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Scouting The MLB DFS - Thursday, May 11

Cash in on tonight's full slate of MLB action with our top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: White Sox LHP Derek Holland is strangely the cheapest SP on the board on DK tonight despite posting a 2.02 ERA with a sparkling .189 BAA over his first 6 starts this year. He limited the Twins to 2 ER in their last meeting and could face that lineup without lefty-killer Brian Dozier (ankle) tonight.

Fade: Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are both elite lefties with upside in the any matchup, but they face a stingy RHP tonight in Dylan Bundy and I trust the O’s starter to keep them in the yard.

Team Target Stacks

Rockies: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond

Giants: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Gorkys Hernandez

Orioles: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Seth Smith

Rangers: Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara Elvis Andrus

Tigers: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Weather Report

Rain in Washington could lead to delays or postponement.


Pitchers

Two Studs

Zack Greinke: (ARI) vs. PIT DK: $10,800/FD: $10,200

He seems to have revitalized his career with a new approach and he’s coming off an excellent outing with 13 ground ball outs to navigate the tough conditions at Coors Field. Now he’ll return home to face a weakened Pirates lineup that is reeling due to the lengthy suspension of Starling Marte and is sporting the fifth-lowest collective batting average (.231) with a 21.7% K-Rate over the last 14 days. Only Andrew McCutchen has positive splits, or even a decent sample size of at-bats, against Greinke amongst the Pirates, and he’s a shell of his former self, so feel free to use the D’Backs RHP as a home favorite.

Michael Pineda: (NYY) vs. HOU DK: $9,300/FD: $8,600

It’s hard to go wrong with either pitcher at Yankee Stadium tonight considering Dallas Keuchel’s history against he lefty-heavy Yankees lineup, but Pineda is in the midst of such a strong season that he seems a bit more appealing at a lower price tag. The talented young RHP has always just needed to concentrate and harness that talent and he’s figuring it out with a 3.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a career-best 11.16 K/9 ratio through 6 starts this season. He’s turned up his game in the Bronx with a 1.35 ERA and .178 ERA to go 3-0 at home and faces an Astros lineup that’s underperforming thus far.

Potential Value

Derek Holland: (CWS) vs. MIN DK: $5,200/FD: $7,900

Holland is strangely the cheapest SP on the board on DK tonight despite posting a 2.02 ERA with a sparkling .189 BAA over his first 6 starts this year. Perhaps it’s the dangers of facing a Twins lineup that contains righthanded sluggers Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, but current Twins are just 19-for-78 (.244) with 16 K’s and 2 HR in their careers against Holland. He’s already faced Minnesota and limited them to 2 ER on 4 hits and he could see a boost if Dozier remains inactive with an ankle injury.

Longshot

Gerrit Cole: (PIT) @ ARI DK: $9,000/FD: $8,700

Cole isn’t a longshot because of any questions about his talent or how he’s pitching this year, but because of the circumstances. He’ll face an elite D’Backs lineup at hitter-friendly Chase Field and the Pirates struggling offense will have a tough time scratching out runs against Zack Greinke, so a win seems unlikely for the unlucky 1-3 pitcher. Yet Cole boasts a 1.05 WHIP and 8.79 K/9 ratio on the year and he’s been able to limit the D’Backs, including star Paul Goldschmidt, who is a measly 1-for-11 with 3 K’s in his career against Cole.

Batters

Catchers

Buster Posey: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,900

Somehow not even the most expensive catcher of the slate on DK, Posey is almost a surefire bet for production against showered 40-year-old RHP Bronson Arroyo. The Reds veteran is sporting a 6.53 ERA with a 2.08 HR/9 ratio on the year and he’s been far worse in RvR matchups, as RHB are hitting .306 with a .421 wOBA against him this year. Posey happens to be 7-for-15 with 2 doubles and a HR in his career against Arroyo and he’s been money at home while posting a .362/.439/.532 slash line overall this season.

Potential Value

Dustin Garneau: (COL) vs. LAD DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,100

Just about the cheapest likely starter you can find at Coors tonight.

Longshot

Alex Avila: (DET) @ LAA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,900

Will have the platoon advantage against converted reliever J.C. Ramirez.

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera: (DET) @ LAA DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,200

A little time on the DL seems to have done Miggy well, as he’s hit safely in 6 of 7 appearances with 2 doubles and a HR since returning to the Tigers lineup. While his production has been consistent, we could see him flash some upside in a plus matchup against RHP J.C. Ramirez tonight. The Angels starter is dancing on the edge after giving up just 1 ER on 8 hits in his last outing and he was more vulnerable in RvR matchups last year with a 1.79 HR/9 ratio and 5.33 FIP when facing RHB.

Potential Value

Brandon Belt: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,200

Worth adding to a Giants stack despite his recent slump.

Longshot

Chris Davis: (BAL) @ WAS DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300

Capable of tagging young Nats RHP A.J. Cole if that game is played tonight.

Second Basemen

DJ LeMahieu: (COL) vs. LAD DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,400

He’s been cold for most of the season along with the rest of the Rockies offense, but they’ve been home long enough that they should be able to produce in such a juicy matchup tonight. Dodgers LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu can’t be trusted in the thin air at Coors and LeMahieu is one of several RHB that excels against the platoon in this lineup, as he’s sporting a .341 batting average with most of his power coming against lefties this year. He posted a .437 wOBA against LHP at home last season and he comes very cheap on FanDuel.

Potential Value

Devon Travis: (TOR) vs. SEA DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,100

He’s turning his season around and faces an inexperienced RHP tonight in Chase De Jong.

Longshot

Joe Panik: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,900

Worth using if you want to go all in on a stack against Arroyo.

Third Basemen

Nolan Arenado: (COL) vs. LAD DK: $5,300 / FD: $4,700

Even before checking his career splits against lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, I had an idea that Arenado’s found success against him in the past and sure enough, he’s 6-for-12 with 2 doubles and 2 HR in his career. Arenado generally crushes southpaws and Ryu leaves the ball up in the zone far too often, which has led to a 2.03 HR/9 ratio over 5 appearances this season. Arenado is 18-for-42 (.450) with an insane 6 homers off lefties this season after posting a .429 wOBA against LHP at home last year.

Potential Value

Eduardo Nunez: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800

Could serve as a great addition to a Giants stack with upside due to his speed.

Longshot

Justin Turner: (LAD) @ COL DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,200

His career splits against LHP Tyler Anderson are impressive and he’s a hot hitter at Coors Field.

Shortstops

Jean Segura: (SEA) @ TOR DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,200

The Mariners dynamic duo serve as a sneaky stack tonight against RHP Marco Estrada, who has been more vulnerable in RvR matchups in the past. That duo of course refers to Nelson Cruz and Segura, who is raking with a .376/.414/.516 slash line to go along with 3 homers and 5 SB on the season. That type of upside has allowed Segura to produce double-digit FPs in 7 straight appearances and he can be trusted tonight with the fast turf at Rogers Centre against a pitcher that depends on getting ground ball outs.

Potential Value

Elvis Andrus: (TEX) vs. SD DK: $4,000/ FD: $3,000

Always a good bet for production when the Rangers host a mediocre pitcher.

Longshot

Christian Arroyo: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,500 as 3B

Should continue to fill in for the injured Brendan Crawford and makes for a value addition to a Giants stack.

Outfielders

Nelson Cruz: (SEA) @ TOR DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,400

He got a day off to rest his 36-year-old frame but Cruz is almost certainly going to be back in the lineup with the DH spot available in Toronto tonight. He faces a RHP in Marco Estrada, who can spin gems on the right days, but has struggled in the past against Seattle and allowed Cruz to go 5-for-10 with a double and HR in their careers. Cruz has been red hot with a .357 batting average during the month of May and he launched 6 homers during a two-week span at the end of April, so he clearly comes with upside in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Shin-Soo Choo: (TEX) vs. SD DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600

There a few great values that could serve as part of stacks tonight against some vulnerable pitchers and Choo is certainly one of them. The Rangers offense has been boom or bust with a 28.6% K-Rate over the last 14 days, but still possesses plenty of upside with players like Choo, who is 6-for-11 with 4 walks, a HR, and 2 SB over his last 4 appearances. Padres RHP Jhoulys Chacin has given up 4 homers to lefties over just 80 at-bats this year and gave up a 1.12 HR/9 ratio with a 35% Hard Contact Rate when facing LHB last season.

Potential Values

Nomar Mazara: (TEX) vs. SD DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,200
Hunter Pence: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,100
Kevin Pillar: (TOR) vs. SEA DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,300

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