Plays of the Day
Value: Josh Harrison is 11-for-31 (.423) with 2 HR against the platoon so far this year and is raking in general with a .351/.390/.514 slash line over his last 10 appearances. He has dual threat upside and is worth a look against rookie southpaw Amir Garrett.
Fade: Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto could get into a competitive duel tonight, but it’s hard to pay up for either stud in a H2H matchup, especially Kershaw at his still ridiculous price tag. Save with some high-upside SP in the mid-tier range and pay up for elite bats.
Team Target Stacks
Astros: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Brian McCann
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty
Indians: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
Royals: Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras
Chance of rain in New York (Yankees) and Chicago (Cubs) tonight.
Julio Teheran: (ATL) vs. NYM DK: $8,500/FD: $8,400
There’s nothing wrong with paying up for Clayton Kershaw or going somewhat contrarian with Johnny Cueto in their high-priced matchup, but Teheran is one of several appealing mid-tier options available tonight. He’s facing a Mets team that he’s owned in the past with a 2.15 ERA and .185 BAA over his last 11 meetings and sure enough, he held the Mets to just 2 runs over 6.1 innings of work to earn a win at Citi Field last Wednesday. Teheran posted a 2.86 ERA and .221 BAA at home over the last three seasons and his adversary, Robert Gsellman, is more vulnerable than your average Mets starter, plus Yoenis Cespedes (hamstring) is notably absent from the Mets lineup.
Gerrit Cole: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $8,100/FD: $9,000
Here’s another SP in the mid-tier range with plenty of upside even if Cole comes with some risk. The Pirates young flamethrower posted his fourth consecutive Quality Start last Tuesday and struck out 8 for a second consecutive outing, yet he somehow took a loss while allowing just 2 hits and a single unearned run over 7 innings. He’s limited the Cardinals and Cubs dangerous lineups recently and now faces a Reds team that’s been mediocre offensively this year. Current Reds are sporting a 29.2% K-Rate over 89 career at-bats against Cole, who has been chewing through innings with an efficient approach.
Jason Vargas: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $7,400 / FD: $8,700
He’s facing the White Sox in a second consecutive appearance after giving up 4 runs (3 earned) in a mediocre start at Chicago last Monday. Yet he still produced double-digit FPs for the fourth time in four tries this season and continued to mix in ground balls with K’s as he has all season with a 47% GB Rate and 9.82 K/9 ratio. The White Sox are sporting the ninth-highest K-Rate (22.6%) with a weak .239 batting average this season and represent a relatively easy matchup for Vargas, while the Royals surging offense should continue to come around against vulnerable rookie Dylan Covey.
Luis Severino: (NYY) vs. TOR DK: $8,000 / FD: $8,500
After he shut down the Red Sox dangerous offense over 7 stellar innings of work, it’s certainly worth gambling on Severino against a far inferior lineup. Toronto is really struggling to score runs with Edwin Encarnacion gone and Josh Donaldson (calf) injured, as they rank 28th in runs scored and collective wOBA (.284) this year. Current Blue Jays are 8-for-38 (.21) with 10 K’s in a limited sample against Severino, who is sporting a sparkling 2.17 xFIP and 2.92 FIP to belie his 3.00 ERA and seemed to put it all together in his last outing.
Brian McCann: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,000
If McCann starts behind the plate for a third straight game, he’ll serve as a great addition to a potential Astros stack against RHP Andrew Cashner. Cashner looked pretty vulnerable in his last outing against a relatively shallow Twins lineup and now he’ll have to contend with the slugging Astros, while his 6.19 FIP indicates that his 2.93 ERA to this point has been a bit lucky. Cashner allowed lefties to hit .286 with a .380 wOBA and posted a 1.53 HR/9 ratio against the platoon last year, while McCann is sporting a 14.3% HR/FB ratio and solid .279 batting average on the young season.
Manny Pina: (MIL) @ STL DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,800
Still a great value option to consider in a relatively tough matchup against RHP Michael Wacha.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,800
The Marlins host RHP Jake Odorizzi, who is trying to pitch through a hamstring injury.
Freddie Freeman: (ATL) vs. NYM DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,600
With a .383 batting average and 1.263 OPS through 22 games this season, Freeman would be an MVP candidate if not for the overall deficiencies of his team. Yet the Braves could come together for a win over a divisional rival tonight and Freeman should maintain his hot streak in a plus matchup against RHP Robert Gsellman, who is sporting a 6.23 ERA and giving up a 25.7% Line Drive Rate so far this season. Lefties posted a 36.5% Hard Contact Rate off Gsellman during his rookie year and Freeman is mashing RHP with a .533 average and .695 wOBA at home against righties this season.
Eric Hosmer: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $4,000 / FD: $2,800
He’s starting to come around after an early slump and will have the platoon advantage against rookie RHP Dylan Covey.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) vs. PHI DK: $5,200 / FD: $4,700
A fantastic tournament play against homer-prone RHP Vince Velasquez.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,900
The Pirates face a rookie LHP tonight in Amir Garrett, who was lit up for 9 ER and 3 homers by a Brewers team that mashes against southpaws and will now face a team that posted the fifth-highest collective wOBA (.331) in the Majors against lefties last season. Harrison is 11-for-31 (.423) with 2 HR against the platoon so far this year and is raking in general with a .351/.390/.514 slash line over his last 10 appearances. He has dual threat upside and is clearly returning to form after a down year in 2016.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,100
Good bet to set the table for the Fish with the platoon advantage tonight against Odorizzi.
Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,000
Fantastic option to pay up for against RHP Andrew Cashner.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) vs. PHI DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,300
He seemed to find his power stroke with two homers and a pair of doubles over the weekend at Fenway Park and now Bryant returns to hitter-friendly Wrigley to face a vulnerable pitcher. Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez has given up a homer in all four of his appearances with a 22.7% HR/FB ratio and 6.33 ERA on the year, while depending far too much on swings and misses to get batters out. With a .375/.469/.650 slash line over his last 10 appearances, Bryant is still clearly in MVP form and capable of carrying the Cubbies once again.
Jedd Gyorko: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
Has plenty of upside in a plus matchup against young RHP Zach Davies.
Mike Moustakas: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,500
Could serve as a great addition to a Royals stack against RHP Dylan Covey.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ DET DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,000
It’s tough to pass on Lindor after he logged 2 hits for the second time over his last 3 appearances, including a double, HR and 3 RBI on Sunday. Now he could serve as the best addition to an Indians stack against LHP Daniel Norris, who is giving up a 41.9% Hard Contact Rate with a 4.71 ERA over 4 appearances this year. Lindor actually produced more Hard Contact (29% Rate) last season and has been effective as a switch hitter from either side of the plate, while you can’t expect Norris to last too long against the defending A.L. champions.
Tim Beckham: (TB) @ MIA DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,700
He won’t have trouble catching up with the soft stuff thrown by LHP Wei-Yin Chen and is batting a solid .324 over his last 10 appearances.
Xander Bogaerts: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,200
Strangely cheap on FanDuel and a good bet to produce if Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy continues to struggle at hitter-friendly Fenway.
George Springer: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,300
Here’s another Astros batter to consider against Rangers SP Andrew Cashner, who really struggled with a 5.25 ERA and 14.5% HR/FB ratio last season while pitching for two teams. Springer is more than capable of tagging the vulnerable righty with his immense .264 ISO Mark so far this season. He’s the type of hitter that swings for the fences and that makes him a bit of a risky play, but it’s hard to ignore Springer’s potential, especially as a true value on FanDuel.
Stephen Piscotty: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,300
The Cardinals offense is struggling with some collective inconsistencies, but Piscotty has been hot lately with 3 doubles, 3 walks a SB and 2 RBI over his last 5 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a RHP in Zach Davies, who is struggling with a 6.57 ERA and a somewhat unlucky .386 BABIP, yet he’s giving up a 42.9% Hard Contact Rate while allowing RHB to go 22-for-56 (.440) with 8 XBH so far this season. Piscotty is 4-for-12 over a small sample size against Davies, which isn’t as impressive as the splits of teammates Jedd Gyorko (7-for-10) or Matt Carpenter (5-for-13), but it still indicates that he can tag the young righty.