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Scouting The MLB DFS - Saturday, April 29

Cash in on Saturday's slates of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Hernan Perez carries plenty of upside when he starts and even though he’s not an everyday player he’s gone 6-for-11 with 2 HR, 3 XBH and a SB over his last 3 appearances. Perez posted a .329 wOBA and .208 ISO Mark against the platoon last season and is 4-for-10 off lefties so far this year, so he’s a good option to consider against vulnerable LHP Jaime Garcia.

Fade: Zack Greinke appeared to be back to form with a dominant outing against the lowly Padres, but he’s hard to trust at Chase Field, which has a very high Run Factor, against a Rockies team with good splits against him and plenty of dangerous batters on both sides of the plate.

Team Target Stacks

Brewers: Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, Ryan Braun, Manny Pina

Cardinals: Aledyms Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty

Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas

Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge

Indians: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Weather Report

Strong chance of rain in St. Louis, Detroit, Texas and Kansas City today.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Yu Darvish: (TEX) vs. LAA DK: $11,900/FD: $10,300

Darvish will clearly be a pitcher that you’ll want to pivot away from if the weather looks extremely concerning in Texas, but right now it looks like storms should delay the start and then dissipate for the most part. If he gets a full workload against the lowly Angels lineup, we should see more lofty K numbers from Yu after he struck out 10 over 7 scoreless innings in Anaheim earlier this month. He’s been up and down depending on the matchup, yet it’s hard to imagine him struggling against a team that’s sporting the fourth-lowest wOBA (.288) with a 20.7% K-Rate on the year and current Halos are 33-for-142 (.232) with 44 K’s in their careers against Darvish.

Dan Straily (MIA) vs. PIT DK: $9,200/FD: $8,300

He followed up a no-hit bid with a surprising 14-strikeout performance against the lowly Padres and Straily is definitely worth a look at home tonight against a struggling offense. Pittsburgh has scored the second-fewest runs (71) with a collective .233 batting average so far this year and just lost top hitter Starling Marte to an 80-game suspension Straily’s K/9 ratio has jumped to 10.45 with that uncharacteristic outing against San Diego and even if he doesn’t post a lot of K’s, he should be able to twirl another Quality Start at home against a depleted lineup.

Potential Value

Mike Leake: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $7,800 / FD: $8,600 (Afternoon)

Coming off yet another Quality Start- his fourth straight to begin the year- Leake is an easy cash game option considering the likelihood that he earns his fourth consecutive win with a decent outing today. The Cardianls offense should be productive against 40-year-old RHP Bronson Arroyo, who has been a punching bag with at least one homer and 2 ER allowed per outing this year. Contrarily, Leake has been tough to square up and has yet to give up a homer over 27.1 IP so far this year, while he opened the season with an eight-inning gem against his former team in the Reds and could baffle his old teammates once again.

Longshot

Jimmy Nelson: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $7,300 / FD: $7,700

You should feel alright about going out on a limb with Nelson after he was roughed up in consecutive outings against N.L. Central mainstays in the Cardinals and Cubs. Yet now he faces a relatively weak Braves lineup at home and his ability to succeed against the platoon (.248 BAA and 17.1% Line Drive Rate against LHB last year) should help him limit a lefty-heavy lineup. The Brewers meanwhile, should be all over vulnerable LHP Jaime Garcia and provide ample run support for Nelson, who is holding batters to a career-best 13% LD Rate through 4 appearances and seemed poised to figure things out at the start of his 2017 campaign.

Batters

Catchers

Manny Pina: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $2,800 / FD: $2,900

Pina got the night off on Friday and that should indicate that he’ll be in the Brewers lineup in an effort to platoon against vulnerable LHP Jaime Garcia. The Braves southpaw posted a league-worst 20.2% HR/FB ratio and allowed RHB to post a .349 wOBA while coughing up a 32.6% Hard Contact Rate versus righties last year. Pina is 7-for-14 with 2 doubles off lefties so far this season and generally spraying lasers with a 61.5% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon.

Potential Value

Brian McCann: (HOU) vs. OAK DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,200

Plenty of upside for McCann in a matchup against inconsistent young RHP Andrew Triggs.

Longshot

Miguel Montero: (CHC) @ BOS DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,900

Matches up well against RH knuckler Steven Wright, who is a wildcard in his own right.

First Basemen

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $5,200 / FD: $4,600

The schedule has been extremely kind to Mr. Goldschmidt as he faces a LH starter for the third time over his last four starts. He’s been red hot with 8 hits, including 2 doubles, a HR, 2 walks and 2 SB during that span and now the lefty-killer faces another vulnerable southpaw in Tyelr Anderson, who is posting a 7.11 ERA with a 20.7% HR/FB ratio and troublesome 39.2% Ground Ball Rate so far this year. Goldschmidt is hitting a scorching .438 with 6 doubles, 4 HR and 10 walks over 59 plate appearances at home this year and hit .352 with the third-best wOBA (.449) against LHP last season.

Potential Value

Adam Lind: (WAS) vs. NYM DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,900

Could serve as a very cheap addition to a Nats stack against RHP Zack Wheeler.

Longshot

Eric Thames: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,100

It may be a LvL matchup, but Thames is still worth a look against a homer-prone pitcher in Garcia.

Second Basemen

Jonathan Villar: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,400

With a vulnerable lefty on the mound, the Brewers righty-heavy lineup is certainly worth stacking tonight and their two most dangerous batters in RvL matchups stand out. Along with Ryan Braun, Villar crushed lefties last year with a .309 batting average and .236 ISO Mark against the platoon and he went 16-for-17 on stolen base attempts against LHP as well. Garcia struggled mightily with a 4.67 ERA last year and righties are 18-for-76 off him with 4 homers to post a .359 wOBA so far this season.

Potential Value

Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ MIA DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,000

Worth a look at this price tag even if you’re also using Straily.

Longshot

Rougned Odor: (TEX) vs. LAA DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,200

Heating up in time for a plus matchup against RHP Jesse Chavez.

Third Basemen

Jedd Gyorko: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,100 (Afternoon)

Gyorko is the type of batter who swings out of his shoes at most appealing pitches and that’s led to a very low career average, but also creates plenty of upside when considering GPP plays. This afternoon the Cardinals face one of the most homer-prone pitchers out there in 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo, who is sporting a 6.86 ERA with a 2.57 HR/9 ratio through 4 appearances this year. Gyorko is 3-for-7 with a double over a small sample against Arroyo, but something tells me he’s going to leave the yard today.

Potential Value

Chase Headley: (NYY) vs. BAL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,500

Should produce in some fashion against vulnerable RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.

Longshot

Mike Moustakas: (KC) vs. MIN DK: $3,100 / FD: $3,300

Moose is capable of timing up a RHP in Phil Hughes, who pounds the zone to a fault.

Shortstops

Francisco Lindor: (CLE) vs. SEA DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,000

It’s time to go back to the Indians elite shortstop along with the rest of that dangerous lineup in a plus matchup against veteran RHP Yovani Gallardo. The Mariners starter is coming off a great outing against the lowly A’s offense, but prior to that was knocked around for 11 ER while posting a 9:6 K/BB ratio over his previous 3 outings. Gallardo posted a 1.75 WHIP and 5.25 FIP when facing lefties last season and Lindor is 17-for-63 (.320) with 6 XBH and 4 HR off RHP so far this season, while he remains an excellent dual threat with as good a floor-ceiling combo as any batter on the board.

Potential Value

Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $4,000 / FD: $2,900

Happens to have 2 HR over just 3 career at-bats against Arroyo.

Longshot

Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. PHI DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,700

Can definitely stay hot in a matchup against inexperienced RHP Zack Elfin.

Outfielders

Bryce Harper: (WAS) vs. NYM DK: $5,400 / FD: $5,000 (Afternoon)

I’m calling a shot for Harper today and you basically need him to homer to pay off that lofty price tag on FanDuel. He’s been electric all season with a .418/.525/.823 slash line and ridiculous 246 wRC+ to reassert his status as an MVP candidate and faces a vulnerable RHP tonight in Zack Wheeler, who has posted a 5.40 ERA over 4 appearances while attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery. Wheeler allowed lefties to post a .335 wOBA before his surgery back in 2014, but this year LHB are 12-for-45 (.300) with 3 HR off him and Harper is the most dangerous lefty in the game.

Hernan Perez: (MIL) vs. ATL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,100

A Brewers stack against Jaime Garcia is such a good idea tonight but so many of Milwaukee’s righties come at discounted price tags. Perez carries plenty of upside when he starts and even though he’s not an everyday player he’s gone 6-for-11 with 2 HR, 3 XBH and a SB over his last 3 appearances. Perez posted a .329 wOBA and .208 ISO Mark against the platoon last season and is 4-for-10 off lefties so far this year, while he’s also nabbed a bag off Garcia over 16 career at-bats.

Potential Values

Jacoby Ellsbury: (NYY) vs. BAL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
A.J. Pollock: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $4,500 / FD: $4,000
Andrew Benintendi: (BOS) vs. CHC DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,700

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