Plays of the Day
Value: Rangers rookie Chase De Jong is sporting an 11.05 ERA with a 2.45 HR/9 ratio and 6.14 BB/9 ratio over 3 MLB appearances and now he faces a Rangers lineup that can really mash and includes some dangerous LHB such as Rougned Odor. The 2B is breaking out of a slump with homers in consecutive games and a two-hit performance prior to that, while he carries plenty of upside as part of a Texas stack.
Fade: Lance McCullers has plenty of upside and he’s a relative value on FanDuel, but it’s hard to justify paying $2K more than any other SP on DK for an inconsistent young arm. Even though he’s facing a relatively weak Angels lineup, the Halos rarely strike out, limiting his potential upside.
Team Target Stacks
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings
Orioles: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones
Rangers: Carlos Gomez, Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo
Astros: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Brian McCann
Chance of delays in New York (Mets), Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Atlanta tonight.
Gerrit Cole: (PIT) vs. MIL DK: $9,500/FD: $9,600
The Pirates may have an ace once again now that Cole is regaining his rhythm and dominating opposing lineups with his heater. He’s 1-3 with an unlucky 3.50 ERA despite posting a solid 1.14 WHIP with a .277 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are up from last year with an 8.50 K/9 ratio. Tonight he faces a Brewers team that’s sporting the second-highest K-Rate (25.2%) after posting the highest K-Rate (25.5%) in the Majors last year and current only Ryan Braun has really faced Cole of any Brewers batter. Braun has been on the shelf with an arm issue anyways, which significantly diminishes the pop in that lineup.
Brandon McCarthy: (LAD) @ SD DK: $9,400/FD: $8,000
Picking on the Padres is all too easy, especially when they’re at home at the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the Majors. McCarthy has really enjoyed Petco Park with a 3-0 record, 3.32 ERA and .217 BAA over his last 3 appearances and he held the Padres to 2 ER over 6 strong innings to earn a win at Dodger Stadium earlier this season. The massive confines at Petco Park clearly help McCarthy because he sports a low 43.1% Ground Ball Rate throughout his career, and San Diego’s lineup continues to struggle in terms of batting average and definitely in terms of power with the third-lowest wOBA (.287) in the Majors this year.
Mike Leake: (STL) @ ATL DK: $8,200 / FD: $8,700
Leake is simply a rock for your cash game lineups right now, as he hardly allows earned runs and certainly isn’t likely to collapse given his approach on the hill. He’s sporting a 1.35 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with a 1.99 FIP on the year. Leake has yet to give up a homer this year and he’s sporting a career-best 55% Ground Ball Rate thanks in part to the genius pitching staff for the Cardinals, which always seems to get the best out of their arms. Tonight he faces a mediocre Braves lineup that is a collective 21-for-81 with a weak .311 wOBA in their careers against Leake and he matches up well against that lefty-heavy lineup with his ability to jam lefties inside.
Dylan Bundy: (BAL) vs. CWS DK: $8,400/FD: $8,200
Bundy really isn’t a longshot in the sense that he comes with a lot of risk, but rather in the sense that he needs a lot to fall into place to really pay off as a high-upside play. He’s sporting an impressive 1.82 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP despite facing some excellent offensive teams and tonight he faces a weak White Sox lineup, so a Quality Start certainly seems to be in the cards. Yet Bundy’s low 5.67 K/9 ratio limits his upside, so you’ll have to hope for a Win with the Orioles offense potentially pounding rookie RHP Dylan Covey. Baltimore (-180) is heavily favored, so that could certainly be in the cards.
Brian McCann: (HOU) @ LAA DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,200
The Astros could be all over converted reliever J.C. Ramirez tonight and if that’s the case McCann will serve as a great cheap addition to that stack. He’s been hitting for more average than power so far this year and is therefore a pretty solid cash game play with 8 walks and just 7 K’s over his last 10 appearances. Ramirez is giving up a 1.42 HR/9 ratio when facing lefties this year and has posted a similar 1.40 HR/9 ratio throughout his career. And while he’s getting the hang of pitching as a starter, he’s still a reliever by trade and could struggle to navigate this tough lineup multiple times.
Caleb Joseph: (BAL) vs. CWS DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,300
A cheap addition to a potential Orioles stack against rookie RHP Dylan Covey.
Buster Posey: (SF) @ CIN DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,600
Reds southpaw Amir Garrett has been boom or bust this year and if he struggles Posey will almost certainly produce.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ COL DK: $5,300 / FD: $5,300
The D’Backs offense could really roll tonight against a vulnerable LHP in Tyler Anderson, who is sporting the second-highest ERA (7.71) and HR/9 ratio (2.67) in the Majors so far this year. That’s a recipe for disaster when facing a team that led the MLB with a collective .348 wOBA against LHP last year and a player in Goldschmidt who posted the third-best batting average (.352) and fourth-best wOBA (.449) when facing the platoon in 2016. He’s 1-for-3 with 6 walks and 2 SB in his career against Anderson, but the young lefty could be forced to pitch to Goldy with all those other dangerous righties circling around him like vultures.
Matt Carpenter: (STL) @ ATL DK: $3,800 / FD: $4,100
He’s certainly cheap on DK and faces a RHP in Julio Teheran who has struggled in the past against the platoon.
Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,400 / FD: $4,400
One of the hottest hitters in the game this year is worth a look despite facing a formidable RHP in young Vince Velasquez.
Rougned Odor: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
He might’ve posted good numbers in the Minors with a 1.74 ERA over 2 starts in AAA this year, but rookie RHP Chase De Jong posted a 5.67 FIP in those outings and perhaps his luck has run out now that he’s facing the best hitters in the world. He’s sporting an 11.05 ERA with a 2.45 HR/9 ratio and 6.14 BB/9 ratio over 3 MLB appearances and now he faces a Rangers lineup that can really mash and includes some dangerous LHB such as Odor. The 2B is breaking out of a slump with homers in consecutive games and a two-hit performance prior to that, while he carries plenty of upside with 5 XBH, 6 HR and a SB on the year.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) vs. MIL DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,400 as 3B
Still a bargain and a great cash game play against veteran RHP Matt Garza.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) @ NYM DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,500
Still a base-stealing machine and a great value on DK with upside against RHP Robert Gsellman.
Manny Machado: (BAL) vs. CWS DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,800
The Orioles have rediscovered their mojo and their always more dangerous at home, where they led the Majors with 116 home runs last season. Machado is their fearless leader and he has a great chance to produce tonight against rookie RHP Dylan Covey, who has allowed RHB to go 15-for-47 with 3 HR (.530 wOBA) so far this year. Still far too cheap on FanDuel, Manny is more than capable of tagging Covey, as he’s sporting a .365 wOBA at home against RHP and is really coming around with a .289 batting average, 9 RBIs and 9 runs scored over his last 9 appearances.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ DET DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,000 as 1B
One of few A’s with upside in a good matchup against fading RHP Jordan Zimmerman.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) vs. NYY DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,400
Always a very high-upside option when the Cubs face a LH starter.
Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. TEX DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,000
The Mariners are a pretty solid stack to consider tonight against familiar for Martin Perez and Segura is the spark for their offense right now with a .391 batting average, a HR and 2 SB over his last 5 appearances, producing double-digit FPs in his last 4 outings. He’s simply too cheap on DK tonight for a SS with tremendous upside in the right matchup and he’s been very comfortable with a .381 batting average, .445 wOBA and 201 wRC+ at home this season. So look for him to get things started against a mediocre southpaw starter.
Elvis Andrus: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,200
Should be at the center of any rallies for the Rangers against De Jong.
Chris Owings: (ARI) @ COL DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,100
Could serve as a great addition to a D’Backs stack against LHP Tyler Anderson.
Aaron Judge: (NYY) @ CHC DK: $4,500 / FD: $4,400
Judge is proving to be more than just a power hitter with 7 hits over his last 3 appearances, but of course his ability to hit home runs makes him most attractive in DFS contests. Considering he’s sporting a .429 batting average and absurd .643 ISO mark with a .549 wOBA against the platoon this year, Judge is a premier option to use against Cubs veteran southpaw Brett Anderson. While Anderson has shown some improvement in terms of his vulnerability to the long ball, he’s still sporting a 14.3% HR/FB ratio with a 6.23 ERA over 5 appearances and has given up 2 HR along with 8 XBH over 87 at-bats against RHB this season.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. TEX DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,600
He faced an elite RHP last night in Yu Darvish and STILL managed to log two more hits, raising his average to .330 on the year and extending his hitting streak to 14 games. Now Cruz draws a much easier matchup with the platoon advantage against LHP Martin Perez. The Rangers southpaw is sporting a 4.26 ERA and 4.81 FIP which is very consistent with his career numbers and while he isn’t generally homer-prone, he’s allowed Cruz to go 6-for-12 with 3 homers in his career. Perez is also walking a ton of batters with a 5.40 BB/9 ratio over 6 starts this season and Cruz has been locked in with a .459 batting average and 5 homers over his last 10 appearances, yet his price tag on DK hasn’t caught up to his rampant production.