Plays of the Day
Value: Angels RHP Alex Meyer is sporting a 9.39 ERA with a .400 BABIP so far this year and he’s allowed lefties to post a .415 wOBA with a 2.09 WHIP throughout his career, so you can trust the switch-hitting Jed Lowrie to produce, if not flash more upside after homering twice last night. He’s slashing .324/.390/.595 over his last 10 appearances and is an accomplished hitter.
Fade: Justin Verlander is starting to regain his mojo after a rough couple of starts, but tonight he faces an elite Diamondbacks lineup at Chase Field, where they tend to make even the best starting pitchers look average.
Team Target Stacks
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Lind
Yankees: Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge
Astros: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
Athletics: Jed Lowrie, Ryon Healy, Yonder Alonso, Trevor Plouffe
Chance of delays in Cincy tonight. Strong winds blowing OUT in Oakland.
Max Scherzer: (WAS) @ BAL DK: $11,800/FD: $11,600
There are few pitchers as tough to time up and even make contact against than Scherzer, who is maintain his great reputation for strikeouts with an 11.29 K/9 ratio so far this season. He’s also sporting a sparkling 0.91 WHIP and has posted a Quality Start in 5 of his 6 appearances this year. Tonight, Scherzer faces an Orioles lineup that can mash, but can also strike out a lot with a 22.4% K-Rate this year after posting the ninth-highest K-Rate (21.7%) last season. Current O’s are a combined 32-for-143 (.224) with an astonishing 51 K’s to post a 35.6% K-Rate in their careers against Scherzer, who will be focused in the second game of this Beltway Series.
Robbie Ray: (ARI) vs. DET DK: $9,200/FD: $8,600
Ray has been as close to perfection as the D’Backs could hope this season and he just managed to limit the league-leading Nationals lineup to 2 ER on 4 hits in his last outing. The lefty also struck out 10 in that contest to raise his K/9 ratio to a career high 12.14 through 6 starts. Detroit is ranked 25th in collective batting average (.215) with the eighth-highest K-Rate (23.6%) against LHP this season and almost all of the Tigers batters will have the disadvantage of facing Ray for the first time.
Matt Andriese: (TB) vs. KC DK: $7,900 / FD: $7,400
Not only does Andriese face a Royals team that is dead last in run scored (89) by far this year and is sporting a collective .213 batting average, but he has a great chance to earn plenty of run support with the Royals sending vulnerable veteran RHP Chris Young to the mound. Andriese was excellent in his last outing with 8 K’s and 5 hits allowed over 7 scoreless innings to beat the Marlins and he’s been solid all year with a 3.09 ERA and 7.71 K/9 ratio over 6 outings. While he’s vulnerable to the long ball, Tropican Field is pretty spacious and the Royals are also second-to last in homers (28) this year.
Jeff Samardzija: (SF) @ NYM DK: $9,400/FD: $8,700
After dominating the Dodgers in his last outing, The Shark is poised to enter this plus matchup brimming with confidence. His success was partially due to an aggressive approach, as he threw 70 of his 101 pitches for strikes in his last outing, and he should be able to attack a Mets lineup that’s weakened by the absence of Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubel Cabrera and Travis d’Arnaud right now. Current Mets are batting a collective .210 (26-for-100) with 21 K’s in their careers against Samardzija and he’s a very appealing option due to his strikeout potential.
Gary Sanchez: (NYY) @ CIN DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,200
The rich get richer, as the league-leading Yankees got one of the best offensive catchers in the game back in their lineup and Sanchez has immediately begun producing. He’s 6-for-8 with 4 walks and 3 RBIs over his last 3 appearances to serve as a ridiculous on-base machine during that span and tonight he faces a RHP in Tim Adleman, who is sporting a 4.22 ERA with a 2.11 HR/9 ratio so far this year. Adleman is giving up a 41.9% Hard Contact Rate and Sanchez posted a .451 wOBA against RHP last year, so he’s a great value on FD and could be worth paying up for on DK tonight.
Brian McCann: (HOU) vs. ATL DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,300
Bartolo Colon has been lit up like a piñata this year and McCann is doing a good job of hitting for average as well as power.
Sandy Leon: (BOS) @ MIL DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,700
He’s suddenly crushing the ball again and has the platoon advantage against vulnerable RHP Wily Peralta.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) @ MIL DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,500
He’s a startlingly bargain on DK tonight and could serve as a great addition to a Red Sox stack, even if Moreland might take a back seat to Hanley Ramirez at similar price tags on FanDuel. Yet he has the platoon advantage against Wily Peralta, who has allowed lefties to go 18-for-57 (.343) with 5 doubles and 3 homers to post a .441 wOBA so far this season. Peralta posted the third-highest HR/FB ratio (17.1%) overall last year and Moreland happens to be 2-for-3 with a HR in a limited sample against Peralta.
Yonder Alonso: (OAK) vs. LAA DK: $2,900 / FD: $3,500
Despite laying a goose egg last night, Alonso is a good value on DK ahead of a plus matchup against RHP Alex Meyer.
Cody Bellinger: (LAD) vs. PIT DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,500
Now eligible at 1B on both main DFS sites and one of the hottest young hitters in the game.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) vs. LAA DK: $2,800 / FD: $2,300
Here’s an extreme value to consider tonight as part of what could be a very cheap stack of Athletics. Angels RHP Alex Meyer is sporting a 9.39 ERA with a .400 BABIP so far this year and he’s allowed lefties to post a .415 wOBA with a 2.09 WHIP throughout his career, so you can trust the switch-hitting Lowrie to produce, if not flash more upside after homering twice last night. He’s slashing .324/.390/.595 over his last 10 appearances and is an accomplished hitter, which makes it strange to see him priced near the minimum on FanDuel.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. STL DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400
Definitely worth a look against struggling veteran RHP Adam Wainwright.
Daniel Murphy: (WAS) @ BAL DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,200
Worth paying up for as part of a juicy stack against RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
Miguel Sano: (MIN) vs. CWS DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,600
One of the hottest power hitters in the game is clearly a great candidate to serve as part of a stack against likely the most vulnerable SP on the slate. Mike Pelfrey is sporting a 5.02 ERA and keeping the ball in the yard through 3 starts despite posting a 25% HR/FB ratio at the AAA level and a 1.13 HR/9 ratio during his last MLB campaign. Even if he doesn’t hit one out, Sano is smoking the ball when he makes contact and Pelfrey boasts a pitiful 6.0% Swinging Strike Rate throughout his career. Sano also happens to be 3-for-4 with a double and HR in his career against Pelfrey.
Josh Harrison: (PIT) @ LAD DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,300
He’ll have the platoon advantage against young LHP Julio Urias and is still too cheap on DK.
Kris Bryant: (CHC) @ COL DK: $5,500 / FD: $5,100
Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is pitching well this year, but Bryant is certainly capable of crushing a lefty at Coors Field.
Carlos Correa: (HOU) vs. ATL DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,700
The Astros should be all over 43-year-old RHP Bartolo Colon, who is 1-3 with a 6.27 ERA and has given up 15 ER on 28 hits over his last 3 appearances. While Correa isn’t having the same type of season as he did as a rookie, he’s sporting a .341 batting average with 6 doubles and a HR over his last 10 appearances and matches up well against the ancient pitcher. Correa is hitting .284 with a .358 wOBA against righties while struggling against lefties this year and he should produce against Colon.
Brad Miller: (TB) vs. KC DK: $3,700 as 2B / FD: $2,600
He’s struggling lately, but could tee off on homer-prone RHP Chris Young.
Jean Segura: (SEA) @ PHI DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,100
Bet against Segura at your own risk.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) @ BAL DK: $5,200 / FD: $5,000
He returned to the Nationals lineup last night and promptly homered to get right back to making his case for another N.L. MVP. Now Harper draws a dream matchup against RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, who allowed LHB to post a .378 wOBA with a 1.53 HR/9 ratio against the platoon last season. Jimenez is sporting a 9.39 ERA with a .313 BAA over a limited sample at Camden Yards this year and that is a ballpark with a very high HR Factor for lefties. Harper is sporting a .493 wOBA with a 1.218 OPS and 10 homers off RHP this year and he could tee off on Jimenez.
Christian Yelich: (MIA) vs. STL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,600
Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright has had some success in the past against the Marlins, but I wouldn’t be on the 35-year-old to come through even at massive Marlines Park. He’s sporting a 6.30 ERA with a ridiculous .446 BABIP and that’s partially due to the fact that lefties are posting a ridiculous 45.8% Hard Contact Rate and 23.1% HR/FB ratio off Waino this season. Yelich is 3-for-6 in a limited sample against the RHP and he’s been reaching base with consistency over his last several appearances.