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Scouting The MLB DFS - Tuesday, May 2

Cash in on tonight's full slate of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Matt Carpenter is an absurd 20-for-43 with 6 doubles and 3 HR in his career against Brewers RHP Wily Peralta and he opened his last meeting with the righty by doubling in the first inning. He’s starting to find his groove with 2 double, a HR and 2 walks over his last 2 games and is worth a look as a mid-tier option.

Fade: Corey Kluber is coming off two good starts in a row but he’s had trouble with the Tigers lineup in the past and Detroit is getting Miguel Cabrera (groin) back in time for this home tilt.

Team Target Stacks

Nationals: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman

Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Jedd Gyorko, Randal Grichuk

Marlins: Dee Gordon, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton

Twins: Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Weather Report

Strong winds blowing OUT in Boston, Cincy and New York (Yankees) tonight.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Chris Sale: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $12,500/FD: $11,700

Venues aside, I’ll take Chris Sale over any SP in the game this season and that includes the mythic Clayton Kershaw. While he does pitch at cramped Fenway Park, the Red Sox ace is still an absolutely elite option to pay up for tonight against an Orioles team that posted the second-lowest average (.234) with a 22.5% K-Rate against lefties last season. Current O’s are 23-for-89 (.258) with a 29.2% K-Rate in their careers against Sale, who is turning it up now that he’s pitching for a contender with the second-best ERA (1.19), FIP (1.16) and third-best K/9 ratio (12.42) through 5 outings.

James Paxton: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $9,200/FD: $9,300

Paxton went over a speed bump in his previous outing, but quickly got back to cruising speed with a 7-inning, 9-strikeout shutdown performance to blank the Tigers in Detroit. Now he’ll face one of the weakest overall lineups in the Majors with almost nothing to protect Mike Trout and the Angels were generally less effective when facing lefties last season. Paxton has yet to allow a homer this year and is sporting a sparkling 1.17 FIP to go along with his 1.39 ERA, plus he carries plenty of upside with a 10.86 K/9 ratio due in part to a boost in velocity.

Potential Value

Ervin Santana: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $8,600 / FD: $9,200

Surprisingly one of the stingiest pitchers in the MLB so far this season, Santana leads the league with a 0.77 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP through 4 outings. He showed signs of dramatic improvement with a 2.65 ERA and .224 BAA during the second half of the 2016 season and has carried that momentum into a hot start. Now he’ll face an Athletics lineup that posted the lowest wOBA (.302) amongst A.L. teams last season and is currently sporting a collective .302 wOBA through one month of this campaign. Clearly, he’s worth a look at home as a very solid cash game play.

Longshot

Matt Moore: (SF) @ LAD DK: $8,200 / FD: $7,900

Both Moore and his adversary, fellow southpaw Alex Wood, are worth a look tonight in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against teams that don’t typically light up the scoreboard. While Moore’s been inconsistent over the past couple of seasons, he’s dominated in 3 of his last 4 outings against the Dodgers, allowing just 5 hits, 2 ER and striking out 21 while going at least 7 innings in each appearance. The Dodgers posted the lowest collective batting average (.213) in the Majors against lefties last year and are once again towards the bottom of the MLB with a .218 batting average, as most of their dangerous batters are lefties.

Batters

Catchers

Matt Wieters: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,000

He’s likely to attract a lot of attention for his part (2 HR, 4 RBI) in the Nationals 23-run explosion against the Mets on Sunday, but Wieters is still a valuable addition to what could be the best stack of the night. After all, the Nats are leading the Majors with a collective .379 batting average and .475 wOBA, while Wieters is starting to join the hit parade, as he’s 8-for-18 with 3 HR and 3 walks over his last 5 appearances. Tonight he’ll have the platoon advantage against inconsistent RHP Taijuan Walker and Wieters happens to be 4-for-6 with a double and HR in his career off Walker.

Potential Value

Manny Pina: (MIL) @ STL DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,700

With two more hits last night, Pina is now batting .385 on the year.

Longshot

Buster Posey: (SF) @ LAD DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,500

He certainly has a chance to produce with the platoon advantage against LHP Alex Wood.

First Basemen

Matt Carpenter: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,800

Every time he faces the Red Birds, it seems to go very poorly for RHP Wily Peralta, as he was recently tagged for 6 ER on 9 hits in a start against the Cardinals. Now he’ll go on the road against a team that’s sporting a collective .314 batting average with 12 XBH and 5 HR over 194 career at-bats against him. Matt Carpenter leads the way with absurd splits (20-for-43, 6 doubles, 3 HR) in his career against Peralta and he opened his last meeting with the righty by doubling in the first inning. He’s starting to find his groove with 2 double, a HR and 2 walks over his last 2 games and was also robbed of an XBH by Brewers CF Keon Broxton last night, so give Carp a chance in a prime matchup.

Potential Value

Justin Bour: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,100

He’s been raking lately and faces a struggling in RHP Alex Cobb.

Longshot

Cody Bellinger: (LAD) vs. SF DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400 as OF

One of the few RHB in the Dodgers lineup now and he’s producing as a rookie.

Second Basemen

Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,000

Rangers LHP Cole Hamels appears to be in decline at the age of 33 with a 5.16 FIP that belies his decent 3.03 ERA through 5 appearances this season. He’s particularly vulnerable against an Astros lineup that can mash against lefties, led by a lefty-killer in Altuve, who posted a .378 wOBA against the platoon last season. He’s 5-for-15 with a HR in his career against Hamels and has logged multiple hits in consecutive games heading into this plus matchup at home.

Potential Value

Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300

Continued to rake last night and draws a plus matchup against RHP Alex Cobb.

Longshot

Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000

Wouldn’t blame you for riding the hot hand in Harrison after his first career two-HR game.

Third Basemen

Miguel Sano: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,700

At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, Sano obviously can crush baseballs and he’s currently seventh in the Majors with a .367 ISO Mark on the season. That makes him a high-upside option against a RHP in Sonny Gray, who has never really been the same since going through surgery with a 5.69 ERA and 17.5% HR/FB ratio last season. Gray will make his season debut tonight against a lineup that can really slug and Sano is an incredible 11-for-21 with 3 HR and 11 RBI over his last 4 appearances.

Potential Value

Chase Headley: (NYY) vs. TOR DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,400

A solid addition to a Yankees stack against RHP Mat Latos.

Longshot

Anthony Rendon: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000

Clearly worth a look after the best hitting performance of the century last Sunday.

Shortstops

Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,600

He’s one of the most talented young players in baseball and Segura clearly draws a superior matchup than the other top SS on the board tonight. Angels SP Matt Shoemaker is also quite talented, but he struggles against lefty-heavy lineups and was lit up by the Mariners for 6 ER over 4.1 IP in his second outing of the season. Segura reached based 3 times and scored 3 runs while adding a stolen base off Shoemaker in that slugfest and he’s due to flash that tremendous upside any night.

Potential Value

Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,900

He had a big game last night and is a viable addition to a Cardinals stack against RHP Wily Peralta.

Longshot

Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,900

He has great splits against R.A. Dickey, who is dealing with a quad injury that could hamper him.

Outfielders

Bryce Harper: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $5,300 / FD: $5,200

Harper and the league-leading Nationals offense could be primed to explode tonight if D’Backs RHP Taijuan Walker isn’t on his game. The talented young pitcher has been very mercurial over the course of his five-year career, and he’s sporting a 1.38 HR/9 ratio when facing lefties during that span. Walker has given up 6 XBH and 3 HR over 74 at-bats against lefties this year, while Harper is terrorizing RHP with a .546 wOBA, .486 ISO Mark and a 33.3% HR/FB ratio as he’s launched 9 dingers off righties already.

Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,500

Cruz has been crushing the ball lately with 6 homers and a .467/.538/1.067 slash line over his last 10 appearances and he’s certainly worth a look at home against inconsistent RHP Matt Shoemaker. When he struggles, the Angels SP usually gives up the long ball, as he’s giving up a 2.03 HR/9 ratio and 19.4% HR/FB ratio through 5 appearances this season. He’s given up 11 HR with a 4-4 record and 4.00 ERA over his last 11 appearances against Seattle and Cruz is 7-for-23 with 2 HR in his career against Shoemaker.

Potential Values

Andrew Benintendi: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $4,000 / FD: $4,100
Carlos Gomez: (TEX) @ HOU DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,600
Michael Conforto: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,500

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