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Scouting The MLB DFS - Wednesday, May 3

Cash in on tonight's full slate of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: While Lorenzo Cain has been cold lately and the Royals are struggling to score runs as a unit so far this year, Cthey face such a vulnerable pitcher tonight that they’re very much worth considering as a stack. White Sox RHP Mike Pelfrey has been touched up for 5 ER on 10 hits with 5 walks and just 3 K’s over two starts this season and sports a 65-92 record with a 4.57 ERA throughout his career and Cain is 8-for-16 in meetings with Pelfrey.

Fade: Carlos Carrasco is sporting great numbers over the past couple of seasons and he has plenty of upside due to his strikeout-potential, but the Tigers represent an all-too-familiar foe for him and that lineup just became much more formidable with a fresh Miguel Cabrera coming off the DL with a homer in his return last night.

Team Target Stacks

Pirates: Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen

Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond

Nationals: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman

Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts

Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield

Weather Report

Potential rain out in St. Louis tonight, while delays are possible in Minnesota.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Jacob deGrom: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $10,400/FD: $11,000

Probably the safest elite SP on the board tonight, deGrom faces a Braves lineup that doesn’t offer much behind red-hot lefty Freddie Freeman. Yet Friendly Freddie is just 4-for-22 (.182) with 7 K’s in his career against deGrom, who has posted a 25.2% K-Rate in his career against the Braves and was more consistent with a .237 BAA and 2.95 FIP when facing lefties last year. He’s off to a great start this season and just handled a much tougher matchup in the league-leading Nationals, so he can be trusted against a mediocre Braves offense.

Marcus Stroman: (TOR) @ NYY DK: $10,000/FD: $9,200

He revamped his approach and became an absolute ground-ball machine heading into this season and now the strikeouts are starting to come for Stroman. He struck out 10 with 12 ground ball outs in his last outing and is now sporting a 59.8% GB Rate on the season to support his 2.84 FIP and 2.97 ERA through 5 appearances. His only blip came in a home start against the Red Sox, but he’s owned the Yankees in the past, as current players in pinstripes are a combined 14-for-82 (.171) with 17 K’s in their careers against Stroman. He’s sporting a 1.17 ERA away from Toronto’s Rogers Centre this year to win each of his road starts thus far.

Potential Value

Antonio Senzatela: (COL) @ SD DK: $6,200 / FD: $6,700

Rockies pitchers often post poor numbers and have fluctuating price tags because of the added Run Factor in their home ballpark, but that can become an exploitable factor when they move to other venues, such as the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the MLB in Petco Park. Senzatela has been solid with a 2.81 ERA and 48.5% Ground Ball Rate and even if he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, he’s capable of posting a Quality Start and waiting for run support against washed up veteran Jered Weaver tonight. The Padres are also sporting the third-lowest batting average (.206) along with a 22% K-Rate against lefties this year.

Longshot

Jake Arrieta: (CHC) vs. PHI DK: $10,900/FD: $10,100

While he predictably struggled at Fenway Park in a very tough matchup, Arrieta is an easy bounce back candidate in tonight’s matchup against the lowly Phillies. Philadelphia posted the lowest collective wOBA (.296) in the Majors last season and is sporting the sixth-highest K-Rate (23.3%) so far this year. Current Phillies are just 10-for-47 (.213) with 19 K’s in their careers against Arrieta, who posted a 2.62 ERA with a 10.38 K/9 ratio at home last year and is bound to break out of his funk soon.

Batters

Catchers

Buster Posey: (SF) @ LAD DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600

Posey’s been such a consistent bargain on DK that he’s worth using on a nightly basis and certainly worth consideration in a plus matchup against an inexperienced lefty. Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias danced around 4 hits and 4 walks to only allow 1 ER over 5.2 IP in his last start at the Giants, but Posey and company could figure him out in an immediate rematch. He’s a career .327 batter with a .400 wOBA against the platoon and is producing with a .342/.390/.421 slash line over his last 10 appearances, if his teammates can come along they should be able to tag Urias at Dodger Stadium.

Potential Value

Manny Pina: (MIL) @ STL DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,700

He’s not starting every night, but if he does he’ll be a great value against RHP Adam Wainwright.

Longshot

Evan Gattis: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,100

Worth a look as part of a potential stack against young RHP Nick Martinez.

First Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,800

Diamondbacks LHP Robbie Ray is in the midst of a great start to his season, but he could run into a buzzsaw tonight in the form of a Nationals lineup that’s sporting a collective .475 wOBA and .336 ISO Mark against lefties this year. Zimmerman’s revival has been a big part of that, as he’s 7-for-15 with 3 HR off LHP and crushing it overall with a .474/.500/1.105 slash line and 7 homers over his last 10 appearances. Overall, the Nats are batting .350 (14-for-40) in their careers against Ray and Zim is 1-for-2 with a walk over that limited sample.

Potential Value

Eric Hosmer: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,800

Could continue to come around against weak RHP Mike Pelfrey.

Longshot

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ WAS DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,600

His career splits against LHP Gio Gonzalez are very impressive (8-for-12, 2 XBH) and Goldy has plenty of upside.

Second Basemen

Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300

Harrison homered yet again on Tuesday to make it 3 bombs over his last 2 appearances and tonight he faces the aptly named Rookie Davis, who is sporting a very rough 11.17 ERA with a 25% HR/FB ratio over 3 Major League appearances. A couple of seasons ago, Harrison was a borderline MVP candidate with a .315 batting average to go along with 13 HR, 77 RBI and 18 SB and he appears to have made the proper adjustments to produce on a similar level this season, we’ll see if he can maintain the blistering pace of his .378/.415/.703 slash line over his last 10 appearances.

Potential Value

Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ MIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,300

Decent cash game play that can offer a ton of salary relief.

Longshot

Devon Travis: (TOR) @ NYY DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,300

He’s coming around with 4 hits over his last 2 appearances and will have the platoon advantage against LHP C.C. Sabathia tonight.

Third Basemen

Nolan Arenado: (COL) @ SD DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,300

Arenado is one of the few Rockies batters who can offer just as much upside on the road due to his pure swing and limitless power. Tonight he’ll face a weak RHP in Jered Weaver, whose tenure in the MLB is quite tenuous at the age of 34. The spacious confines of Petco Park can only cover up so many mistakes considering he’s giving up a 3.14 HR/9 ratio with a 7.29 FIP so far this season and Arenado can really lift balls out with a career 14.5% HR/FB ratio.

Potential Value

Travis Shaw: (MIL) @ STL DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,700

Worth a look as a value against aging RHP Adam Wainwright.

Longshot

Miguel Sano: (MIN) vs. OAK DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,700

He’s absolutely on fire and is capable of tagging A’s young RHP Kendall Graveman.

Shortstops

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ARI DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,200

You can probably save a little money with Xander Bogaerts or Jean Segura in cash games on FanDuel, but no other SS offers the same upside as Turner. He’s on a roll with a .375/.412/.688 slash line with a staggering 8 XBH, 2 HR and 2 SB over his last 10 appearances and will have the platoon advantage tonight against LHP Robbie Ray. The D’Backs southpaw is sporting an 11.57 K/9 ratio, but also an 18.2% HR/FB ratio, so he’s vulnerable when facing slugging teams, such as a Nationals lineup that leads the Majors by far with a collective .478 wOBA thanks in part to elite RHB such as young Trea Turner.

Potential Value

Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) @ ATL DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,000

He’s been solid throughout most of the year and faces ancient RHP Bartolo Colon tonight.

Longshot

Chris Owings: (ARI) @ WAS DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,300

Worth adding to a small stack of D’Backs righties against Gio Gonzalez.

Outfielders

Mookie Betts: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $5,200 / FD: $3,900

He hasn’t flashed much upside lately, but continues to produce, and Betts’ price tag on FanDuel is a bit of a head scratcher in this matchup. The Red Sox host a RHP in Kevin Gausman, who has really struggled at Fenway over the past few seasons and is currently sporting the second-worst ERA (7.50) along with a 6.07 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 ratio through 6 starts this year. Betts happens to be 10-for-23 with 3 HR in his career against Gausman and coincidentally enough has demolished Orioles pitching for the most part in his career.

Lorenzo Cain: (KC) vs. CWS DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,500

While he’s been cold lately and the Royals are struggling to score runs as a unit so far this year, Cain and his teammates face such a vulnerable pitcher tonight that they’re very much worth considering as a stack. White Sox RHP Mike Pelfrey has been touched up for 5 ER on 10 hits with 5 walks and just 3 K’s over two starts this season and sports a 65-92 record with a 4.57 ERA throughout his career. Current Royals are batting .395 (49-for-124) and Cain is 8-for-16 off Pelfrey, while he’s been much more comfortable with a .341 batting average and .858 OPS at home this season.

Potential Values

Andrew Benintendi: (BOS) vs. BAL DK: $3,800 / FD: $4,100
Carlos Gomez: (TEX) @ HOU DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,400
Gregory Polanco: (PIT) @ CIN DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,200

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