Plays of the Day
Value: Josh Harrison is worth a look with the platoon advantage tonight against LHP Adam Conley, who posted a 4.84 xFIP with a 1.40 WHIP last year and gave up a .357 wOBA while struggling during the second half. Harrison is a career .296 hitter and is 10-for-29 with 2 HR off lefties so far this year, so he should be able to pay off this modest price tag.
Fade: Jacob deGrom is facing a Nationals lineup with the best collective wOBA in the Majors and he seems to have lost a step over the last season-plus, while Washington also throws RHP Max Scherzer and that means very little run support for deGrom.
Team Target Stacks
Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge
Tigers: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos
Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas
Indians: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
Chance of delays in St. Louis tonight.
Max Scherzer: (WAS) vs. NYM DK: $12,700/FD: $11,600
Scherzer is not only pitching without issues after dealing with a stress fracture in his knuckle during the preseason, he appears to be better than ever with a 1.95 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .160 BAA and 33 K’s through 3 starts this season. He’s the obvious top option this Friday in a home tilt against a Mets team that is sporting the second-lowest collective batting average (.208) and fourth-lowest wOBA (.287) in the Majors so far this year. Current Mets are 48-for-207 (.232) with 68 K’s for a 32.9% K-Rate in their careers against Scherzer, who is in a groove rate now and capable of dominating.
Chase Anderson (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $7,100/FD: $8,600
He’s a certifiable value on DK and a true stud on either main DFS site based on the way he’s pitching right now. Anderson is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 3 starts this year and really deserved another win while allowing just an unearned run over six innings against the Cardinals his last time out. The 29-year-old RHP has been sporting better reverse-platoon splits throughout his career and Atlanta’s best hitters are almost entirely lefties.
Ian Kennedy: (KC) vs. MIN DK: $8,000 / FD: $8,100
I can’t really fathom Kennedy’s low price tag tonight. Perhaps it’s simply due to a lack of confidence in the Royals last-place offense, but KC is certainly capable of rallying against struggling RHP Kyle Gibson. Kennedy has been close to a rock with Quality Starts in 6 of his last 8 outings dating back to last season and he’s off to a great start with a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 4 starts this season. Minnesota got to him for three runs in his first outing, but current Twins are a modest 25-for-107 (.234) with 29 K’s in their careers against Kennedy and he did spin an eight-inning shutout against Minny last August.
Jeff Samardzija: (SF) vs. SD DK: $9,000 / FD: $8,700
The Shark should be a pretty good GPP option tonight because of his inconsistent performance thus far in 2016, yet the Padres can serve as a get-right matchup as they do so often. He went 4-1 with a 9.63 K/9 ratio and .218 BAA over 6 meetings with San Diego last season and is capable of firing fastballs past that overmatched lineup all day. The Padres are sporting the third-highest K-Rate (25.1%) in the Majors so far this season and don’t stand to put up many runs at Massive AT&T Park tonight.
Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,900
Apparently Pina is locked in as a value play right now and there’s no reason to fade him with ancient RHP Bartolo Colon visiting Miller Life Park. The breakout backstop is batting .419 with a 1.023 OPS on the year and sporting an absurd 35.9% Line Drive Rate. Colon doesn’t offer much deception at this point in his career and Pina would likely have to get very unlucky for one of those line drives to not fall for a base hit.
Willson Contreras: (CHC) @ BOS DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,900
Plenty of upside for Contreras with LHP Drew Pomeranz pitching at Fenway.
Alex Avila: (DET) vs. CWS DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,700
Worth a look as an addition a Tigers stack against RHP Mike Pelfrey.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,500
It may be repetitive to recommend Goldschmidt each and every day, but there’s nothing tired about cashing on a nightly basis. He’s simply been the best play in 3 consecutive outings with 8 hits, including 2 doubles, a HR, 2 walks and 2 SB during that span. Tonight the lefty-killer faces a rookie southpaw in Kyle Freeland, who is lucky to only have a 3.32 ERA with his 1.48 WHIP and 4.23 xFIP so far this year. Goldschmidt is hitting a scorching .438 with 6 doubles, 4 HR and 10 walks over 59 plate appearances at home this year and hit .352 with the third-best wOBA (.449) against LHP last season.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) vs. HOU DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,200
Could start to heat up again in a plus matchup against RHP Charlie Morton.
Adrian Gonzalez: (LAD) vs. PHI DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,700
Perhaps the Dodgers make RHP Jerad Eickhoff’s good start look like nothing more than success against weak strength of schedule.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ MIA DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,000
A few seasons ago Harrison caught fire with elite upside and a dual threat ability unmatched by most utility men throughout the league. He’s worth a look with the platoon advantage tonight against LHP Adam Conley, who posted a 4.84 xFIP with a 1.40 WHIP last year and gave up a .357 wOBA while struggling during the second half. Harrison is a career .296 hitter and is 10-for-29 with 2 HR off lefties so far this year, so he should be able to pay off this modest price tag.
Starlin Castro: (NYY) vs. BAL DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100
Worth considering as an addition to a Yankees stack against struggling RHP Kevin Gausman.
Jonathan Villar: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,400
Only a matter of time before Villar starts flashing his upside and he’s already starting to heat up for the Brewers.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) @ BOS DK: $5,200 / FD: $4,200
The Cubs and Red Sox meet at Fenway with the weather warming in Boston and both offenses capable of breaking out of the small confines of that urban ballpark. Bryant and the Cubbies are far more likely to get going than the host Sox in a plus matchup against LHP Drew Pomeranz, who posted a 4.04 ERA with a 1.55 HR/9 ratio at home last season. Bryant posted the fifth-highest ISO Mark (.327) and seventh-best wOBA (.438) against lefties last season and he’s been hot lately with 7 hits and 4 walks over his last 3 appearances.
Justin Turner: (LAD) vs. PHI DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,700
Turner is usually more dangerous in RvR matchups and is a great value on DK against Jerad Eickhoff.
Jose Ramirez: (CLE) vs. SEA DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,000
Indians could be all over sophomore southpaw Ariel Miranda after he struggled in his last outing.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. NYM DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,100
Moving from Coors Field to Nationals Park should only do a little to cool off Turner, who absolutely scalded the ball with 10 hits, including 4 doubles, 2 HR and a triple over 3 games against the Rockies. He’s coming back stronger after a short stint on the DL and happened to hit .363 with a .421 wOBA at home last season. Jacob deGrom is a formidable pitcher for the Mets, but Noah Syndergaard he is not, and Turner is 2-for-6 with a double over limited tests against the RHP. With speed and power, you’re not going to get a more appealing GPP play at a middle infield position.
Jordy Mercer: (PIT) @ MIA DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,200
Dirt cheap RHB to consider as a low-upside option against LHP Adam Conley.
Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. PHI DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,500
Another Dodgers bat to consider against Eickhoff and he’s rolling right now.
A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,200
You look a Mike Trout and Bryce Harper at their lofty price tags and it’s awfully tempting to pay up for them (especially Trout) tonight, but Pollock is significantly cheaper on DK with similar upside in his matchup. If Kyle Freeland struggles at hitter-friendly Chase Field, the Diamondbacks lineup should come through again and Pollock can serve as the head of that stack. He’s off to a great start with a .316 batting average and .363 wOBA while batting back from a lost 2016 campaign and has posted a .365 wOBA with a .220 ISO Mark in his career against lefties.
Odubel Herrera: (PHI) vs. LAD DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,600
Herrera could serve as a cheap cash game option tonight in what is a better matchup than it may appear. Kenta Maeda is a solid RHP for the Dodgers, but he doesn’t match up particularly well against a LHB in Herrera, who can stay back on the ball and rip lasers through the infield. Lefties are 14-for-50 with 3 doubles and 4 HR so far this season off Maeda and Herrera has been his consistent self while producing FPs in 7 consecutive appearances.