Plays of the Day
Value: Ryon Healy got hot towards the end of last season and he’s finding that rhythm again with a .316 batting average and 3 homers over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a vulnerable SP in Christian Bergman, who is sporting a 4.15 ERA with a 4.87 ERA over 2 appearances this year after posting a horrible 8.39 ERA with a 2.55 HR/9 ratio while playing for Colorado last season.
Fade: Michael Fulmer is getting right back at it with a solid 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 7 appearances this year, but he faces a great offensive team tonight in the Orioles after these two squads combined for 24 runs in extra innings last night.
Team Target Stacks
Rangers: Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Mike Napoli, Elvis Andrus
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
Tigers: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez
Phillies: Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Freddie Galvis
Chance of a rainout in Minnesota tonight.
Michael Pineda: (NYY) @ KC DK: $10,100/FD: $8,600
Pineda is an easy choice for me tonight, especially at that modest price tag on FanDuel. He faces the worst offensive team in baseball this year in the Royals and has been rock solid in 6 straight outings since struggling in his debut at Tampa back on April 5. Pineda is sporting a 2.45 xFIP with a career-high 10.89 K/9 ratio and his Achilles heel has been a 24.2% HR/FB ratio, but the massive confines of KC’s Kaufmann Stadium could cover up any mistakes on fly balls. Current Royals are 30-for-114 (.263) with a 25.4% K-Rate in their careers against Pineda, who is pitching like an ace again.
Kyle Hendricks: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $9,100/FD: $9,700
There’s something to be said for the most expensive SP on FanDuel and one of the stingiest pitchers in the Majors last year, as Hendricks is sporting a 3.40 ERA that only looks big in comparison to his league-leading 2.13 ERA last year. While he’s struggled in a very small sample at Wrigley Field this year, Hendricks posted a minuscule 1.32 ERA with a .199 BAA at home last year and should grow more comfortable at home after managing to post a Quality Start at Coors Field in his last outing. Current Reds are sporting a 20.2% K-Rate with a collective .273 batting average against him, and if you take away slugger Joey Votto, they’re just 20-for-88 (.227), so hopefully he can pitch around the Reds one star and avoid much damage.
Jacob Turner: (WAS) @ PIT DK: $6,600/FD: $5,500
After a brief stint in the bullpen, Turner gets another chance for a spot start against a team that is struggling to produce anything offensively right now. Pittsburgh is sporting the lowest collective batting average (.194) and wOBA (.258) with a 23.4% K-Rate over the last 14 days and Turner will face that depleted lineup at spacious PnC Park. He’s been solid with a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 7 appearances this season and is posting a 2.97 FIP after putting up a sparkling 2.01 FIP over 3 starts in AAA this spring, so give him a shot as one of the cheapest options on the board.
Matt Shoemaker: (LAA) vs. CWS DK: $8,800/FD: $8,100
He flashed his upside with a dominant 6-inning shutout of the Tigers at home last Friday and will stay home to face a White Sox team that’s struggling more than any other offense in the Majors right now. The Northsiders are sporting a weak .292 wOBA with the second-lowest collective ISO Mark (.112) over the last 14 days, so they’re unlikely to start slugging against Shoemaker at spacious Angels Stadium. Giving up homers has been an issue for him in the past with a 1.84 HR/9 ratio on the year but he’s sporting a solid .221 BAA this year and the rest of his numbers should come around due to his ample talent.
Willson Contreras: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,700
The Cubs offense is starting to peak again and Contreras has been a big part of that trend with 5 hits over his last 13 at-bats, including a two-homer game last Friday. He should be productive tonight if he’s in the lineup against mediocre RHP Scott Feldman, who is posting modest numbers across the board with a career-worst 26% Line Drive Rate on the season. Feldman’s been worse in RvR matchups, as righties are posting a .336 wOBA with a 30.3% Hard Contact Rate against him this year, so Contreras may start again over LHB Miguel Montero.
Victor Martinez: (DET) vs. BAL DK: $3,400 as 1B/ FD: $3,100
A solid value play on either DFS site and decent addition to a Tigers stack.
Joanthan Lucroy: (TEX) vs. PHI DK: $3,900 / FD: $2,700
All of a sudden Lucroy is hot again and he’s still a value play on FanDuel.
Miguel Cabrera: (DET) vs. BAL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,500
Miggy is struggling right now, but draws the perfect get-right matchup with RHP Ubaldo Jimenez coming to town. The Orioles veteran is sporting a 6.15 ERA, 6.46 FIP and 21.6% HR/FB ratio while somehow regressing further after a putrid 2016 campaign and he’s had his troubles with the Tigers in the past. Cabrera is 15-for-47 with a whopping 11 walks to post a .409 wOBA in his career against Jimenez, so his floor is at least a bit higher than it’s been recently while he’s posted an uncharacteristic .195 batting average over his last 10 appearances.
Justin Smoak: (TOR) @ ATL DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,500
He’ll have the platoon advantage against struggling RHP Mike Foltynewicz.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,900
He snapped out of his funk with a HR last night and is definitely worth a look at that diminished price tag on DK.
Ian Happ: (CHC) vs. CIN DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,300
Not playing Happ at this price tag makes almost no sense at all. The rookie is 4-for-10 with 2 homers, 3 walks and 4 RBIs during a stellar start to his career and he’s almost guaranteed to start again with Ben Zobrist (back) likely out. Happ is simply far too talented to be priced this low on either main DFS site and he could pay off in a big way once again as part of a Cubbies stack at home.
Devon Travis: (TOR) @ ATL DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,400
He’s hitting .320 during May and is coming around in a big way.
Yolmer Sanchez: (CWS) @ LAA DK: $2,300 / FD: $2,600
Just about the only hot hitter in the White Sox lineup, but he’s very hot with a .438 batting average over his last 10 appearances.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ SEA DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100 as 1B
Healy got hot towards the end of last season and he’s finding that rhythm again with a .316 batting average and 3 homers over his last 10 appearances, including one last night. The A’s are always a contrarian stacking option given their weak offensive reputation, but they face arguably the most vulnerable SP on the board in Christian Bergman, who is sporting a 4.15 ERA with a 4.87 ERA over 2 appearances this year after posting a horrible 8.39 ERA with a 2.55 HR/9 ratio while playing for Colorado last season. Righties hit .346 with a 41.5% Hard Contact Rate off Bergman last year and Healy could definitely do damage in this matchup.
Trevor Plouffe: (OAK) @ SEA DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
An alternative value at 3B on FanDuel to consider against Bergman.
Maikel Franco: (PHI) @ TEX DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,200
Could have a big night against overachieving RHP Andrew Cashner.
Freddy Galvis: (PHI) @ TEX DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,100
Rangers RHP Andrew Cashner pitched well against an injury-plagued Mariners lineup and the weak Athletics offense, but he is still struggling with a 5.15 FIP and 5.74 xFIP that certainly belies his 2.43 ERA on the season. The Phillies can stack lefties against him with Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders and Galvis leading the platoon, as Cashner allowed LHB to post a .380 wOBA last season. The switch-hitting infielder is batting .277 with a .331 wOBA and 30.5% Hard Contact Rate against RHP and he’s been going well lately with 8 hits, including 3 XBH and a SB, over his last 8 appearances.
Jose Iglesias: (DET) vs. BAL DK: $2,600/ FD: $2,300
He’s a bit of a longshot, but worth punting with against a RHP in Jimenez that he’s had success against in the past.
Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. OAK DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,900
Love his upside in a RvR matchup at home against Jesse Hahn.
Aaron Judge: (NYY) @ KC DK: $4,900 / FD: $4,200
Holliday’s been a great find for the Yankees so far this year and he’s been hot with a .343/.395/.657 slash line and 3 homers over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a struggling RHP in Jason Hammel, who is allowing RHB to post a .432 wOBA with a 6.25 FIP and 2.13 HR/9 ratio against righties so far this year. Holliday has experience against the former Cubs pitcher and he’s 6-for-19 with 3 doubles and a HR in his career against Hammel, while he’s strong enough to hit one out of spacious Kaufmann Stadium.
J.D. Martinez: (DET) vs. BAL DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,600
Miguel Cabrera is somewhat of a longshot given his recent slump, but there are other Tigers that can be stacked in cash game formats against Jimenez. Martinez stands out as a premier option after going 3-for-4 with 2 homers in his second appearance of the season last Saturday and following that up with another two-homer game while also drawing two walks in a marathon game against the O’s last night. He’ll stay home against Jimenez, who has been very homer-prone over the last two years with a 2.14 HR/9 ratio this year and JD is 5-for-14 with 2 homers in his career against the O’s starter.