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Plays of the Day
Value:Padres infielder Cory Spangenberg is too cheap and too enticing to ignore with a .429/.448/.714 slash line over his last 10 appearances. Spangenberg will have the platoon advantage tonight in a matchup against another aging RHP in Scott Feldman, who is giving up a 1.62 HR/9 ratio with a 5.18 FIP when facing lefties this season.
Fade: Aaron Judge has been the toast of the league over the past couple of weeks for good reason, and while I’m pretty sure he’ll continue to produce on a modest scale, I’m willing to fade him at a lofty price tag under the assumption that his homer-streak comes to an end in Anaheim this evening.
Team Target Stacks
Mariners: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Adam Lind, Anthony Rendon
Orioles: Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Dustin Pedroia
Padres: Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, Erick Aybar.
Chance of delays in Pittsburgh, New York (Mets), Cleveland and Minnesota tonight depending on how thunderstorm patterns develop
Clayton Kershaw: (LAD) @ CLE DK: $12,900/FD: $12,500
Any questions as to who the best SP in baseball is these days are getting squashed by Kershaw, as he managed to beat Brewers RHP Jimmy Nelson on his best day and outdueled Stephen Strasburg to post 23 K’s with just a pair of ERs allowed on a pair of solo HRs over his last 2 outings. He’s been even better on the road this year with a 1.96 ERA and .205 BAA away from Dodger Stadium and faces a lefty-heavy Indians lineup that’s hitting .236 with a weak .302 wOBA against LHP this season. Cleveland has almost no experience against the elite southpaw and will have to try to learn on the fly tonight.
Joe Ross: (WAS) vs. ATL DK: $7,200/FD: $8,300
If you’re paying up for Kershaw on DK you’re going to have to find some solid value plays for a 2nd SP and Ross is a great candidate for GPP lineups. Apparently the talented young righty’s struggles were primarily due to a nagging blister or the need to make adjustments, as he returned to elite form with 12 K’s and just 1 ER allowed in a 4-hit gem over 7 innings against the Orioles. Now he faces a Braves offense that’s less dangerous without Freddie Freeman available, although they got to Stephen Strasburg last night, but Ross could serve as a stopper for the elite Nationals.
Ty Blach: (SF) vs. KC DK: $6,600/FD: $8,300
Blach is an even more appealing value on DK tonight in a plus matchup and his modest results against the Brewers his last time out can be chalked up to a tougher draw. Now he faces a Royals offense that ranks dead last amongst A.L. teams with a collective .238 batting average and .296 wOBA while scoring the second-fewest runs (237) in the Majors this year. Blach was on a roll prior to his hiccup in Milwaukee as he’s been able to consistently elicit ground balls with a 51.9% GB Rate over 20 MLB appearances and hold opposing batters to a weak 17.9% Line Drive Rate during that span.
Jon Lester: (CHC) @ NYM DK: $8,800/FD: $9,400
How the mighty have fallen, from CY Young contender to a longshot against a light-hitting Mets team, yet Lester’s price tag reflects the risk that he’ll come with tonight. After 3 rough outings in a row, it’s tough to trust the veteran, but he’ll pitch at spacious Citi Field against a Mets lineup that’s batting a combined .243 (45-for-185) with 45 K’s over a massive sample in their careers against him. The Mets are sporting a collective .235 batting average with a 21.1% K-Rate when facing southpaws this season and Lester’s bound to turn it around soon.
Welington Castillo: (BAL) @ CWS DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,800
He got back on track last night with a single and run scored. Now Castillo is even cheaper ahead of a plus matchup against vulnerable LHP Derek Holland, who is sporting a 6.31 FIP and 2.20 HR/9 ratio when facing RHB this year. Baltimore leads the Majors with 26 HRs off lefties this season and Castillo’s been great with a .350 batting average and HR over 40 at-bats against LHP this season, along with a .361 wOBA in his career against the platoon. Give him a look as a quality mid-tier option.
Stephen Vogt: (OAK) @ MIA DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,400
Worth a look with the platoon advantage against RHP Jose Urena.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) vs. OAK DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,300
He’s rolling right now and faces a struggling young RHP in Jharel Cotton.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ DET DK: $5,400 / FD: $4,600
While Tigers young RHP Buck Farmer stepped in for a spot start and shut down the meager Angels offense, this road start represents an entirely different type of challenge. Goldschmidt can serve as the head of a D’Backs stack as per usual when they host a vulnerable righty, as he’s actually been better in RvR matchups with a .335 batting average and .457 wOBA against RHP this season. Farmer put up a 7.36 ERA with an 18.2% HR/FB ratio during his rookie year and posted a 5.23 FIP over 14 appearances (1 start) last season and will have a tough team retiring Goldy, who is on fire with a .406/.537/.719 slash line over his last 10 appearances.
Danny Valencia: (SEA) @ MIN DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,800
He came alive last night and draws a plus matchup against vulnerable RHP Kyle Gibson tonight.
Adam Lind (WAS) vs. ATL DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,900
Worth a look against knuckler R.A. Dickey if he draws another start for the injured Ryan Zimmerman.
Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,300
Pedroia has given the sputtering Red Sox offense a great lift as an on-base machine and he should be able to continue producing tonight in a plus matchup against RHP Ben Lively. The Phillies rookie has avoided serious damage through his first 2 MLB starts, but posted a 3.21 BB/9 ratio that will almost certainly lead to trouble at hitter-friendly Fenway. Pedroia is hitting .302 with a 39.2% Hard Contact Rate at home this season and the Laser Show could light up Fenway Park once again after logging 2 hits in 3 consecutive appearances.
Whit Merrifield: (KC) @ SF DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,200
Cheap again after a brief slump, Merrifield could produce with the platoon advantage against LHP Ty Blach.
Dee Gordon: (MIA) vs. OAK DK: $4,500 / FD: $2,900
Under priced on FD as per usual with plenty of speed upside against RHP Jharel Cotton.
Cory Spangenberg: (SD) vs. CIN DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,300 as 2B
Padres hitters are often neglected because of the teams overall weak perception on offense and their spacious home ballpark, but Spangenberg is too cheap and too enticing to ignore in another good matchup. He went 2-for-3 with a double against showered veteran Bronson Arroyo last night and is sporting a .429/.448/.714 slash line over his last 10 appearances. Spangenberg will have the platoon advantage once again in a matchup against another aging RHP in Scott Feldman, who is giving up a 1.62 HR/9 ratio with a 5.18 FIP when facing lefties this season.
Wilmer Flores: (NYM) vs. CHC DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,700
A lefty-killer with a chance to thrive if Jon Lester continues to struggle.
Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ MIA DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,400 as 1B
He’s swinging a hot bat right now and is a solid value on either main DFS site.
Corey Seager: (LAD) @ CLE DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,700
It seemed like only a matter of time before Seager regained his status as one of the best hitting young shortstops in the game and he’s certainly one of the best options on the board at a thin position tonight. He’ll matchup against Indians RHP Trevor Bauer, who is sporting a 6.10 ERA with a 20% HR/FB ratio on the year and is allowing LHB to post a 2.45 HR/9 ratio with a 39.8% Hard Contact Rate. Seager is 5-for-15 with 3 walks, 2 HRs and 6 RBIs over his last 4 appearances and he could stay hot in this matchup.
Erick Aybar: (SD) vs. CIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,200
Missed a Padres stack last night but is still going well and could hit Feldman this evening.
Didi Gregorious: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,300
He’s absolutely en fuego with a .463 batting average over his last 10 appearances and draws a good matchup tonight against converted reliever J.C. Ramirez.
Mookie Betts: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,700
While Yankees young phenom Aaron Judge justifiably gets all the attention after homering 4 times over his last 3 appearances, Betts could sneak in as a premier GPP play at the head of a Red Sox stack tonight. Ben Lively has posted good numbers in the Minors, but shown vulnerability against good MLB hitters and he’ll face one of the best lineups out there tonight, led by Betts, who is suddenly hot again with 8 hits- 5 of which were doubles – over his last 4 appearances. Betts can also provide upside with his speed and the combination of a rookie RHP and weak defensive catcher in Andrew Knapp (or Cameron Rupp) will do little to deter him from stealing.
Mitch Haniger: (SEA) @ MIN DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,000
Everyone’s favorite value play is back! And while he’s no longer priced at the minimum on FanDuel, Haniger can still serve as a cheap addition to a Mariners stack against consistently vulnerable RHP Kyle Gibson. The Twins SP managed to turn in his 2nd Quality Start of the year against a depleted Mariners lineup, but might struggle in another meeting with Seattle now that Haniger is back while Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano are also healthier. With a .353 batting average and .444 wOBA against RHP, Haniger was one of the hottest hitters in baseball prior to his oblique injury and he started to regain his rhythm in a plus matchup last night.