When: Saturday, May 6, 2017
Where: Churchill Downs
Time: 6:34 p.m. EST post time
- #17 Irish War Cry (6-1)
- #15 McCracken (5-1)
- #8 Hence (15-1)
- #16 Tapwrit (15-1)
- #10 Gunnevera (15-1)
- #2 Thunder Snow (20-1)
- #19 Practical Joke (20-1)
As of publication, the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby looks like it will be run on a sloppy off track. As we often see on these types of track conditions---handicapping formulas fly out the window. With expected inclement weather, I see value in tossing both the morning line favorite #14 Classic Empire & the 2nd choice #5 Always Dreaming from any top exotic tickets. I know this could come back to haunt me as we have seen the post time favorite win the Derby for four straight years. I just can't honestly look myself in the mirror if I allow these two to burn my money at short prices on such an unpredictable surface.
My top choices
#17 Irish War Cry: Fresh off his Wood Memorial victory looks to be in prime form for trainer Graham Motion who sent out 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.
#15 McCracken: 4-for-5 lifetime, only missing the winner's circle in the Blue Grass finishing 3rd behind one of my favorite longshots #19 Practical Joke. I think we can toss that effort as it was his first coming off the shelf with an ankle injury. His morning workouts have been stellar & it wouldn't shock me at all to see him go off as the post-time favorite.
#8 Hence: May be a huge sneaky play a big price as he has won on a wet track and comes in fresh off his Sunland Derby victory. This guy has been lights out in his morning works, and his inclusion here screams value.
#16 Tapwrit: A horse who gets no respect as he often is in the shadow of his stablemate, #5 Always Dreaming who receives all the accolades. If we toss his 5th place finish in the Blue Grass we see a horse who's mom Tapit loved wet tracks. At most likely 20-1 or higher, this horse could fill exotics nicely if he hits the board.
#10 Gunnevera: A deep closer who could be able to pick up the pieces if we see a huge speed meltdown on the front end. Javier Castellano could have this boy---who has hit the board in 7 out of 9 career starts-- flying late if he can find a lane and the pieces up top fall apart.
My two favorite longshot plays
- #2 Thunder Snow
- #19 Practical Joke
#2 Thunder Snow: Won the U.A.E Derby in the mud, do we need we say more? Now at odds of 20-1, this could finally be the 1st time we see Dubai find the winners circle in the Derby.
#19 Practical Joke: Has been no less than 3rd in 6 straight races and comes in solid off his 2nd place finish in the Bluegrass. Many will question if he has distance limitations, but I have faith in trainer Chad Brown having this consistent colt in top form even from the bad post position. I envision seeing upwards of 40-1 as too much value for me to pass up on.
My $$$ Plays
WIN/PLACE/SHOW PLAYS: #2 Thunder Snow & #19 Practical Joke
EXACTA BOX: 2-8-15-16-17
$$$ Exacta P/W: 15,17/8,10,15,16,17,19
SMALLER Exacta P/W: 15,17/2,5,8,10,15,6,17,19
SMALLER Exacta P/W: 2,19/2,5,8,10,15,16,17,19
$$$ Trifecta P/W: 15,17 /15,17/ 2,5,8,10,14,15,16,17,18,19
SMALLER Trifecta P/W: 2,19/2,19/5,8,10,14,15,16,17,18
FRANKIE'S PAY OFF THE MORTGAGE SUPERFECTA
Wheel to Save $
1st - 17
2nd - 15
3rd - 8, 10, 2, 19
4th - 8, 10, 2, 19
Or Box all 6 and go big!
Box - 2, 8, 10, 15, 17, 19