Plays of the Day
Value: White Sox rookie Dylan Covey is 0-3 with a 8.28 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over 5 appearances this season and he’s given up an absurd 7 homers over just 25 innings of work. Yangervis Solarte is an appealing option with the platoon advantage against the RHP, as he’s hit all 3 of his homers with a 30% Hard Contact Rate as a switch hitter from the left side of the plate.
Fade: Nolan Arenado has the platoon advantage at Coors Field against LHP Alex Wood, but the Dodgers southpaw has been excellent in terms of limiting fly balls and avoiding hard contact when facing righties this year.
Team Target Stacks
Dodgers: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager
Rangers: Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters
Padres: Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, Erick Aybar, Ryan Schimpf
No weather concerns tonight.
Chris Tillman: (BAL) @ KC DK: $9,900/FD: $8,300
His start has been pushed back but Tillman still faces the worst offensive team in the Majors thus far. Kansas City is batting .223 against RHP and sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.274) overall this year. Tillman knows how to limit lineups that don’t present a lot of power threats and he got right back to his productive ways while allowing 3 hits over 5 scoreless innings to shut down the White Sox in his season debut. Current Royals are batting .243 (27-for-111) with 20 K’s in their career against Tillman, who should be even more effective in a spacious ballpark. .
Tanner Roark: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $9,100/FD: $8,600
They should finally play some baseball in Washington this week and Roark comes into his start very well rested after consecutive rain outs. He’s expensive on FanDuel because he’s one of the safest bests to earn a win with the host Nationals (-190) heavily favored against a rookie RHP in Nick Pivetta. He’s been solid as always with a 3.46 ERA and .219 BAA through 7 starts and he struck out 8 while limiting the Phillies to 2 ER over two of those outings. He’s sporting his highest K/9 ratio (10.06) against Phileadlphia of any team over the last three years and is a very safe play against that mediocre offense.
Alex Wood: (LAD) @ COL DK: $6,800/FD: $6,400
Wood would be a premier play under any other circumstances after striking out 11 over 5 strong inning against the Pirates, but now he travels to Coors Field, leading to a much lower price tag and likely a lower ownership rate. Yet with a 1.01 WHIP and 62.2% Ground Ball Rate, he has the ability to keep the ball in the yard and avoid serious damage as Clayton Kershaw did last night. The Rockies are sporting the third-highest K-Rate (25.1%) against LHP this year and Wood should be particularly tough on the lefties in that lineup.
Trevor Cahill: (SD) @ CWS DK: $9,300/FD: $8,100
Right next to the Royals in terms of offensive ineffectiveness is the White Sox, and the Northsiders actually are sporting the lowest collective batting average (.218) against RHP this year. Cahill’s resurrected his career with a 3.06 ERA and 2.80 FIP by posting a career-best 0.51 HR/9 ratio and a 57.1% GB Rate. While he’s been more effective at massive Petco Park, he can be trusted in the spacious confines of U.S. Cellular Field tonight against a team has hit the fewest homers (22) in the American League thus far.
Matt Wieters: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
His knees should appreciate a couple of days off, as Wieters hasn’t caught since Wednesday and should therefore be in the lineup with the platoon advantage against Pivetta. The Phillies rookie is sporting a 1.90 WHIP and ridiculous 30.8% HR/FB ratio over 2 starts after giving up 3 homers to the Nationals league-leading offense two weeks ago. While Wieters went 0-for-2 against Pivetta, he’s batting .409 with a .318 ISO Mark at home this season and should bat in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball.
Caleb Joseph: (BAL) @ KC DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,300
Still producing with Welington Castillo on the shelf.
Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) vs. OAK DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,800
Finally heating up with a .361 batting average over his last 10 and he faces Sonny Gray, who has been vulnerable against RHB lately.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. PIT DK: $5,600 / FD: $4,300
Goldschmidt should serve as the heart of one of the best stacks on the board tonight and he’s not appropriately priced on FanDuel. He’s an easy choice on that DFS site against a RHP in Trevor Williams, who appears overwhelmed at the Major League level with a 7.98 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over 7 appearances this season. Williams has been more vulnerable against righties and Goldy is actually doing more damage with a .345 batting average and .463 wOBA against RHP this year.
Justin Bour: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,100
Worth a look as a value with the platoon advantage against RHP Julio Teheran.
Cody Bellinger: (LAD) @ COL DK: $5,400 / FD: $4,100
Might be lightly owned in a LvL matchup against Tyler Anderson, but he’s hitting .333 against lefties this year.
Yangervis Solarte: (SD) @ CWS DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,800 as 3B
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ TEX DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,500
He just continues to produce and faces another mediocre RHP tonight in Nick Martinez.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400
Failed to reach last night but is hitting over .300 with 2 SB in his career against RHP Julio Teheran.
Justin Turner: (LAD) @ COL DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,000
He’s usually more effective against RHP, but Turner’s definitely enjoyed facing this Rockies southpaw. He’s 7-for-12 with two doubles and a HR in his career against Tyler Anderson, who is really struggling with a 6.69 ERA and 1.51 WHIP and 24.3% HR/FB ratio through 7 starts this season. Anderson’s start was pushed back due to knee inflammation, so he could be at less than full strength, while Turner is doing quite well with his .380 batting average and .978 OPS on the season. .
Mike Moustakas: (KC) vs. BAL DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,200
He has good splits in his career against Tillman and could do some damage at home.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,500
Great addition to a Nationals stack against a RHP that’s been more vulnerable in RvR matchups.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,700
He’s another slumping batter, but you’re not going to find a SS with as much upside tonight unless the Dodgers truly pound LHP Tyler Anderson and get to the Rockies bullpen, opening things up for top-priced Corey Seager. As mentioned above, Turner faces a rookie in Nick Pivetta, who is allowing RHB to go 13-for-32 with 3 doubles and 4 HR (.581 wOBA) so far this year and he gave up 4 homers to righties in the Minors last year as well. Turner has only flashed power in RvR matchups this year for the most part and he’ll obviously have an easier time stealing bags off an experienced RHP.
Chris Owings: (ARI) vs. PIT DK: $4,100/ FD: $3,400
Worth adding to a Diamondbacks stack against Trevor Williams.
Erick Aybar: (SD) @ CWS DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,700
Cheap addition to a contrarian Padres stack against RHP Dylan Covey.
Mike Trout: (LAA) vs. DET DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,800
He re-established a power stroke after two games back from a hamstring injury with a HR last night and now he’ll have the platoon advantage against young Daniel Norris, who has given up a 34.6% Hard Contact Rate when facing righties and posted a 1.18 HR/9 ratio overall over 3 years in the Majors. He’s never faced Trout and could be shocked by his plate coverage and power to all fields, while the Angels MVP has posted a .401 wOBA and .238 ISO Mark with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio in his career against the platoon.
Shin-Soo Choo: (TEX) vs. OAK DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,600
An intriguing mid-tier play with plenty of upside, Choo went 5-for-7 with 4 walks, a HR and 2 SB over 3 appearances before laying a goose egg on Thursday. Now he faces a RHP in Sonny Gray, who has never been the same since undergoing elbow surgery and coughed up a 23.7% Line Drive Rate when facing lefties last year. Choo is hitting .366 with a .445 wOBA against RHP this year and happens to be 8-for-21 in his career against Gray.