Plays of the Day
Value: Matt Carpenter is an absurd 20-for-43 with 6 doubles and 3 HR in his career against Brewers RHP Wily Peralta and he opened his last meeting with the righty by doubling in the first inning. He’s starting to find his groove with 2 double, a HR and 2 walks over his last 2 games and is worth a look as a mid-tier option.
Fade: Corey Kluber is coming off two good starts in a row but he’s had trouble with the Tigers lineup in the past and Detroit is getting Miguel Cabrera (groin) back in time for this home tilt.
Team Target Stacks
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Jedd Gyorko, Randal Grichuk
Marlins: Dee Gordon, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton
Twins: Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano
Strong winds blowing OUT in Boston, Cincy and New York (Yankees) tonight.
Chris Sale: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $12,500/FD: $11,700
Venues aside, I’ll take Chris Sale over any SP in the game this season and that includes the mythic Clayton Kershaw. While he does pitch at cramped Fenway Park, the Red Sox ace is still an absolutely elite option to pay up for tonight against an Orioles team that posted the second-lowest average (.234) with a 22.5% K-Rate against lefties last season. Current O’s are 23-for-89 (.258) with a 29.2% K-Rate in their careers against Sale, who is turning it up now that he’s pitching for a contender with the second-best ERA (1.19), FIP (1.16) and third-best K/9 ratio (12.42) through 5 outings.
James Paxton: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $9,200/FD: $9,300
Paxton went over a speed bump in his previous outing, but quickly got back to cruising speed with a 7-inning, 9-strikeout shutdown performance to blank the Tigers in Detroit. Now he’ll face one of the weakest overall lineups in the Majors with almost nothing to protect Mike Trout and the Angels were generally less effective when facing lefties last season. Paxton has yet to allow a homer this year and is sporting a sparkling 1.17 FIP to go along with his 1.39 ERA, plus he carries plenty of upside with a 10.86 K/9 ratio due in part to a boost in velocity.
Ervin Santana: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $8,600 / FD: $9,200
Surprisingly one of the stingiest pitchers in the MLB so far this season, Santana leads the league with a 0.77 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP through 4 outings. He showed signs of dramatic improvement with a 2.65 ERA and .224 BAA during the second half of the 2016 season and has carried that momentum into a hot start. Now he’ll face an Athletics lineup that posted the lowest wOBA (.302) amongst A.L. teams last season and is currently sporting a collective .302 wOBA through one month of this campaign. Clearly, he’s worth a look at home as a very solid cash game play.
Matt Moore: (SF) @ LAD DK: $8,200 / FD: $7,900
Both Moore and his adversary, fellow southpaw Alex Wood, are worth a look tonight in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against teams that don’t typically light up the scoreboard. While Moore’s been inconsistent over the past couple of seasons, he’s dominated in 3 of his last 4 outings against the Dodgers, allowing just 5 hits, 2 ER and striking out 21 while going at least 7 innings in each appearance. The Dodgers posted the lowest collective batting average (.213) in the Majors against lefties last year and are once again towards the bottom of the MLB with a .218 batting average, as most of their dangerous batters are lefties.
Matt Wieters: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,000
He’s likely to attract a lot of attention for his part (2 HR, 4 RBI) in the Nationals 23-run explosion against the Mets on Sunday, but Wieters is still a valuable addition to what could be the best stack of the night. After all, the Nats are leading the Majors with a collective .379 batting average and .475 wOBA, while Wieters is starting to join the hit parade, as he’s 8-for-18 with 3 HR and 3 walks over his last 5 appearances. Tonight he’ll have the platoon advantage against inconsistent RHP Taijuan Walker and Wieters happens to be 4-for-6 with a double and HR in his career off Walker.
Manny Pina: (MIL) @ STL DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,700
With two more hits last night, Pina is now batting .385 on the year.
Buster Posey: (SF) @ LAD DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,500
He certainly has a chance to produce with the platoon advantage against LHP Alex Wood.
Matt Carpenter: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,800
Every time he faces the Red Birds, it seems to go very poorly for RHP Wily Peralta, as he was recently tagged for 6 ER on 9 hits in a start against the Cardinals. Now he’ll go on the road against a team that’s sporting a collective .314 batting average with 12 XBH and 5 HR over 194 career at-bats against him. Matt Carpenter leads the way with absurd splits (20-for-43, 6 doubles, 3 HR) in his career against Peralta and he opened his last meeting with the righty by doubling in the first inning. He’s starting to find his groove with 2 double, a HR and 2 walks over his last 2 games and was also robbed of an XBH by Brewers CF Keon Broxton last night, so give Carp a chance in a prime matchup.
Justin Bour: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,100
He’s been raking lately and faces a struggling in RHP Alex Cobb.
Cody Bellinger: (LAD) vs. SF DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400 as OF
One of the few RHB in the Dodgers lineup now and he’s producing as a rookie.
Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,000
Rangers LHP Cole Hamels appears to be in decline at the age of 33 with a 5.16 FIP that belies his decent 3.03 ERA through 5 appearances this season. He’s particularly vulnerable against an Astros lineup that can mash against lefties, led by a lefty-killer in Altuve, who posted a .378 wOBA against the platoon last season. He’s 5-for-15 with a HR in his career against Hamels and has logged multiple hits in consecutive games heading into this plus matchup at home.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. TB DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300
Continued to rake last night and draws a plus matchup against RHP Alex Cobb.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000
Wouldn’t blame you for riding the hot hand in Harrison after his first career two-HR game.
Miguel Sano: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,700
At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, Sano obviously can crush baseballs and he’s currently seventh in the Majors with a .367 ISO Mark on the season. That makes him a high-upside option against a RHP in Sonny Gray, who has never really been the same since going through surgery with a 5.69 ERA and 17.5% HR/FB ratio last season. Gray will make his season debut tonight against a lineup that can really slug and Sano is an incredible 11-for-21 with 3 HR and 11 RBI over his last 4 appearances.
Chase Headley: (NYY) vs. TOR DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,400
A solid addition to a Yankees stack against RHP Mat Latos.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000
Clearly worth a look after the best hitting performance of the century last Sunday.
Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,600
He’s one of the most talented young players in baseball and Segura clearly draws a superior matchup than the other top SS on the board tonight. Angels SP Matt Shoemaker is also quite talented, but he struggles against lefty-heavy lineups and was lit up by the Mariners for 6 ER over 4.1 IP in his second outing of the season. Segura reached based 3 times and scored 3 runs while adding a stolen base off Shoemaker in that slugfest and he’s due to flash that tremendous upside any night.
Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,900
He had a big game last night and is a viable addition to a Cardinals stack against RHP Wily Peralta.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,900
He has great splits against R.A. Dickey, who is dealing with a quad injury that could hamper him.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $5,300 / FD: $5,200
Harper and the league-leading Nationals offense could be primed to explode tonight if D’Backs RHP Taijuan Walker isn’t on his game. The talented young pitcher has been very mercurial over the course of his five-year career, and he’s sporting a 1.38 HR/9 ratio when facing lefties during that span. Walker has given up 6 XBH and 3 HR over 74 at-bats against lefties this year, while Harper is terrorizing RHP with a .546 wOBA, .486 ISO Mark and a 33.3% HR/FB ratio as he’s launched 9 dingers off righties already.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. LAA DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,500
Cruz has been crushing the ball lately with 6 homers and a .467/.538/1.067 slash line over his last 10 appearances and he’s certainly worth a look at home against inconsistent RHP Matt Shoemaker. When he struggles, the Angels SP usually gives up the long ball, as he’s giving up a 2.03 HR/9 ratio and 19.4% HR/FB ratio through 5 appearances this season. He’s given up 11 HR with a 4-4 record and 4.00 ERA over his last 11 appearances against Seattle and Cruz is 7-for-23 with 2 HR in his career against Shoemaker.