA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,700 (Early)

He’s surprisingly cheap on DK given the circumstances and perhaps it has to do with the Tigers offense becoming more vulnerable due to the absence of Miguel Cabrera. Yet Kinsler is capable of stepping up to carry the load and he faces a finesse pitcher in Hisashi Iwakuma, who depends on deception to get undisciplined hitters out. That hasn’t really worked against Kinsler, as he’s 13-for-34 with 3 HR and a SB in his career against Iwakuma, while the Mariners starter is struggling at the age of 36 with a 5.31 ERA and 7.51 FIP through 3 starts this season.

Potential Value

Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,300

Still nearly the minimum on FD and batting .360 over his last 6 appearances heading into a plus matchup against RHP Ricky Nolasco.

Longshot

Jose Ramirez: (CLE) vs. HOU DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,900 as 3B

Great addition to an Indians stack if available on that slate.

Third Basemen

Maikel Franco: (PHI) vs. MIA DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000 (Early)

Not usually an offense you think about stacking, but the Phillies are capable of coming through on occasions. Tonight they’ll face a veteran RHP in Edinson Volquez who has been up and down throughout his career and has given up 10 ER on 17 hits while walking 9 over his last 3 appearances. Current Phillies are 11-for-29 (.379) over a small sample against Volquez, who struggled with a 5.37 ERA last season. Franco may be a popular play after launching a Grand Slam in a huge outing last night, but he’s still a good play at a very reasonable price tag in this plus matchup.

Potential Value

Jedd Gyorko: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100

He’s been hot lately and could serve as a solid addition to a Cardinals stack.

Longshot

Jake Lamb: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,800

The dangerous lefty could certainly tee off on RHP Jered Weaver.

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100 (Early)

Some hitters just profile well against knuckleballers and Cabrera is certainly one of them. He’s 6-for-18 with 2 XBH and 2 HR in his career against R.A. Dickey and is much more dangerous as a switch hitter when he’s batting from the left side of the plate, as he’s sporting a .275 batting average and 28.6% Hard Contact Rate against RHP so far this season. Dickey is generally more vulnerable before the weather warms up and it’s going to be cold and damp in New York after a lengthy rainstorm, so that knuckler might hang up a bit too often.

Potential Value

Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. TOR DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,000

Another relatively cheap Cardinals bat worth a look today against Latos.

Longshot

Trea Turner: (WAS) @ COL DK: $5,600 / FD: $4,800

Continues to crush it at Coors Field and Turner is usually worth paying up for with his dual threat upside.

Outfielders

A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $4,800 / FD: $4,100

You can’t really get enough exposure to the D’Backs best hitters tonight with Jered Weaver coming to town. The Padres veteran is certainly at the tail end of his career and he’s been dancing on eggshells with a 3.91 ERA despite his 6.42 FIP and 2.74 HR/9 ratio over 4 starts. Pollock could burn the RHP with either power or speed and he’s likely to set the table for hot-hitting cleanup men in Goldschmidt or Jake Lamb. Pollock is hitting .432 with 5 doubles, a HR and an impressive 6 SB over his last 10 appearances to flash his tremendous upside as a dual threat.

Andrew Benintendi: (BOS) vs. NYY DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,800

While he only reached via a walk last night (and scored a run) during Luis Severino’s surprising lights out performance, Benintendi is still under priced on DK and capable of coming through with the platoon advantage once again. Yankees so-called ace Masahiro Tanaka allowed a 1.02 HR/9 ratio and 32.7% Hard Contact Rate when facing LHB last year and lefties are 13-for-45 with 2 HR off him so far this year. Benintendi is still crushing it against the platoon and he seems like a perfect fit at Fenway Park with that short, powerful swing.

Potential Values

Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) vs. ATL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,900
David Peralta: (ARI) vs. SD DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
Hunter Pence: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,300

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