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Fantasy Basketball: Scouting The NBA DFS Playoffs - May 14 & 15

Western Conference Finals! Game 7 between the Celtics and the Wizards! We are inching closer to the Finals and NBA expert Mark Morales-Smith is here to help you navigate these postseason DFS waters!

Plays of the Day

Value: Jonathan Simmons is my top value pick for the day. With Tony Parker gone and Kawhi Leonard potentially hobbled, a lot falls on Simmons right now, and he’s responded wonderfully. Since Parker went down Simmons has been productive in big minutes. His usage may continue to stay even higher depending on Leonard’s health.

Fade: I have to fade Klay Thompson. He’s already been a disappointment in these playoffs, and the Spurs are a whole different animal on defense. This Popovich coached team is going to buckle down, and the defense is going to be rigid. Despite his enhanced price, Thompson is being outperformed by guys like Avery Bradley this postseason and Bradley has a much easier matchup.

Game to Target

  • Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) @BOS FD: $10,600/DK: $10,900

One of the big storylines heading into this series was, which team had the better PG? Wall has clearly separated himself as not only superior to Isaiah Thomas on both sides of the ball, but he’s also the best player on the court in this series. He is the top Fantasy PG left in the playoffs.

Steph Curry (GS) vs SA FD: $10,200/DK: $8,800

As we get deeper into the playoffs, I begin to worry about Curry beginning to tail off as he has in the past. The Spurs will be coming with a game plan to stop him, and the refs are going to let teams play more now that we are narrowing down the field. Still, I have to take Curry over Thomas because Thomas has had just one 20 point game since his 53 point explosion and is more likely to have more turnover than assists than hit double-digit assists.

Potential Value

Patty Mills (SA) @GS FD: $5,200/DK: $5,400

Mills has filled in for Parker seamlessly to this point. Since the injury to their starting PG, Mills is playing over 30 minutes per game and has topped 20 Fantasy points in every game. A much higher floor gives him a ton of value.

Long Shot

Dejounte Murray (SA) @GS FD: $2,600/DK: $3,500

Murray played a huge role with Kawhi Leonard out and tallied 35.5 Fantasy points in 24 minutes. Leonard is expected to play, but Murray may have already earned more minutes. It’s unclear what kind of minutes he’ll get, however, there is value here if Murray can get on the court for at least 18 minutes in Game 1.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Bradley Beal (WAS) @BOS FD: $7,900/DK: $7,200

While consistency has never been Beal’s thing, he has not disappointed in these playoffs overall. He’s still up and down but is ups have been high, and his downs haven’t been crippling. They are going to need him to show up in Game 7. I’d be lying if I said I have full confidence in him. Nevertheless, I do believe the Wizards are the better team, and Beal will need to help propel them to the ECF.

Avery Bradley (B0S) vs WAS FD: $6,000/DK: $5,800

Bradley has played outstandingly over the past few games. This is the guy that lit it up earlier in the season before injuries which helped make the Celtics what appeared to be a real threat at the time. I don’t see him falling off now. He’s averaged 28 points over the last two games with multiple contributions across the stat sheet. He’s a stud in this one.

Potential Value

Danny Green (SA) @GS FD: $4,000/DK: $4.400

Green has found his stroke, and that can be extremely dangerous for opponents as we’ve seen in past playoff series. His minutes are up, and he’s playing great on both sides of the ball. After not hitting 20 Fantasy points since March 29, he has now topped 20 Fantasy points in three of his last four. He’s doing it with a balanced attack of points, rebounds, blocks and steals.

Long Shot

Manu Ginobili (SA) @GS FD: $3,000/DK: $3,400

Ginobili turned back the clock in Game 5 against the Rockets managing 29.9 Fantasy points. His floor has come up a bit in the playoffs, and that is the premise of him being on this list. He is a low-priced option with upside and a decent floor through the playoffs.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kawhi Leonard (SA) @GS FD: $11,400/DK: $10,300

Leonard is clearly the top SF on the slate even ahead of Kevin Durant if he’s healthy. That’s a big “if” though. He sat out Game 6 against the Rockets and couldn’t finish Game 5. No one has seen him since the injury, so we don’t know if he’s healthy at all. My gut feeling is I trust in Leonard in this one, but you should still be cautiously optimistic at best.

Kevin Durant (GS) vs SA FD: $9,900/DK: $9,900

I’m sure KD won’t be crushed if Leonard is at less than full strength. When at full health, Kawhi’s defense can be devastating, and Durant would certainly benefit if he’s banged up. There is a huge gap between these two and the next best SF. They are sure-fire studs on this slate.

Potential Value

Jonathon Simmons (SA) vs GS FD: $4,200/DK: $4,600

Simmons is my top value pick for the day. With Tony Parker gone and Kawhi Leonard potentially hobbled, a lot falls on Simmons right now, and he’s responded wonderfully. Since Parker went down Simmons has been productive in big minutes. His usage may continue to stay even higher depending on Leonard’s health.

Long Shot

Kelly Oubre (WAS) @BOS FD: $3,000/DK: $3,500

Oubre has had a bit of a controversial series and is coming off an awful game. However, he has played well in Boston in this series. Something most of the Wizards can’t say. They may need a hero in this game, and the fiery young shooter could be one of the guys that step up in a big way if Washington is going to pull off the upset in Boston Gardens.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Draymond Green (GS) vs SA FD: 8,800/DK: $7,900

Green is the top PF on this slate and by far the most consistent. We know LaMarcus Aldridge can be a superstar, but he just doesn’t bring it every night. Green has a high floor, and the upside is right there too. He’s been fantastic so through two rounds of the playoffs bringing it each and every night.

LaMarcus Aldridge (SA) @GS FD: $7,800/DK: $7,000

Aldridge came up huge in the Game 6 closer against the Rockets with Leonard out. Hopefully, he builds off that and a solid four-game spurt and doesn’t just slump back into the shadows against the Warriors. If he can win his matchup with Green, the Spurs can win this series. That is a tall task L.A. though.

Potential Value

Markieff Morris (WAS) @ BOS FD: $5,500/DK: $5,900

Morris is a significantly discounted price compared to our two studs but is more than capable of matching their production on this slate. His matchup is superior, and we’ve seen him play very well in this series and throughout the playoffs. You may be better off saving some money and paying for Morris.

Long Shot

Amir Johnson (BOS) vs WAS FD: $2,500/DK: $2,800

Johnson once again is a guy I love to roll with if I’m punting at PF. His minutes are back up in this series although his production is has topped out at just 16 Fantasy points. Nonetheless, I’ve seen him post big numbers in limited minutes and win me some money in the past as a long-shot option.

Centers

Stud

Al Horford (BOS) vs WAS FD: $8,100/DK: $7,100

After never trusting Horford, I’m finally giving in putting my faith in him on this slate. He has been by far the best option of this pool of centers and has had his way against the Wizards offensively. I’m just hoping this isn’t the time he decides to let me down; he’s made a habit of it in the past.

Potential Value

Marcin Gortat (WAS) @BOS FD: $5,300/DK: $5,500

Gortat has played at least 25 minutes and as many as 42 minutes in every game this series. We’ve seen him top 40 Fantasy points in a game this series and the upside is apparent against these Celtics. He may have the most value of any center on this slate.

Long Shot

Zaza Pachulia (GS) vs SA FD: $4,000/DK: $2,700

I believe we may see more of Pachulia in this series. To compete with the Spurs, you must be intelligent. That’s’ something JaVale McGee isn’t, at least not on the basketball court. This should lead to more minutes for Pachulia and less for McGee.


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