Plays of the Day
Value: Dee Gordon is 7-for-15 with 4 SB to flash his excellent upside over his last 4 appearances and is frankly under priced as the best thief on the base paths you can find. Tonight he’ll have a great chance to reach against vulnerable RHP Rafael Montero, and should be able to steal off the converted reliever and backup catcher Rene Rivera.
Fade: Stephen Strasburg has already limited the Phillies offense twice this year, but didn’t flash too much upside with a combined 16 K’s and 5 ER allowed over 14 IP in those contests. His general lack of upside, combined with his ridiculous injury history makes him worth fading tonight.
Team Target Stacks
Nationals: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Matt Wieters
Orioles: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones
Marlins: Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Giancarlo Stanton
Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock
Potential rain out in Pittsburgh tonight. Strong chance of delays in New York (Mets) and possible delays in Atlanta and Philadelphia.
Dallas Keuchel: (HOU) @ LAA DK: $10,400/FD: $10,700
The Astros lefty is back in the mix for CY Young consideration through the first month of the season with a pristine 1.21 ERA due in part to an excellent 62.8% Ground Ball Rate through 6 outings this season. He’s 7-2 with a 2.91 ERA and .241 BAA over his last 10 starts against an Angels team that is ranked 25th in collective wOBA (.296) so far this year and offers very little in terms of dangerous hitters outside of Mike Trout. While he’s been better at home in the past, Keuchel is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA over 2 road starts this year and he should do just fine in the spacious confines of Angels Stadium.
Kenta Maeda: (LAD) @ SD DK: $9,800/FD: $8,400
It’s hard to go wrong with a heavily favored pitcher at spacious Petco Park and Maeda is probably in line to earn a win with a Quality Start against the lowly Padres. San Diego sends mediocre RHP Jhoulys Chacin to the bump, which is part of the reason why the Dodgers (-155) are road favorites and Maeda is certainly capable of containing an offense that ranks 29th in collective batting average (.221) and 28th in wOBA (.288) so far this year. The Padres are also sporting the third-highest K-Rate (24.9%) in the Majors thus far and current Pads have 15 K’s compared to just 11 hits over 50 career plate appearances against the Dodgers hurler.
Eduardo Rodriguez: (BOS) @ MIN DK: $7,600 / FD: $7,900
While the matchup may not look ideal for Rodriguez on paper tonight, he’s coming off a great start against a Cubs team that can mash against lefties and the Twins are hardly a more formidable challenge. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are both very dangerous righties, but overall the Twins are sporting a below average .293 wOBA with a very low .337 slugging percentage when facing LHP this year. Rodriguez is sporting a career-high 11.96 K/9 ratio and a 2.70 ERA despite giving up way too many fly balls (26% Ground Ball Rate), because his deceptive delivery allows him to keep hitters off balance and the spacious confines of Minnesota’s Target Field.
Danny Salazar: (CLE) @ KC DK: $10,000/FD: $10,200
Salazar is a flamethrower and that gives him fantastic upside, as he’s sporting a league-best 13.03 K/9 ratio through 5 starts this season. He’s more of a GPP play as indicated by his 4.34 ERA and inconsistent results last season, but Salazar seems more comfortable at home with a .159 BAA and 34% K-Rate this year. Tonight he’ll face a Royals team that’s scored the fewest runs (75) in the Majors by far and is dead last in batting average (.214) as well so far this season, while current Royals are a combined 48-for-203 (.236) with 54 K’s in their careers against Salazar.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) @ NYM DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,800
Realmuto is one of several dangerous power hitters in Miami’s lineup and tonight the Fish could be all over RHP Rafael Montero, who posted an 8.05 ERA with a 22.2% HR/FB Ratio over 9 appearances last year and is sporting a 9.45 ERA over 6 relief appearances this year, which is frankly hard to do when you inherit runners. Montero has been far more vulnerable in RvR matchups this year while allowing RHB to go 11-for-21 (.524) with five walks and Realmuto is also doing better in RvR matchups with a .324 batting average against righties this season.
Caleb Joseph: (BAL) vs. CWS DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,400
Still starting for the injured Welington Castillo and providing modest production at the back end of an elite Orioles lineup.
Matt Wieters: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
Will definitely be worth a look if he’s in the lineup tonight against rookie RHP Nick Pivetta.
Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,100
Tonight we have a 24-year-old graduate of New Mexico Junior College making his second career start against the hottest lineup in the Majors. Nick Pivetta held the Dodgers to just 2 ER, but coughed up 9 hits over just 5 innings and clearly looks vulnerable, which makes sense considering he posted a modest 3.86 ERA at the AA level last season. Pivetta was worse in RvR matchups during his Minor League career and Zimmerman is one of the hottest righties in the game with a .488/.511/.1.024 slash line and a whopping 17 RBIs over his last 10 appearances.
Adrian Gonzalez: (LAD) @ SD DK: $3,800 / FD: $2,400
He has good splits against RHP Jhoulys Chacin and is quite familiar with the confines of Petco Park.
Hanley Ramirez: (BOS) @ MIN DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,800
Still too cheap on FanDuel, HanRam faces a RHP in Phil Hughes tonight who pounds the strike zone to a fault.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) @ NYM DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,400
If you’re willing to stack Marlins against Montero, Gordon has to be included, but even if you’re not trying to target an N.L. East game played in cold, rainy New York, you can consider the speedy leadoff man. He’s 7-for-15 with 4 SB to flash his excellent upside over his last 4 appearances and is frankly under priced as the best thief on the base paths you can find. Tonight he’ll have a great chance to reach against vulnerable RHP Rafael Montero, and should be able to steal off the converted reliever and backup catcher Rene Rivera.
Jason Kipnis: (CLE) @ KC DK: $4,100 / FD: $2,800
Intriguing addition to an Indians stack against struggling RHP Jason Hammel.
Rougned Odor: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,000
He’s starting to heat up against and has good career splits against Mariners RHP Yovani Gallardo.
Jake Lamb: (ARI) @ COL DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,600
Rockies RHP German Marquez just pitched well at Chase Field against this very same D’Backs lineup, but shutting them down at Coors is an entirely different proposition. Because the young righty struggled with a 4.42 ERA and .316 BAA against LHB at the minor league level two years ago and has allowed lefties to go 9-for-25 with 2 XBH (.500 slugging percentage) so far this year, Lamb is one of the clear-cut candidates to tag him at the ballpark with the highest Run Factor in the Majors. You can also consider David Peralta and of course, Paul Goldscmidt and A.J. Pollock, the obvious candidates for any Diamondbacks stack.
Travis Shaw: (MIL) @ PIT DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,700
He was very productive again last night and will be worth a look against RHP Chad Kuhl if the game in Pittsburgh gets played.
Manny Machado: (BAL) vs. CWS DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,600
He’s quite cheap on FanDuel ahead of a plus matchup at home against straightforward RHP Miguel Gonzalez
Trea Turner: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,200
Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is honestly in over his head in facing a Nationals team that leads the Majors in collective batting average (.289) and wOBA (.366) and has a lineup chalk full of elite bats such as Turner. The young phenom is slashing .375/.412/.667 with 7 XBH, 2 HR and 3 SB over his last 10 appearances and he’s also driven in 11 runs as part of a fantastic Nationals stack. Even with Bryce Harper (groin) potentially out, Washington should be all over this rookie RHP on the road and Turner is bound to flash his upside one way or another.
Elvis Andrus: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
Good bet for some production against ground-ball heavy RHP Yovani Gallardo.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ KC DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,100
Right behind Turner as the best overall SS option tonight.
Jay Bruce: (NYM) vs. MIA DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,900
The Mets offense is in a collective nosedive but Bruce is keeping it afloat with a .324/.395/.658 slash line over his last 9 appearances. He’s launched 3 homers with 4 doubles during that span and is always dangerous with the platoon advantage in the right matchup. Tonight the Mets will host a RHP in Tom Koehler, who is sporting a rough 5.40 ERA with a 6.40 FIP and 25% HR/FB ratio so far this year and is giving up an absurd 5.00 HR/9 ratio with an 11.38 FIP when facing lefties, so Bruce clearly has some upside against a pitcher that he’s hit (4-for-8, double, HR) in the past.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. TEX DK: $4,100 / FD: $4,300
Even though he’s facing a true ace tonight in Yu Darvish, it’s really hard to bet against Cruz right now, especially at that modest price tag on DK. He’s sporting a .457/.528/1.348 slash line during his current 13-game hitting streak and has homered 5 times during that span. Cruz may be 0-for-6 in a limited sample of at-bats against Darvish, but the Rangers RHP has shown cracks in his armor over the last couple of years and Cruz is very much capable of coming through to burn his former team.