Plays of the Day
Value: White Sox RHP Miguel Gonzalez has been solid throughout the first month of the season with a 3.18 ERA and 3.86 FIP, as he’s pounding the strike zone but avoiding hard contact with a career-best 17.1% Line Drive Rate through 6 outings. San Diego’s offensive struggles go without saying, but just to update you, the Padres are 28th in batting average (.219), wOBA (.286) and sporting the third-highest K-Rate (24.5%) so far this season.
Fade: Johnny Cueto will certainly be motivated to dominate his former team tonight, but Cincy is one of the hottest offensive teams in the Majors and Joey Votto leads a tough heart of that lineup, while strong winds blowing out to RF at AT&T Park could facilitate more offense.
Team Target Stacks
Nationas: Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock
Mariners: Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager
Braves: Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers
Rain in Washington could lead to delays or postponement. Strong winds blowing OUT in Colorado, Texas and San Francisco.
Clayton Kershaw: (LAD) @ COL DK: $11,300/FD: $9,800
Kershaw makes his second appearance of the year at Coors Field after disappointing by allowing 4 ER and 3 homers (his worst one-game total in years) in Colorado one month ago. Yet he was 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA and .194 BAA over his previous 4 outings in the thin air and clearly knows how to compensate, so look for him to make the proper adjustments tonight. Kershaw’s as cheap as he’s ever been on FanDuel and makes for a premier cash game play on that site despite the tough venue.
Rick Porcello: (BOS) vs. TB DK: $9,700/FD: $9,500
Do you roll with Johnny Cueto against his former team, or Clayton Kershaw at Coors tonight? Maybe you don’t go with either ace at their price difference on DK, instead opting to use the Red Sox steady No. 2 in the hopes that Porcello outperforms those other studs by simply going deep into the ballgame and getting a Win. He’s 1-3 over his last 4 starts despite posting a 1.69 ERA and 8.87 K/9 ratio during that span, and tonight he faces a Rays team that’s sporting the highest K-Rate (26.2%) in the Majors. Current Rays have done some damage against Porcello in the past, but also struck out 46 times over 197 at-bats (23.4% K-Rate) and he went an astonishing 5-0 with a 3.07 ERA over 6 outings against Tampa last year.
Mike Leake: (STL) vs. CHC DK: $7,300/FD: $8,600
His matchup is a bit daunting, but Leake has managed to skirt around trouble every time it arises this year, including a recent escaping act to post a 6th consecutive Quality Start and earn a win in Atlanta. The Cubs lineup is loaded, but somehow they’re sporting a below average .315 wOBA with a 22.1% K-Rate on the year. Leake is holding RHB to a .193 batting average while posting a sparkling 0.94 WHIP overall and he’s found success several years into his career by busting lefties inside, so he should be able to handle Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and former Cardinals OF Jon Jay.
Miguel Gonzalez: (CWS) vs. SD DK: $8,000/FD: $7,400
I was going to use Gonzalez in a matchup against the Twins on Thursday before his start was pushed back, so now I’m certainly recommending him in a home start against the lowly Padres offense. The veteran RHP has been solid throughout the first month of the season with a 3.18 ERA and 3.86 FIP, as he’s pounding the strike zone but avoiding hard contact with a career-best 17.1% Line Drive Rate through 6 outings. San Diego’s offensive struggles go without saying, but just to update you, the Padres are 28th in batting average (.219), wOBA (.286) and sporting the third-highest K-Rate (24.5%) so far this season.
Buster Posey: (SF) vs. CIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $4,100
He homered in 3 straight contests and only pinch hit last night to essentially get a day of rest, but Posey is still somehow the fourth-most expensive catcher on DK. With a .382/.462/.794 slash line over his last 10 appearances, Posey is clearly and elite option and he draws a comfortable matchup tonight against RHP Scott Feldman, who is cruising along at the age of 34 with average numbers across the board. The wind is also blowing out to RF at about 22 MPH in San Fran tonight, so we could see more offense than usual in that spacious ballpark.
Tyler Flowers: (ATL) @ MIA DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,800
Quietly hitting .393 with 5 walks over his last 10 appearances and faces a mediocre RHP in Jose Urena.
Matt Wieters: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,000
Great addition to a stack against Phillies rookie Nick Pivetta if weather looks decent.
Eric Thames: (MIL) vs. NYM DK: $4,800 / FD: $4,400
Former Mets ace Matt Harvey is in the news for the wrong reasons and he’s vulnerable regardless with a diminished arsenal recently. He’s giving up a 1.80 HR/9 ratio with a 5.77 FIP on the year and Thames will have the platoon advantage against the righty. One of the biggest surprises of the season, Thames is sporting a .486 wOBA with a ridiculous .410 ISO Mark and he’s launched 13 homers through 32 games.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) vs. TB DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,300
High-upside value at Fenway tonight against RHP Alex Cobb.
Ryan Zimmerman: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,100
One of the hottest hitters in the game has to draw consideration against a vulnerable rookie.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,400
He’s pretty much the best speed threat in the game, yet Gordon remains a bargain on DK despite his excellent upside. After stealing two more bags last night, he stays home, where he’s batting .375 with 6 SB over just 14 games so far this year and faces a vulnerable RHP in Mike Foltynewicz. Lefties are 14-for-56 (.286) off Folty this year and he’s allowed LHB to post a .367 wOBA with a 31% Hard Contact Rate throughout his career, so Gordon should be able to reach, at which point he’ll point plenty of pressure on the RHP and catcher Tyler Flowers.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ TEX DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,500
Still very cheap on FanDuel ahead of a plus matchup against RHP Andrew Cashner.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) @ CLE DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,100
After homering last night, Dozier faces a vulnerable RHP in Josh Tomlin.
Miguel Sano: (MIN) @ CLE DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,600
Sano is one of the best candidates to go long tonight, as he’s been raking with a ridiculous .424/.520/.824 slash line and 5 homers over his last 11 appearances and faces a homer-prone RHP in Josh Tomlin. The Indians veteran posted the fourth-highest HR/FB Ratio (17.7%) amongst qualified pitchers last year, while Sano just launched his 9th homer over the year in ridiculous fashion on a curveball that was low and outside of the zone. Tomlin is sporting a rough 7.12 ERA and .325 BAA over his first 6 appearances this year and Sano is a solid 4-for-13 with a HR in his career against the righty.
Travis Shaw: (MIL) vs. NYM DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,800
Could serve as a solid addition to a Brewers stack against Harvey.
Matt Davidson: (CWS) vs. SD DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,600 as 1B
Cheap infielder with some upside against boom-or-bust RHP Jhoulys Chacin.
Jean Segura: (SEA) @ TOR DK: $4,500 / FD: $4,200
He’s posted the best floor-ceiling combination of anyone at his position over the past couple of weeks and Segura is clearly on his way to a career year with a .369 batting average and .481 OBP at the top of the Mariners lineup. He could serve as the head of a stack tonight against converted reliever Joe Biagini and has been more productive in RvR matchups with a .371 batting average and 171 wRC+ against RHP this season.
Eduardo Escobar: (MIN) @ CLE DK: $3,200/ FD: $2,600
Interesting addition to a Twins stack after a big game last night.
Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. CHC DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,100
The Cardinals could tag new Cubs RHP Eddie Butler, who has not been particularly impressive so far in his career.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $5,600 / FD: $4,900
He’s expensive for good reason, as Harper squares off with an inexperienced RHP in Nick Pivetta. The big 24-year-old has coughed up 4 homers over 2 starts to post a 30.3% HR/FB ratio during that span and facing Harper is a very daunting task for any pitcher this year. He’s sporting a .372/.496/.717 slash line with a 19.9% BB Rate on the season, giving him a very solid floor as a high-priced option tonight, just keep an eye on the weather in Washington.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) @ TOR DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,200
Betting on Cruz, or teammate Jean Segura for that matter, has rarely failed over the last several weeks and that duo is squarely in play tonight at hitter-friendly Rogers Centre against a converted reliever. Joe Biagini has done well out of Toronto’s bullpen, but he might not last very long in this spot start and that opens the door for Cruz and others to do damage against a mediocre bullpen.