Plays of the Day
Value: Matt Holliday’s been a great find for the Yankees so far this year and he’s been hot with a .343/.395/.657 slash line and 3 homers over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a struggling RHP in Jason Hammel, who is allowing RHB to post a .432 wOBA with a 6.25 FIP and 2.13 HR/9 ratio against righties so far this year.
Fade: Yu Darvish is certainly capable of shutting down the Phillies at home, but he’s also a very risky option given his tendency to implode at times. That’s not saying he’s going to struggle tonight, but the other top SP options seem more appealing in better matchups.
Team Target Stacks
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Ian Happ, Miguel Montero
Yankees: Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Brett Gardner, Starlin Castro
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner
Chance of delays in Minnesota with storms in the area.
Dallas Keuchel: (HOU) @ MIA DK: $11,800/FD: $10,900
Simply dominant this year in the toughest of spots, it’s hard not to trust Keuchel in a spacious ballpark against a mediocre National League lineup. Current Marlins have barely seen Keuchel in interleague play with just 5 singles and 6 K’s over 19 combined at-bats and the southpaw is using deception along with a relentless sinker to post a 1.69 ERA and 0.87 WHIP along with a career-best .209 BABIP this year. His one flaw has been a high 19.4% HR/FB ratio, but the spacious confines of Marlins Park should cover up those mistakes as he looks to cruise to his 7th win.
Zack Greinke: (ARI) vs. NYM DK: $11,000/FD: $10,300
Those of us who doubted Greinke after a rough 2016 campaign are getting disproved every time he takes the mound, as he’s in the midst of a huge resurgency for the Diamondbacks. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his last start, finishing with 11 K’s and 1 ER on a solo HR over 8 excellent innings against the lowly Pirates offense. After struggling at Chase Field last year, he’s figured it out with a 2.27 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 ratio over 3 home starts and he should get ample run support from a D’Backs offense that leads the Majors with a collective .300 batting average and league-best 140 runs scored at their home ballpark this year.
Jimmy Nelson: (MIL) @ SD DK: $7,600/FD: $7,800
While he’s been boom or bust all year, Nelson is far more likely to produce in a plus matchup at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight. The Padres remain an easy target with the third-lowest wOBA (.288) and lowest batting average (.220) in the Majors this year and they’re even less dangerous at home, where they hit .208 with just 50 runs scored through 16 games this year. Nelson’s been a bit unlucky to post a 3.99 ERA thanks in part of a .306 BABIP as he’s limiting batters to a career-best 18.8% Line Drive Rate through 7 starts. While he’s 1-3, he could get great run support with Brewers right-heavy lineup facing LHP Clayton Richard tonight.
Stephen Strasburg: (WAS) @ PIT DK: $11,400/FD: $10,400
He’s rarely a solid cash game option because of his borderline absurd injury history and tendency to wilt under pressure, but Strasburg is worth a look tonight based on matchup alone. The Pirates offense is in a complete nosedive with Starling Marte suspended, as they’re ranked dead last in collective batting average (.191) with a pathetic .266 wOBA and 23.2% K-Rate over the last 14 days. Strasburg has stunningly been consistent while going 7 innings in each of his first five starts this year and he’s sporting a solid 3.28 ERA with an even better 2.82 FIP and while his K/9 ratio (8.68) is much lower than usual, he’s more reliable than he’s been in years past.
Buster Posey: (SF) vs. LAD DK: $4,200 / FD: $4,000
He went 4-for-8 off LHP Rich Hill last year and that’s when the Dodgers southpaw was healthy and dealing. Now Hill is in danger of moving to the bullpen if he struggles in his return to the lineup and he appears significantly diminished while dealing with chronic blister issues that are restricting his ability to throw breaking balls. Posey is absolutely raking with a .441/.525/.941 slash line and 5 homers over his last 10 appearances while he’s a career .326 hitter against lefties and is hitting .386 when facing LHP this year.
Stephen Vogt: (OAK) vs. SEA DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,600
Worth a look with the platoon advantage against rookie RHP Chase De Jong.
Miguel Montero: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,500
He has great splits against Reds RHP Bronson Arroyo and either Montero or Willson Contreras will be a good option to stack tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. NYM DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,600
They D’Backs were the best offense against LHP with a collective .348 wOBA last season and Goldschmidt posted a lofty .352 batting average with a .449 wOBA against the platoon in 2016. Tonight he’ll lead the charge against Mets LHP Tommy Milone, who posted a 5.71 ERA with a 21.4% HR/FB ratio last year and is right back at it with a 5.88 ERA and 19.4% HR/FB ratio this season. Righties are 29-for-89 (.341) with 6 homers off Milone this year, while Goldschmidt happens to be 2-for-3 with a HR in a limited sample against the southpaw. He should be worth paying up for tonight.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ SEA DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,100
He’s a decent value to consider against struggling rookie Chase De Jong.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,900
He’s been cold lately but stays patient and could certainly tag vulnerable veteran Bronson Arroyo.
Jonathan Villar: (MIL) vs. SD DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,300
This is the Villar we’ve grown to know and love, a dual threat with 2 doubles, a HR and a SB over 4 appearances before surprisingly going hitless last night. Tonight he’ll have the platoon advantage against Padres LHP Clayton Richard, who is allowing righties to hit .326 with a .401 wOBA and posting a 1.75 WHIP against the platoon this season. Villar hit .309 with a .393 wOBA against LHP last season and is starting to resemble the all-star caliber player he was during the second half of 2016.
Ian Happ: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,200
A fantastic option at the minimum on FanDuel against Arroyo.
Whit Merrifield: (KC) vs. NYY DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,500
He’s flashed some upside recently and will have the platoon advantage against LHP C.C. Sabathia.
Nolan Arenado: (COL) @ MIN DK: $4,800 / FD: $4,300
Twins RHP Phil Hughes has a somewhat unique approach in that he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and hopes to elicit ground balls or pop outs from below average hitters. Yet there’s one issue when facing Arenado in that he’s well, well above average at the plate. He happens to be 3-for-3 with a pair of doubles in his career against Hughes and is heating up with a .333 batting average and 2 homers over his last 10 appearances. As long as the rain holds off in Minnesota, Arenado and the Rockies should produce against this straight-forward pitcher.
Justin Turner: (LAD) @ SF DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,400
A little under priced on DK for a player hitting .373 on the season.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ PIT DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,400
Could jump in on a Nationals stack against RHP Chad Kuhl.
Chris Owings: (ARI) vs. NYM DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,300
The Diamondbacks seem like the best stack to consider tonight and Owings is one of the main components of that with a .364 batting average and .415 wOBA against the platoon this season. He’s been great at home along with the rest of that offense with a .353 average and .414 wOBA at Chase Field and faces a very vulnerable southpaw tonight in Tommy Milone. The Mets LHP is allowing righties to post a 2.84 HR/9 ratio with a 6.28 FIP and 1.74 WHIP against the platoon, while Owings could bat higher in the lineup with A.J. Pollock on the DL.
Hernan Perez: (MIL) vs. SD DK: $3,800/ FD: $3,300 as OF
Filling in admirably for the injured Ryan Braun and will have the platoon advantage tonight against Clayton Richard.
Carlos Correa: (HOU) @ MIA DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,300
He’s suddenly red hot and is worth paying up for as the top-priced option at SS tonight.
Bryce Harper: (WAS) @ PIT DK: $5,600 / FD: $5,100
The Nationals still lead the league in just about every offensive category and Harper’s obviously been a huge part of that with a .384/.500/.752 slash line and 34 RBIs on the year. He went 3-for-4 last night after hitting consecutive walk-off homers and draws a juicy matchup against RHP Chad Kuhl, who has allowed lefties to go 24-for-67 (.414) with 9 XBH and 2 homers on the year. Harper’s been even better on the road with a .434 batting average and .576 wOBA this year and is pricey for good reason.
Matt Holliday: (NYY) @ KC DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,600
Holliday’s been a great find for the Yankees so far this year and he’s been hot with a .343/.395/.657 slash line and 3 homers over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a struggling RHP in Jason Hammel, who is allowing RHB to post a .432 wOBA with a 6.25 FIP and 2.13 HR/9 ratio against righties so far this year. Holliday has experience against the former Cubs pitcher and he’s 6-for-19 with 3 doubles and a HR in his career against Hammel, while he’s strong enough to hit one out of spacious Kaufmann Stadium.