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Plays of the Day
Value:I’d rather bet against 40-year-old RHP Bronson Arroyo with Padres hitters such as Yangervis Solarte. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against a RHP that has allowed LHB to post a .407 wOBA with a stunningly poor 4.07 HR/9 ratio when facing the platoon this year.
Fade: Trea Turner is coming around for the Nationals and that lineup is always dangerous, but you can fade him at his exorbitant price tag in a matchup against deceptive RHP Mike Foltynewicz, who has been able to avoid hard contact recently.
Team Target Stacks
Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorious
Reds: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Zack Cozart
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Dustin Pedroia
Padres: Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, Erick Aybar.
Chance of rain delays in Minnesota tonight.
Stephen Strasburg: (WAS) vs. ATL DK: $12,700/FD: $11,400
Despite his reputation for breaking down or folding at times, Strasburg is pitching like a true ace this season with a 1.02 WHIP, 2.70 FIP and 9.97 K/9 ratio and he’s yet to miss a turn in the rotation. Tonight he’ll face a Braves lineup that managed to stay afloat for a bit after Freddie Freeman’s serious wrist injury, but is ranked 24th in collective wOBA (.303) over the last 14 days. Active Braves are sporting a 28.7% K-Rate over 108 career at-bats against Strasburg, who is 2-0 with 21 K’s over 2 appearances (14.2 IP) against Atlanta this season.
Yu Darvish: (TEX) @ HOU DK: $8,800/FD: $10,000
Facing the Astros offense these days is a daunting proposition, as they put up another huge crooked number on Sunday, but Darvish is capable of meeting the challenge. At the very least, he’s worth a look in tournament formats on DK at that modest price tag after he struck out 9 in a Quality Start against the Mets last Wednesday. While it seems like he’s having a down year, Darvish is still sporting a 1.13 WHIP with a .246 BABIP and an 11.3% Swinging Strike Rate that is consistent with the swing-and-miss stuff he’s thrown throughout his MLB career. He’s held current Astros to a collective .229 batting average (32-for-140) with 45 K’s and a weak .269 wOBA in his career, so he’s worth a gamble on the road.
Joe Musgrove: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $7,600/FD: $7,600
At this point, it’s worth gaining some exposure to the red-hot Astros offense by using their SP and Musgrove is an intriguing value play tonight despite starting opposite Darvish. He was solid during his rookie campaign and recently spun a 7-inning shutout of the Orioles at home before hitting the 10-day DL with minor shoulder discomfort. Now he’ll face a Rangers lineup that’s sporting the second-highest K-Rate (27.3%) in the Majors over the last 14 days and has been disappointing overall with a collective .314 wOBA on the season and he could receive plenty of run support from his teammates.
Rick Porcello: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $8,600/FD: $8,800
Sometimes a change of scenery can really benefit a SP, or in this instance, a change of competition. Porcello has been hit hard over his last few starts against elite A.L. East lineups, but now he faces a Phillies team that is sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.280) with the fewest runs scored (41) and a 23.4% K-Rate over the last 14 days. While he’s struggled at home this year, Porcello used the friendly confines of Fenway Park to his advantage while posting a 2.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home last season and he’s capable of returning to that form if he can regain his confidence in plus matchups such as this one.
Welington Castillo: (BAL) @ CWS DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,900
The Orioles offense is struggling and Castillo has yet to really find a rhythm as he comes off the DL, but that trend could turn around tonight as they face a weak RHP in Mike Pelfrey. The White Sox veteran SP is posting a 4.95 xFIP while giving up a 30.4% Hard Contact Rate and has only managed to post Quality Starts through deception and a bit of luck. Castillo was raking with a .320 batting average during the month of May and it’s only a matter of time before he regains his stroke.
Sandy Leon: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,100
Could be worth a look if starting at Fenway against RHP Jerad Eickhoff.
Gary Sanchez: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $5,000 / FD: $4,000
While he’s incredibly expensive, Sanchez could continue to slug along with the rest of the Yankees lineup.
Joey Votto: (CIN) @ SD DK: $5,200 / FD: $4,400
Votto is powerful enough to leave massive Petco Park and versatile enough to produce even if he doesn’t homer in a fantastic matchup against RHP Luis Perdomo. The Padres SP has somehow been worse with a 5.85 ERA over 6 appearances in San Diego and he happens to be allowing LHB to post a .375 wOBA while posting a 1.75 WHIP and 5.15 FIP against the platoon this year. Votto has been red hot with a .405/.488/.784 slash line while launching 4 HRs over his last 10 appearances and he’s worth the money despite playing at a pitcher-friendly venue.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) vs. DET DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,500
Another relatively cheap Boston bat with the platoon advantage against Eickhoff.
Wil Myers: (SD) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $3,600
Worth a look as one of the main components of a Padres longshot stack against veteran RHP Bronson Arroyo.
Yangervis Solarte: (SD) vs. CIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,100 as 3B
If there was ever a time for Bronson Arroyo to come through with a Quality Start, it would be on the road tonight against the league-worst Padres offense, but I’d rather bet against the showered 40-year-old RHP once again. San Diego has a couple of dangerous hitters despite their weak collective batting average and Solarte is batting .300 over the last 14 day, while he’ll have the platoon advantage against a RHP that has allowed LHB to post a .407 wOBA with a stunningly poor 4.07 HR/9 ratio when facing the platoon this year.
Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,300
If you’re going to stack Red Sox at Fenway, might as well go all the way.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. SEA DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,600
He’s been heating up and draws a plus matchup at home against struggling RHP Yovani Gallardo.
Yunel Escobar: (LAA) vs. NYY DK: $3,200 / FD: $3,100
Escobar is another hitter that should start the week fresh after resting on Sunday and he draws a surprisingly good matchup against struggling RHP Masahiro Tanaka, who has been lit up in consecutive starts after seemingly finding his groove in a plus matchup against Oakland a couple weeks ago. The Angels infielder is sporting a .333 batting average over his last 10 appearances and while he doesn’t carry much upside as a power hitter, he’s 3-for-7 with a double in his career against Tanaka and could continue to serve as a viable value play if the Yankees RHP struggles again.
Wilmer Flores: (NYM) @ CHC DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,800
Worth a look against struggling RHP John Lackey.
Eugenio Suarez: (CIN) @ SD DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,000
Another Reds bat worth consideration in a plus matchup against Arroyo.
Eduardo Escobar: (MIN) vs. SEA DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,700
He seems to flash big upside just about once a week for the boom-or-bust Twins offense and will definitely be worth a look if he’s in the lineup tonight against Gallardo. The Mariners RHP is sporting a 6.26 ERA with a 16.7% HR/FB ratio on the year after he posted a 1.75 WHIP with a 5.56 xFIP against the platoon last season. Escobar is a solid switch hitter with a career 28.2% Hard Contact Rate against RHP and he’s worth a look as a true value if the weather looks decent in Minnesota this evening.
Trevor Story: (COL) @ PIT DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,500
He’s surprisingly cheap in a decent road matchup against struggling sophomore Jameson Taillon.
Didi Gregorious: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300
Worth a look with the platoon advantage tonight against weak RHP Alex Meyer.
Aaron Judge: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $5,600 / FD: $4,800
Led by the white-hot young Judge, the Yankees are mashing right now and are tied with the Astros with a collective .389 wOBA atop the Majors over the last 2 weeks. Tonight they face a vulnerable young RHP in Alex Meyer, who is posting average numbers across the board this year after he struggled with a 1.71 WHIP and 1.29 HR/9 ratio in home starts last season. Matchups are hardly a concern for a Judge as he’s sporting an absurd .421/.542/.842 slash line with 4 doubles and 4 HRs over his last 10 appearances, while reaching base in 18 straight, so he’s simply worth the money if you can afford him.
Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) @ CHC DK: $4,400 / FD: $4,000
After returning to the Mets lineup with a bang on Saturday (a Grand Slam in fact) Cespedes was given Sunday off, but he’s expected to start tonight against a veteran RHP in John Lackey, who appears to be headed downhill at this stage in his career. Lackey’s been roughed up on the road and at home while posting a 2.05 HR/9 ratio and 5.06 FIP on the season, so he’s worth targeting with the Mets best power hitter. Cespedes has launched a HR and actually stolen two bases over 7 career at-bats against Lackey and he’s a bit under priced on DK as he comes back from injury.