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Plays of the Day
Value:Justin Turner clearly stands out as a player you definitely want to have some exposure to as part of a Dodgers stack against weak RHP Asher Wojchiechowski. Righties are 11-for-37 with 3 HRs to post a .439 wOBA against Woj this year and Turner’s been more dangerous in RvR matchups throughout his career.
Fade: Luis Severino is going well for the Yankees, but he’s been vulnerable to the long ball with a 16.7% HR/FB ratio and there are strong winds blowing out to LF at Yankee Stadium tonight with the slugging Orioles coming to town.
Team Target Stacks
Dodgers: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal
Astros: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann
Marlins: Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich
Indians: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Yan Gomes
White Sox: Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia, Todd Frazier.
No real weather concerns today or tonight.
Chris Sale: (BOS) vs. DET DK: $12,700/FD: $11,400
The Tigers made it tough on rookie southpaw Brian Johnson last night, but face a whole different animal tonight in Sale. The Red Sox ace got back to his dominant ways with 9 K’s over 6 IP in his last outing and while he’s actually pitching worse than he was in April, he’s earned 3 straight wins thanks to great run support from the Red Sox offense. Boston is capable of piling up some crooked numbers tonight against Justin Verlander, who is sporting a 6.53 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP over 7 road starts this year and might not be one hundred percent, but when you’re paying up for Sale, it’s mostly because of his individual upside due to that league-leading 12.75 K/9 ratio.
Alex Wood: (LAD) vs. CIN DK: $9,500/FD: $8,900
Wood was leaving it all out there with a stellar 1.69 ERA and 1.91 FIP to go 6-0 over his first 10 appearances for the Dodgers and that extreme effort might have put him on the 10-day DL to recover. The hard-throwing LHP has an unorthodox delivery that puts strain on his arm similarly to Chris Sale, but like Sale, he’s been close to unhittable this year and he draws a good matchup at home tonight against a Reds team whose best hitter is LHB Joey Votto. Wood has posted a 1.30 ERA with a .172 BAA and 11.39 K/9 ratio at home this year and he stands to serve as an even better per-dollar play than Sale if he continues to deal.
Ariel Miranda: (SEA) vs. TOR DK: $7,400/FD: $8,500
I suppose it’s a lefty type of slate tonight with Miranda standing out as the value SP with the most upside. He’s coming off the best outing of his career in the form of a CG 4-hitter with 9 K’s and 1 ER allowed at home against the Rays to improve his home splits (2.02 ERA, .198 BAA and 0.90 WHIP) even further. The talented young southpaw has been boom more often than bust at home and faces a Blue Jays offense tonight that’s only hitting a collective .225 (happens to be tied for third-lowest mark in the Majors with the Rays) with a 23.4% K-Rate when facing LHP this season.
Sonny Gray: (OAK) @ TB DK: $8,300/FD: $7,700 (Afternoon)
After a very rough downturn in his career, Gray appears to be back on the right track with Quality Starts in 4 of his last 5 outings. He’ll face a relatively weak Rays offense tonight that’s sporting the highest K-Rate (26%) in the Majors this year while batting a modest .249 as a unit, so there’s plenty of upside here for a RHP with an 8.42 K/9 ratio over 7 appearances. Current Rays have just one more hit (14) than strikeouts (13) over 61 career at-bats against Gray, who shouldn’t have much trouble at the spacious venue of Tropicana Field.
Yasmani Grandal: (LAD) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,100
The most obvious stacking option in a plus matchup tonight is Big Blue, as the Dodgers are sporting a collective .332 wOBA at home this season. None of these batters are particularly expensive and Grandal is the perfect example of a mid-tier play with upside who should bat in the middle of that lineup. He’s slumping a bit lately, but still slashing .306/.355/.498 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs over 29 appearances at home this season and he’ll have the platoon advantage against young RHP Asher Wojchiechowski, who allowed lefties to post a .458 wOBA in his last full season two years ago.
Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) vs. WAS DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,700
After finally coming through with a big game last night, Lucroy is an appealing value to consider against LHP Gio Gonzalez this afternoon.
Yan Gomes: (CLE) vs. CWS DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,700
He came through as an upside value play last night and would have the platoon advantage if starting tonight against LHP David Holmberg.
Edwin Encarnacion: (CLE) vs. CWS DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,500
In his return to the lineup last night, Encarnacion didn’t waste any time with 3 hits and a HR to pace the Indians offense. Cleveland’s batters should be ready to produce in another plus matchup tonight against LHP David Holmberg, who is much worse than he’s solid numbers this year might indicate. Encarnacion was heating up over the last couple weeks prior to missing a couple of games with a hip injury, but he’s back at DH now that the Indians are home and takes his career .376 wOBA against LHP into a matchup against a vulnerable southpaw.
Matt Carpenter: (STL) vs. PHI DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
He’s found a rhythm again and is a bit under priced as a result ahead of a matchup against rookie RHP Nick Pivetta.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) vs. DET DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,300
He’s a dangerous hitter at Fenway Park and faces a RHP in Justin Verlander who might be hampered by a groin injury.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) @ PIT DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,200 (Afternoon)
With a SB in 3 straight appearances, Gordon’s flashing steady upside and justifying the assertion that he’s been under priced on both main DFS sites throughout most of the season. He draws another plus matchup against young RHP Trevor Williams, who is sporting a 5.30 ERA with a 4.91 ERA over his first 19 MLB appearances and allowing lefties to hit .297 with a .361 wOBA during that span. Gordon’s been able to pick on backup catcher Elias Diaz with Francisco Cervelli injured and the combination of a sophomore SP and an inexperienced catcher makes him very appealing as a potential base stealer.
Yolmer Sanchez: (CWS) @ CLE DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,900
Worth adding to a cheap White Sox stack against RHP Josh Tomlin.
Jed Lowrie: (OAK) @ TB DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,200
He’s been hot over the last month and could certainly produce against weak RHP Erasmo Ramirez.
Justin Turner: (LAD) vs. CIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,700
Turner clearly stands out as a player you definitely want to have some exposure to as part of a Dodgers stack against weak RHP Asher Wojchiechowski. The Reds SP is sporting a 4.50 ERA with a 5.22 FIP and 1.93 HR/9 ratio over 4 appearances this year and righties are 11-for-37 with 3 HRs to post a .439 wOBA against him this year. Turner’s been more dangerous in RvR matchups throughout his career and he’s hitting .457 with a stunning 1.171 OPS against RHP at home after homering again last night.
Yunel Escobar: (LAA) @ HOU DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,100
He continues to rake in all matchups and faces a vulnerable RHP today in Mike Fiers.
Todd Frazier: (CWS) @ CLE DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300
With 3 HRs over his last 5 appearances, Frazier is a decent GPP option to consider against homer-prone RHP Josh Tomlin.
Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. CIN DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,600
Yes, another Dodgers bat to consider against vulnerable young Woj. The Reds SP has been worse against righties this year, but more vulnerable against the platoon throughout his Minor and Major League careers, while Seager is clearly an elite LHB when he’s locked in. After logging 4 hits, 2 walks, and homering over his last 4 appearances, it’s safe to say he’s coming around and is a good buy-low candidate in this matchup. At the heart of a Dodgers lineup that could erupt tonight, he’s very much a quality option in any format.
JT Riddle: (MIA) @ PIT DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,800
He continues to rake and remains under priced despite drawing another plus matchup against an inexperienced SP.
Chris Owings: (ARI) vs. MIL DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,200
Worth a look at home against young RHP Junior Guerre considering Owings’ dramatic home/road splits.
Giancarlo Stanton: (MIA) @ PIT DK: $4,300 / FD: $4,000 (Afternoon)
Like his running mate Dee Gordon, Stanton also seems very much under priced ahead of good matchups on the road. Perhaps it’s because DK had no time to adjust after he launched a HR with 3 RBIs and added a double in an offensive showcase last night, but in any case, Stanton and Gordon make for a great mini-stack this afternoon against young Trevor Williams. The Pirates RHP posted a rough 30.8% HR/FB ratio during his rookie year and is sporting a 5.41 FIP while allowing RHB to post a 30.8% Hard Contact Rate this season, so Stanton should continue to demolish baseballs this Saturday.
Avisail Garcia: (CWS) @ CLE DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,100
This is the stack to target for some value tonight, as none of the White Sox cost very much and we might see even more value in the lineup if Jose Abreu (leg) is forced to sit out tonight’s contest. They’ll be facing a RHP in Josh Tomlin who posted the highest HR/FB ratio (17.7%) amongst qualified SPs last year, while Garcia is hitting .330 in somewhat quiet fashion this year and he’s flashed power with 2 homers over his last 4 appearances, so give him a look along with fellow values Leury Garcia and Melky Cabrera in this potential stack.