Daily Dr. Roto — May 5, 2017
Home Run Totals: Over/Under
It is about a month into the Fantasy Baseball season, and a handful of players have eight or more home runs at this point. Let’s take a look at which guys will stay strong and hit over 30 HR on the season and which ones will fall just under.
*current (HR) total in parentheses
Aaron Judge (13) — Judge has gotten off to an amazing start this year. Think of him as the Yankees version of Giancarlo Stanton. He should hit 30+ easily, although I can see his average dipping into the .260-.270 range.
Eric Thames (11) — Thames has slowed down from his incredible start, but I see him breaking 30 HR without any problem. Hitting between Villar and Braun has given Thames tons of fastballs to hit.
Ryan Zimmerman (11) — Zimmerman has to be the comeback player of the year-- maybe of the decade!! I don’t think he will hit 30 HR, but 20-25 is a definite possibility.
Freddie Freeman (10) — I think Freeman is well on his way to an MVP-type season. 30 HR might be a reach for him, but if the new park in Atlanta plays well in the summer, it’s a possibility.
Khris Davis (10) — Davis might just be the best power hitter you don’t pay attention to because his games are usually over past 1:00 AM EST. He mashes the ball, and 40 HR is a definite goal for him.
Jay Bruce (9) — Bruce always hits about 30 HR, but he does it with a poor batting average. It looks like the Mets are stuck with him for now, but if he keeps hitting, I think they will try to move him and his contract before the trading deadline.
Marwin Gonzalez (9) — Really? 9 HR already from….Marwin Gonzalez??? I say he hits 20 because Minute Maid Park is a launching pad not because he is a big time power source.
Bryce Harper (9) — So long as he stays healthy, there is no better lock to hit 30+ than Bryce Harper. He is dealing with a groin injury currently, so keep your fingers crossed that he does not go on the 10-day DL.
Joey Gallo (9) — Gallo might only be hitting .215, but he can mash the ball when he gets his pitch. The Rangers are playing without 3B Adrian Beltre, so it will be interesting to see if Gallo continues to get regular playing time when Beltre returns. If he is a full-time player, 30 HR should be a no brainer.
Miguel Sano (8) — We know he has light-tower power, but can he hit over .250? So far, Sano is hitting .300, but I doubt he keeps it up. As for 30+ HR — it’s a lock.
Adam Duvall (8) — He is the NL version of Miguel Sano except for the fact that he plays in the Great American Small Park. A shoo-in for 30+ HR.
Mike Trout (8) — Give him time and Trout will jump a bunch of players on this list. He never seems to hit HRs in bunches, but he will get his 40 by season’s end.
Scott Schebler (8) — I have been incredibly impressed with Schebler this season, and I have said that I would pick him up if he is available on your league’s waiver wire. I don’t think he will be able to keep this power surge going, but he should be good for 20-25 HR if he plays every day.
Marcell Ozuna (8) — Ozuna has always had the talent, but now he seems to be putting it together consistently. I would like to see Yelich and Stanton get hot soon for the Marlins; that would ensure Ozuna gets great pitches to hit.
Mark Reynolds (8) — Reynolds will slow down and lose playing time as soon as OF David Dahl returns. Right now, my best guess is a June 1 return for Dahl, so Reynolds owners should enjoy the ride (and his stats) until then.