The 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes drew a competitive field of ten---led by Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. As most know, even though he 'capped as the best horse in the Derby, I tossed him from any top spot plays because of the muddy track & the field size of 20. I don't like to play favorites on those kind of surfaces---especially on Derby Day---as I look to the horses with the most upside that offer 'value'. Well the formula numbers were correct and it proved to be a costly mistake for me to toss him from any top spot tickets. Lets just say I wont make the same mistake twice here in the Preakness.
When: Saturday, May 20, 2017
Time : 6:48 p.m. EST post time
- #4 Always Dreaming (4/5)
- #5 Classic Empire (3-1)
- #2 Cloud Computing (12-1)
- #10 Conquest Mo Money (15-1)
- #1 Multiplier (30-1)
Always Dreaming---who drew the 4 hole---will be seeking his fifth straight victory and all indications are he will find the winners circle yet again leaving him one win away from a Triple Crown achievement. Trained by perhaps the best trainer in the industry right now--Todd Pletcher---has this horse absolutely rolling right now. Being a speed horse----in a race that is seriously devoid of any---I envision Always Dreaming tucking in behind expected leader Conquest Mo Money. As all horse players know, the Preakness always seems to favor horses who either find the lead or race just off of it. His expected odds of 3/5 make him a very unappealing win bet selection. In this race we will key him in the first and second spots in exotics hoping to find some excellent value in some long shots hitting the board.
There is some value with two new comers to the field---Arkansas Derby runner-up #10 Conquest Mo Money & Wood Memorial third place finisher #2 Cloud Computing. Anyone who has followed my articles the last few years here on Scout.com know that I loved Uncle Mo. Well needless to say its easy to see how the very same formula calculations lands upon the son of Uncle Mo here at long shot odds. Want to know something most people are unaware of? Conquest Mo Money's owner did something ---you never see in the Derby---Tom McKenna withdrew his horse from Derby consideration & let another horse take his spot among qualifiers in America's most prestigious race! How about this? Why would he do that you ask? He has stated that he did for the well being of the horse and it had to be very difficult to pass up a place in the Derby. It will now cost McKenna $150,000 to Supplement his way into the Preakness! Hmmm, these owners don't normally make these kind of financial commitments unless they feel they have a serious shot to win. Well rested off the layoff--the calculations envision Conquest Mo Money to have the early lead in the Preakness with possibly little if any early pressure up front. His triple digit speed figure, earned in the Arkansas Derby, screams for significant improvement for a horse who has proven he can find the winners circle around two turns in his career. If he is able to break clean from the far outside and take the first half mile alone up front---this well rested son of Uncle Mo could find himself attempting to go wire heading for home---if not the very least hitting the board and offering great value for any exotic tickets.
#2 Cloud Computing has been taking to the Pimlico surface and been working great in the mornings this past week. All his trainer Chad Brown does with horses in Pimlico is win---with an amazing 58% in the money winners. I think this is perhaps the sneakiest horse in the field and I could envision him being bet down come post time making his the 3rd choice behind Always Dreaming & Classic Empire. As I mentioned above, in a race that appears to be lacking serious speed on paper, this boy should find himself up with the early front runners and if there is no pace melt down hitting the board well within reach.
Ok, now your probably wondering how I have not yet mentioned the 4th place Derby finisher #5 Classic Empire the biggest threat to Always Dreaming? Well, this could very well be your Preakness winner if Always Dreaming falters. Classic Empire had perhaps the worst trip of any horse in the Derby and still found a way to finish a respectable 4th. I expect him to be much closer to the front than he was in the Derby with Conquest Uncle Mo leading & Computing, Always Dreaming & Classic Empire tucking him behind to formulate the front wave for the first half mile. This could very well be one of the cheapest payouts in recent Preakness payouts if this race goes 4-5.
My Plays $$$
TOP SELECTIONS: 4-5-2-10-1
- $$$$$ Exacta P/W: 4,5 / 2,4,5,10
- $$$ Exacta P/W: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5,8,10
- $$ Exacta P/W: 2,10 / 2,4,5,10
- $$$$$ Trifecta P/W: 4 / 2,5 / 1,2,8,9,10
- $$$ Trifecta P/W: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5,10 / 1,2,4,5,8,9,10
- $ Trifecta P/W: 2,10 /1,2,4,5,10 /1,2,5,10
SPECIAL SUPERFECTA PLAY
- $$$$$ SUPER: 4 / 2,5,10 / 2,5,10 / 1,6,8,9,10
- $$$ SUPER: 4,5/ 2,4,5,10 / 1,2,5,10 / 1,2,6,8,9,10
- $ SUPER: 2,10/ 2,4,5,10 / 1,2,5,10 / 1,2,6,8,9,10