Daily Dr. Roto — May 9, 2017
All Overvalued Team — AL Pitchers
While admittedly these guys have been tearing it up, I think that they have been playing well above their abilities, so now might be the perfect time to see what you can get for them in a trade. Remember the key to winning a Fantasy Baseball leagues is to buy low and sell high.
Ervin Santana — Santana has been marvelous in six of his seven starts this season. His BABIP is .132, and his ERA is 1.72. I know he’s been great thus far, but is he this good? Well considering he’s left 98% of runners on base, I would say that his ERA is going to spike at some point relatively soon. There is no reason that he couldn’t have an ERA under 3.50, but with a 7.09 K-rate, he is not enough of a power pitcher anymore to get out of trouble. I would certainly trade him now if the opportunity presented itself.
Jason Vargas — I may be in the minority with this one, but I say that it’s time to sell Vargas right now. His K totals are higher than they have ever been (8.36/per 9 IP) and his runners LOB is over 87%. The Royals look terrible at the plate, and I am worried that Vargas won’t be able to win a dozen games. Someone in your league will look at Vargas’ numbers and overpay for them — trade him now.
Derek Holland — Holland’s last good full season was 2013 when he won 10 games for the Rangers. Since that time, he has won 16 games in the majors and had two seasons where his ERA spiked close to 5.00. He is starting off great for the White Sox in 2017, but much to my complete shock the entire Pale Hose team is playing well. Do I expect that to continue? Not at all and I think that once they make a few more trades around the All-Star Break, the team will implode and it will affect Holland significantly. Move him now while the going is good.
Luis Severino — Severino is the prime example of a post-hype sleeper. He is doing this year what many experts (including myself) thought he would do last year. His K/BB rate is exemplary (45:7), and he is looking incredibly confident on the mound. The one hiccup thus far has been his propensity to give up home runs (7 in just under 40 IP), but if he can rectify that he is a star in the making. Only trade him if you can get a ton back.
Hector Santiago — It’s amazing that there are three Minnesota Twins on this list. Santiago is another guy who I trust as far as I can throw him. Right now, I think the words “Code Red” are the only ones that come to mind when I consider rostering him. He’s stranded over 82% of runners on base (not as high as Santana but close) and he barely averages over 6 Ks per game. He is a soft-tossing LHP who will come back to reality soon. You can’t handle the truth? Sorry about that, but your Doctor should never lie to you.
Brandon Kintzler — Kintzler is hard to predict because he has never really been much of a strikeout pitcher. In fact, last year he only had 35 Ks in 54 IP which is an extremely low number for a closer. However, Kintzler does two things very well: 1) He rarely walks anyone. Last year he had only eight walks allowed and this year he has five (a much higher rate than last year but he still shows good control). 2) He loves getting the ball in late inning pressure situations and has shown that he can handle the job (only one blown save this year and only three in 2016). Kintzler is not a mirage, and if you need saves, you might be able to strike a deal for him soon.
Brad Brach — Brach is in the right place at the right time for Fantasy owners in 2017. No one could have predicted that Zach Britton would be having so many arm issues, and Brach has been right there to pick up the pieces and close out games for the O’s. He is incredibly overvalued right now as some Fantasy owners will think that Britton might not be back anytime soon. Supposedly, there is nothing structurally wrong with Britton, and he should be back around Memorial Day. Trade Brach now before his value decreases.