Plays of the Day
Value: While Lorenzo Cain has been cold lately and the Royals are struggling to score runs as a unit so far this year, Cthey face such a vulnerable pitcher tonight that they’re very much worth considering as a stack. White Sox RHP Mike Pelfrey has been touched up for 5 ER on 10 hits with 5 walks and just 3 K’s over two starts this season and sports a 65-92 record with a 4.57 ERA throughout his career and Cain is 8-for-16 in meetings with Pelfrey.
Fade: Carlos Carrasco is sporting great numbers over the past couple of seasons and he has plenty of upside due to his strikeout-potential, but the Tigers represent an all-too-familiar foe for him and that lineup just became much more formidable with a fresh Miguel Cabrera coming off the DL with a homer in his return last night.
Team Target Stacks
Pirates: Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts
Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield
Potential rain out in St. Louis tonight, while delays are possible in Minnesota.
Jacob deGrom: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $10,400/FD: $11,000
Probably the safest elite SP on the board tonight, deGrom faces a Braves lineup that doesn’t offer much behind red-hot lefty Freddie Freeman. Yet Friendly Freddie is just 4-for-22 (.182) with 7 K’s in his career against deGrom, who has posted a 25.2% K-Rate in his career against the Braves and was more consistent with a .237 BAA and 2.95 FIP when facing lefties last year. He’s off to a great start this season and just handled a much tougher matchup in the league-leading Nationals, so he can be trusted against a mediocre Braves offense.
Marcus Stroman: (TOR) @ NYY DK: $10,000/FD: $9,200
He revamped his approach and became an absolute ground-ball machine heading into this season and now the strikeouts are starting to come for Stroman. He struck out 10 with 12 ground ball outs in his last outing and is now sporting a 59.8% GB Rate on the season to support his 2.84 FIP and 2.97 ERA through 5 appearances. His only blip came in a home start against the Red Sox, but he’s owned the Yankees in the past, as current players in pinstripes are a combined 14-for-82 (.171) with 17 K’s in their careers against Stroman. He’s sporting a 1.17 ERA away from Toronto’s Rogers Centre this year to win each of his road starts thus far.
Antonio Senzatela: (COL) @ SD DK: $6,200 / FD: $6,700
Rockies pitchers often post poor numbers and have fluctuating price tags because of the added Run Factor in their home ballpark, but that can become an exploitable factor when they move to other venues, such as the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the MLB in Petco Park. Senzatela has been solid with a 2.81 ERA and 48.5% Ground Ball Rate and even if he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, he’s capable of posting a Quality Start and waiting for run support against washed up veteran Jered Weaver tonight. The Padres are also sporting the third-lowest batting average (.206) along with a 22% K-Rate against lefties this year.
Jake Arrieta: (CHC) vs. PHI DK: $10,900/FD: $10,100
While he predictably struggled at Fenway Park in a very tough matchup, Arrieta is an easy bounce back candidate in tonight’s matchup against the lowly Phillies. Philadelphia posted the lowest collective wOBA (.296) in the Majors last season and is sporting the sixth-highest K-Rate (23.3%) so far this year. Current Phillies are just 10-for-47 (.213) with 19 K’s in their careers against Arrieta, who posted a 2.62 ERA with a 10.38 K/9 ratio at home last year and is bound to break out of his funk soon.
Buster Posey: (SF) @ LAD DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600
Posey’s been such a consistent bargain on DK that he’s worth using on a nightly basis and certainly worth consideration in a plus matchup against an inexperienced lefty. Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias danced around 4 hits and 4 walks to only allow 1 ER over 5.2 IP in his last start at the Giants, but Posey and company could figure him out in an immediate rematch. He’s a career .327 batter with a .400 wOBA against the platoon and is producing with a .342/.390/.421 slash line over his last 10 appearances, if his teammates can come along they should be able to tag Urias at Dodger Stadium.
Manny Pina: (MIL) @ STL DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,700
He’s not starting every night, but if he does he’ll be a great value against RHP Adam Wainwright.
Evan Gattis: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,100
Worth a look as part of a potential stack against young RHP Nick Martinez.
Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,800
Diamondbacks LHP Robbie Ray is in the midst of a great start to his season, but he could run into a buzzsaw tonight in the form of a Nationals lineup that’s sporting a collective .475 wOBA and .336 ISO Mark against lefties this year. Zimmerman’s revival has been a big part of that, as he’s 7-for-15 with 3 HR off LHP and crushing it overall with a .474/.500/1.105 slash line and 7 homers over his last 10 appearances. Overall, the Nats are batting .350 (14-for-40) in their careers against Ray and Zim is 1-for-2 with a walk over that limited sample.
Eric Hosmer: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,800
Could continue to come around against weak RHP Mike Pelfrey.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ WAS DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,600
His career splits against LHP Gio Gonzalez are very impressive (8-for-12, 2 XBH) and Goldy has plenty of upside.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
Harrison homered yet again on Tuesday to make it 3 bombs over his last 2 appearances and tonight he faces the aptly named Rookie Davis, who is sporting a very rough 11.17 ERA with a 25% HR/FB ratio over 3 Major League appearances. A couple of seasons ago, Harrison was a borderline MVP candidate with a .315 batting average to go along with 13 HR, 77 RBI and 18 SB and he appears to have made the proper adjustments to produce on a similar level this season, we’ll see if he can maintain the blistering pace of his .378/.415/.703 slash line over his last 10 appearances.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ MIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,300
Decent cash game play that can offer a ton of salary relief.
Devon Travis: (TOR) @ NYY DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,300
He’s coming around with 4 hits over his last 2 appearances and will have the platoon advantage against LHP C.C. Sabathia tonight.
Nolan Arenado: (COL) @ SD DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,300
Arenado is one of the few Rockies batters who can offer just as much upside on the road due to his pure swing and limitless power. Tonight he’ll face a weak RHP in Jered Weaver, whose tenure in the MLB is quite tenuous at the age of 34. The spacious confines of Petco Park can only cover up so many mistakes considering he’s giving up a 3.14 HR/9 ratio with a 7.29 FIP so far this season and Arenado can really lift balls out with a career 14.5% HR/FB ratio.
Travis Shaw: (MIL) @ STL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,700
Worth a look as a value against aging RHP Adam Wainwright.
Miguel Sano: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,700
He’s absolutely on fire and is capable of tagging A’s young RHP Kendall Graveman.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,200
You can probably save a little money with Xander Bogaerts or Jean Segura in cash games on FanDuel, but no other SS offers the same upside as Turner. He’s on a roll with a .375/.412/.688 slash line with a staggering 8 XBH, 2 HR and 2 SB over his last 10 appearances and will have the platoon advantage tonight against LHP Robbie Ray. The D’Backs southpaw is sporting an 11.57 K/9 ratio, but also an 18.2% HR/FB ratio, so he’s vulnerable when facing slugging teams, such as a Nationals lineup that leads the Majors by far with a collective .478 wOBA thanks in part to elite RHB such as young Trea Turner.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,000
He’s been solid throughout most of the year and faces ancient RHP Bartolo Colon tonight.
Chris Owings: (ARI) @ WAS DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,300
Worth adding to a small stack of D’Backs righties against Gio Gonzalez.
Mookie Betts: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $5,200 / FD: $3,900
He hasn’t flashed much upside lately, but continues to produce, and Betts’ price tag on FanDuel is a bit of a head scratcher in this matchup. The Red Sox host a RHP in Kevin Gausman, who has really struggled at Fenway over the past few seasons and is currently sporting the second-worst ERA (7.50) along with a 6.07 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 ratio through 6 starts this year. Betts happens to be 10-for-23 with 3 HR in his career against Gausman and coincidentally enough has demolished Orioles pitching for the most part in his career.
Lorenzo Cain: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,500
While he’s been cold lately and the Royals are struggling to score runs as a unit so far this year, Cain and his teammates face such a vulnerable pitcher tonight that they’re very much worth considering as a stack. White Sox RHP Mike Pelfrey has been touched up for 5 ER on 10 hits with 5 walks and just 3 K’s over two starts this season and sports a 65-92 record with a 4.57 ERA throughout his career. Current Royals are batting .395 (49-for-124) and Cain is 8-for-16 off Pelfrey, while he’s been much more comfortable with a .341 batting average and .858 OPS at home this season.