When: Friday, May 5, 2017
Where: Churchill Downs
Time: 6:12 p.m. EST post time
- #4 Paradise Woods (5-2)
- #10 Miss Sky Warrior (9-2)
- #13 Abel Tasman (5-1)
- #14 Salty (6-1)
- #2 Lockdown (20-1)
- #11 Tequilita (20-1)
With torrential rains in the forecast throughout Friday, the 143rd running of the Kentucky Oaks could be a handicapper's nightmare or lead to a dream score!
Santa Anita Oak's winner & Kentucky Oaks favorite #4 Paradise Woods is likely to be the early speed even on an expected off track. Paradise opened eyes around the horse world when she won the SA Oaks by a whopping 11 lengths.
#10 Miss Sky Warrior enters fresh off a 13 length win in the Gazelle and is unbeaten in her last five starts.
HOF Trainer Bob Baffert sends out #13 Abel Tasman who was beaten soundly by Miss Sky Warrior in the SA Oaks, but I fully expect to rebound in the Oaks.
Trainer Mark Casse will be seeking Oaks/Derby Double glory as he sends out #14 Salty from the extreme outside coupled with Kentucky Derby contender Classic Empire who also drew post #14 on Saturday.
In races like this on muddy tracks, I often feel looking for value on longshots who can return big on your race investments is the way to go. Therefore, here are my two favorite longshot plays: #2 Lockdown & #11 Tequilita.
Lockdown, who is sent out by highly respected NY trainer Bill Mott, finished a disappointing 13 lengths behind rival Miss Sky Warrior in the Gazelle. However, since then her morning works have been eye-catching fast, and she is someone I feel could score here in the expected slop. Drawing an inside post, I don't think will hinder her too much as she can tuck in nicely saving ground behind the hot pace up top, leaving her squarely in place to hit the board at a very big price.
Tequilita turned in a bad performance in the Gulfstream Park Oaks finishing behind rival and eventual winner Salty. She finished well down the stretch and passed several horses in fine fashion. In a race where there could be a hotly contested pace up front this closer could be flying late if she takes to the muddy track.
My $$$ Plays
WIN/PLACE PLAYS: #2 Lockdown & #11 Tequilita
EXACTA BOX: 2-4-10-11-13
TRIFECTA BOX: 2-4-10-11-13
$$$ Exacta P/W: 4/2,10,11,12,13,14
SMALLER Exacta P/W: 2,11/2.4,10,11,12,13,14
$$$ Trifecta P/W: 4 /10, 13/ 2,7,10,11,13,14
SMALLER Trifecta P/W: 2,11/2,4,10,11/2,4,7,10,11,12,13
OAKS/DERBY DOUBLES: 4,2,11/ 2, 8, 11,15,17,19