Plays of the Day
Value: Royals RHP Chris Young really struggled against the platoon last year and just to give you an idea, here are his actual numbers: .476 wOBA allowed, 4.14 HR/9 ratio, 2.32 WHIP, 9.25 FIP, all of which were amongst the worst in the league and probably the worst in MLB history. He’s allowing lefties to post a .420 wOBA so far this season and should struggle against Seth Smith, a platoon specialist with a .309 batting average and a .402 wOBA against RHP this year.
Fade: I’m pretty much fading all Red Sox today and using caution with Yankees on the afternoon slate with serious weather concerns in New England it seems unlikely they’ll play baseball at Fenway.
Team Target Stacks
Orioles: Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Seth Smith
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Montero, Kyle Schwarber
Blue Jays: Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters
Strong chance of delays in New York (Yankees) and could be a postponement in Boston due to heavy rains in the area.
Jacob deGrom: (NYM) @ MIL DK: $11,000/FD: $10,700
The Brewers offense is weakened once again with Ryan Braun hitting the DL and Jonathan Villar continuing to regress after a fantastic 2016 campaign, which makes them a fine target despite their offensive explosion on Saturday. Today they’ll face a much better pitcher in deGrom, who quickly bounced back from a rough outing in Atlanta with 11 K’s and 3 ER allowed over 6 innings against the Giants last Monday. Now he faces a Brewers team that’s sporting the second-highest K-Rate (24.5%) in the Majors and deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA and .235 BAA over his last 5 appearances against the Brew Crew.
Jose Quintana: (CWS) vs. SD DK: $10,200/FD: $8,700
He’s been up an down this year, but Quintana is clearly strong candidate for a Quality Start at home against one of the worst offensive teams in the Majors. San Diego is sporting the second-lowest collective batting average (.222) with the third-highest K-Rate (24.4%) in the Majors this year and unlike in previous years, they’ve been even worse with a .203 batting average against LHP. Only Erick Aybar and Wil Myers have even faced Quintana amongst current Pads, and they’re 1-for-14 with 4 K’s, so he should be able to use some deception to limit that lineup.
Kevin Gausman: (BAL) @ KC DK: $8,600/FD: $6,500
He’s a certifiable value on FD and a solid option on DK against the Royals league-worst offense. KC is dead last in collective batting average (.221) with the fewest runs scored (110) by far this year and the Orioles offense should provide plenty of run support with homer-prone RHP Chris Young going for the Royals. Gausman finally found a rhythm this year with 8 K’s and 2 ER allowed over 7 strong innings against the Nationals in his last outing and he has the talent to dominate at this level.
Gio Gonzalez: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $9,400/FD: $8,600
While Gio has had some trouble in the past against the Phillies, he’s still worth a look at home against a below average offense given how well he’s going this year. The Nats southpaw is sporting a 2.64 ERA with a .231 BAA over 7 appearances and he’s been even better with a 1.42 ERA at home. If the Nationals offense produces against straight-line throwing RHP Jeremy Hellickson, all Gonzalez will need to do is produce another Quality Start to exceed value at a reasonable price tag.
Miguel Montero: (CHC) @ STL DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,700
If he’s in the lineup tonight with the platoon advantage against RHP Adam Wainwright, Montero will be a strong value. Waino is allowing LHB to hit .333 with a .397 wOBA and 21.4% HR/FB ratio so far this year while coughing up 3 bombs over just 79 at-bats when facing lefties. Montero has been quiet lately, but is still hitting .347 with a .916 OPS on the year and would be well rested if he draws a Sunday start.
Caleb Joseph: (BAL) @ KC DK: $2,500 / FD: $2,300
Certainly worth a look if he’s starting against RHP Chris Young.
Tyler Flowers: (ATL) @ MIA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
Worth adding to a Braves stack with the platoon advantage against LHP Justin Nicolino.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) @ STL DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,200
If Montero is a good option against Wanwright, Rizzo is even better as a truly elite LHB with tons of upside against a fading veteran. He’s 11-for-39 (.282) with a HR and 3 walks in his career against Waino, but the Cards SP has fallen off a cliff over the last two seasons and is sporting a rough 6.37 ERA with a 3.31 BB/9 ratio over 7 appearances this year. Rizzo’s cheaper than usual because he’s been cold from an average standpoint lately, but he’s still drawing walks and flashing plenty of power with 6 bombs over 36 appearances.
Justin Bour: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,100
Worth a look in the hopes that RHP R.A. Dickey struggles indoors at Marlins Park.
Chris Davis: (BAL) @ KC DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,300
Royals RHP Chris Young coughed up a 21.4% HR/FB ratio last year and Davis could certainly go yard off him.
Yangervis Solarte: (CWS) vs. SD DK: $2,600 / FD: $2,600
After a hot start for the White Sox, Sanchez was inexplicably taken out of the lineup for most of a couple weeks, but he’s back in there and producing with a .393 batting average over his last 10 appearances, including a walk-off single yesterday. While the White Sox offense has been disappointing this season, they’ll have a great chance to produce at home against showered RHP Jered Weaver, who is sporting a league-worst 31.1% HR/FB ratio along with a 6.81 ERA and 7.90 FIP so far this season.
Brandon Phillips: (ATL) @ MIA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,700
Great value option to consider with upside against LHP Justin Nicolino.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. ATL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,400
It’s always a little easier to steal off a knuckleballer and R.A. Dickey goes for the Braves today.
Manny Machado: (BAL) @ KC DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,800
Another extremely talented batter who is underperforming to a degree this year, Machado is slowly coming around with a hit in four straight appearances and he could light it up as part of an O’s stack tonight. Slender RHP Chris Young hardly ever gets ground balls and he posted a 21.4% HR/FB ratio while allowing righties to launch 11 bombs last year. He’s been more vulnerable against the platoon, so Chris Davis and Seth Smith could also serve as great additions to this stack, but Machado is the leader of the O’s offense and he’s homered off Young over 6 career at-bats.
Matt Davidson: (CWS) vs. SD DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800 as 1B
Cheap addition to a White Sox stack against Weaver.
Miguel Sano: (MIN) @ CLE DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,800
Crazy upside as always against mercurial RHP Trevor Bauer.
Jean Segura: (SEA) @ TOR DK: $4,400 / FD: $4,100
Forgive me if this seems repetitive, but Segura is locked in right now and is a risky fade at the SS position. He’s slashing a scorching .447/.490/.596 over his last 10 appearances with a HR, SB and 4 doubles during that span while setting the table for an elite Mariners lineup. Tonight Seattle will look to produce against young RHP Aaron Sanchez, who posted a 4.05 ERA with a 5.55 FIP and 2.03 HR/9 ratio before hitting the DL with a finger injury this year and could be hampered as he looks to make his return today.
J.J. Hardy: (BAL) @ KC DK: $2,800/ FD: $2,400
Worth adding to an Orioles stack against Chris Young.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. PHI DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,700
He came through with a homer last night and faces a pretty vulnerable RHP in Jeremy Hellickson.
Jose Bautista: (TOR) vs. SEA DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,700
After homering in 3 of his last 4 appearances, it’s safe to say that Joey Bats is regaining his rhythm in time for a plus matchup against Mariners young LHP Ariel Miranda. The southpaw fell apart in his last outing, allowing 8 ER on 6 hits with 2 HR against the lowly Phillies and now he faces a Toronto lineup that’s crushed lefties over the past few years. Bautista posted a .209 ISO Mark with 2 homers over 50 at-bats against lefties at Rogers Centre last year and he’s locked in right now.
Seth Smith: (BAL) @ KC DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,100
As mentioned above, Royals RHP Chris Young really struggled against the platoon last year and just to give you an idea, here are his actual numbers: .476 wOBA allowed, 4.14 HR/9 ratio, 2.32 WHIP, 9.25 FIP, all of which were amongst the worst in the league and probably the worst in MLB history. He’s allowing lefties to post a .420 wOBA so far this season and should struggle against Smith, a platoon specialist with a .309 batting average and a .402 wOBA against RHP this year.