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Plays of the Day
Value: The Red Sox are calling up one of their best pitching prospects in Hector Velazquez at the right time with a trip to massive Oakland Coliseum on tap. The A’s lineup is hardly imposing with a .232 batting average and 23.3% K-Rate on the season and Velazquez has been lighting it up with a 1.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over 5 starts at the AAA level this spring.
Fade: Aaron Judge has been very formidable in the middle of that Yankees lineup this season, but it’s hard to imagine him teeing off on stingy LHP Danny Duffy, who keeps the ball down in the zone and limits fly balls.
Team Target Stacks
Mariners: Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel, Kyle Seager
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger
White Sox: Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Yolmer Sanchez
Chance of delays in Kansas City tonight.
Marcus Stroman: (TOR) @ ATL DK: $11,300/FD: $9,200
While he’s clearly more difficult to afford on DK tonight, Stroman checks in as a very affordable option on FD in a plus matchup on the road. The Braves are doing much better offensively, but still sports a -16.1 runs below average offensive rating and become significantly weaker with star 1B Freddie Freeman (hand) looking at a multi-week absence. As long as he’s not facing a prolific lineup, such as his sole implosions of the year against the Yankees and Red Sox, Stroman’s been on point with a 3.37 FIP and 58.7% ground ball rate. His strikeouts spiked recently with 9 in a tough matchup against Seattle and he’ll face a N.L. lineup tonight with a hole at the back end in the form of a pitcher.
Hector Velazquez: (BOS) @ OAK DK: $6,400/FD: $5,600
The Red Sox are calling up one of their best pitching prospects at the right time with a trip to massive Oakland Coliseum on tap. That ballpark has the lowest HR Factor in the American League and the A’s lineup is hardly imposing with a .232 batting average and 23.3% K-Rate on the season. Velazquez has been lighting it up with a 1.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over 5 starts at the AAA level this spring and it’s worth speculating that he’s ready for the big time, or at least for a below average A.L. lineup.
Julio Teheran: (ATL) vs. TOR DK: $8,800/FD: $8,200
Toronto’s lineup may be improving, but still badly misses former MVP Josh Donaldson and is struggling with a collective .237 batting average over the last 14 days. Teheran is certainly capable of turning around his lackluster numbers at home this year considering he’s sporting a career 3.02 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and .227 BAA at Turner Field. He’ll have an easy out at the back of the lineup with Stroman batting on the road tonight and could surprise some Blue Jays hitters in this interleague matchup.
Yasmani Grandal: (LAD) vs. MIA DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
The Dodgers could serve as the top stack on tonight’s slate with a plus matchup on tap at home against RHP Edinson Volquez, who is 0-5 with a 4.41 ERA and a .330 BABIP so far this season. The Dodgers prefer to face RHP and Grandal is no different, as he’s hitting .378 with a .417 wOBA against righties at home this year. Volquez is allowing LHB to hit .286 with a .399 wOBA and 1.71 HR/9 ratio on the season and he’s been homer-prone throughout his career.
Sandy Leon: (BOS) @ OAK DK: $2,900/ FD: $2,600
Coming around for Boston and faces a rusty RHP in Sonny Gray.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) @ LAD DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,800
Will have the platoon advantage against vulnerable LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Cody Bellinger: (LAD) vs. MIA DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,500
Right next to Grandal in terms of upside at a reasonable price tag is the likely Rookie of the Year in Bellinger. He’s another LHB that could make life very difficult for Volquez tonight, as he’s sporting a .438 wOBA with a .407 ISO Mark and impressive 33.3% HR/FB ratio against the platoon this year. While he’s cooled off slightly after an incredible start to his MLB career, Bellinger still possesses tons of upside in a plus matchup at home.
Danny Valencia: (SEA) vs. CWS DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,300
He’s been heating up lately and faces a rookie RHP in Dylan Covey.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) @ OAK DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
Worth a look as a cheap addition to a Red Sox stack.
Yolmer Sanchez: (CWS) @ SEA DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,800
While his price tag has risen to reasonable levels, Sanchez is still a very solid value in a prime matchup tonight. The White Sox face a rookie RHP in Sam Gaviglio, who has been very aggressive throughout his Minor League career but immediately ran into trouble while allowing a HR over 2 IP in his MLB debut last Thursday. Now he’ll have to contend with a red-hot hitter in Sanchez, who is batting .441 over his last 10 appearances and has flashed upside while producing double-digit FPs in 4 straight. Look for him to keep it going tonight.
Whit Merrifield: (KC) vs. NYY DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,500
He’ll have the platoon advantage against Yanks LHP Jordan Montgomery.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) @ LAD DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800
Could get overlooked in a LvL matchup against Ryu.
Kyle Seager: (SEA) vs. CWS DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,600
Sometimes short slates can bring clarity in terms of which players to select at each position and Seager stands out as the clear-cut best option at 3B tonight. He’s turned his season around with 3 homers and an .820 OPS while reaching base in 9 of his last 10 appearances and will have the platoon advantage against rookie RHP in Dylan Covey, who is posting a 23.7% HR/FB ratio with a 7.98 ERA and 7.10 FIP through 6 outings. Seager has been much better at home with a .340 batting average and .420 wOBA against RHP and he should produce in this matchup.
Trevor Plouffe: (OAK) vs. BOS DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,800
A fine option to consider against rookie Hector Velazquez after a hot stretch of hitting.
Justin Turner: (LAD) vs. MIA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,400
Worth adding to a Dodgers stack against Volquez.
Jean Segura: (SEA) vs. CWS DK: $4,800 / FD: $4,100
Segura continues to rake with a .388 batting average during his league-leading 16-game hitting streak and he shouldn’t be slowed down by a weak RHP tonight. Dylan Covey has actually been more vulnerable in RvR matchups, as righties are 27-for-77 (.415) with a collective .542 wOBA against him this year. Segura’s also enjoyed great reverse-platoon splits with a .333 batting average and .384 wOBA against RHP last season and he’s worth the money as the top SS option tonight.
Tim Anderson: (CWS) @ SEA DK: $3,500/ FD: $2,700
A low-upside option to consider against Gaviglio.
Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. MIA DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,600
Clearly a great addition to a Dodgers stack against Volquez.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. CWS DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,300
It’s hard to go wrong with any of the Mariners elite batters tonight against Covey, who barely managed to limit the Padres lowly offense in his last outing but still coughed up two more homers to raise his total to 9 on the year. He’s given up 7 to RHB with a ridiculous 4.97 HR/9 ratio and 11.65 FIP in RvR matchups and it goes without saying that Cruz is an elite righty when it comes to power. He’s been mashing since the calendar turned to May with a .327 batting average and .400 wOBA this month and is as good a candidate as anyone to homer tonight.
Melky Cabrera: (CWS) @ SEA DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,000
This is a rare slate in that you can consider a couple of White Sox bats despite their collective struggles because they face such a vulnerable pitcher. If Gaviglio tries to pound the zone against a dangerous switch hitter in Cabrera, he could get burnt, as Melky is sporting a 23.1% Line Drive Rate against righties this year and a .330 wOBA throughout his career. He’s hit safely in 5 straight appearances and has yet to flash much upside, but could jump in on a rally or two as he did last night.