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Plays of the Day
Value: The Cardinals face a vulnerable veteran RHP in Matt Garza, who has given up 11 ER with an 11:6 K:BB ratio over his last 3 outings and has had plenty of trouble with the Red Birds lineup. Aledyms Diaz is 2-for-4 with a double over a small sample of at-bats against Garza and he’s a very solid value right now on both main DFS sites as he continues to hit for average with the occasional flash of power.
Fade: Corey Kluber danced around trouble to post solid DFS numbers in his last outing and the Dodgers have been struggling a bit, but Corey Seager is breaking out of his slump and Cody Bellinger caught fire to stand out as 2 elite platooning options that may give Klubes some trouble.
Team Target Stacks
Rangers: Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Adrian Beltre
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Jake Lamb
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Twins: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler.
Chance of delays in Chicago (White Sox) tonight.
Michael Pineda: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $11,100/FD: $8,700
Pineda is clearly a more appealing value on FD tonight, but he could wind up as one of the top producers overall with very few true aces on the board tonight. The Yankees pitching staff has been a pleasant surprise with Pineda and Luis Severino starring amongst others, but it’s that offense that has carried them to first place and could provide ample run support tonight. Despite his weak road splits, Pineda should be able to limit an Angels lineup that’s sporting the fourth-lowest collective wOBA (.303) this season after the Halos made Masahiro Tanaka look like his old self two nights ago. Pineda’s one bug-a-boo is a 21% HR/FB ratio, but without Mike Trout in the Angels lineup, they’re unlikely to go yard on him.
Ervin Santana: (MIN) vs. SEA DK: $10,300/FD: $9,500
After a surprising implosion at the Angels, Santana got back to his dominant ways with a complete-game four-hitter at San Francisco. He’s been absolutely elite this year with a 2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .154 BAA and will definitely be worth a look at home against an inconsistent Mariners offense. He might be more of a GPP play tonight because current Mariners have tagged him for 11 HRs in their careers, but he’s posting a 9.4% HR/FB ratio over his last four seasons and is no longer the young SP that gave up all those bombs.
Brian Johnson: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $6,500/FD: $6,900
The Tigers were able to grind out lengthy at-bats against Johnson in his return to the Red Sox rotation and sap all fantasy value out of his last outing, but that doesn’t mean you have to fade him at the same cheap price tag. He draws a much better matchup tonight against a Phillies team that’s sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.276) in the Majors by far over the last 30 days and hitting just .232 off LHP this season. Boston is a quality stacking option against Phillies struggling RHP Jeremy Hellickson and that increases Johnson’s upside if he can last long enough to qualify for a win.
Francisco Liriano: (TOR) vs. TB DK: $5,800/FD: $7,300
You never know what you’re going to get out of Liriano, and that makes him a true longshot. The Blue Jays southpaw has provided mixed results with a poor overall 5.87 ERA, but he’s sporting a 9.39 K/9 ratio and has exceeded value whenever he’s able to pull it together for a Quality Start. Tonight he’ll host a Rays offense that’s sporting the third-lowest collective batting average (.224) with the second-highest K-Rate (26.6%) in the Majors when facing LHP this season and he’s had success in the past against that lineup.
Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) @ HOU DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,600
While the Astros are usually the offense to target, and they’ll be worth stacking against vulnerable RHP Andrew Cashner, the visiting Rangers draw an even better matchup tonight. Houston’s rotation is shorthanded with Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers injured and that’s forced Martes into a spot start after he was tagged for 4 ER over 3.2 innings of relief in his MLB debut last Friday. Lucroy is coming around after a very slow start and he’s logged 3 hits over his last 2 appearances ahead of a plus matchup at a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Christian Vazquez: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $2,800 / FD: $2,500
Worth a look as part of a Red Sox stack against RHP Jeremy Hellickson.
Brian McCann: (HOU) vs. TEX DK: $4,400 / FD: $3,400
The Astros are also a formidable stacking option of course against Cashner.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) @ NYM DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,100
Rizzo seemed benefit immediately after moving into the leadoff spot, as he launched a HR and double while the Cubs put up 14 runs last night. Now they’ll face a much more vulnerable RHP in Matt Harvey, who appears to be washed up with a 5.02 ERA and 5.85 FIP through 12 starts this season. Lefties are sporting a 2.15 HR/9 ratio and 5.52 BB/9 ratio when facing Harvey this season and Rizzo is a powerful lefty who could get things started by patiently drawing walks or swinging for the fences.
Miguel Cabrera: (DET) vs. ARI DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,600
Can’t remember the last time Miggy was this cheap on DK.
Mitch Moreland: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,500
It’s been Moreland, and not Hanley Ramirez, playing the role of a poor man’s David Ortiz this year.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. SEA DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,900
The Twins offense also erupted for 20 runs on franchise-record 28 hits last night and Dozier sparked it with a double and HR out of the leadoff spot. He’s been awesome for Minnesota in that role and is now sporting a .348/.416/.642 slash line over his last 10 appearances. The Twins are a decent stacking option tonight against rookie RHP Sam Gaviglio, who is sporting a 4.85 ERA with a 7.11 FIP over 3 road starts this year. Gaviglio’s been more vulnerable in RvR matchups so far and Dozier is a versatile righty that can burn him in several ways from the top of the order.
Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) vs. PHI DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,000
After another multi-hit performance Pedroia is an easy value to consider.
Robinson Cano: (SEA) @ MIN DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,100
With a stunning 6 HRs in his career off Ervin Santana, Cano is worth a look as a stand-alone GPP option.
Josh Donaldson: (TOR) vs. TB DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,300
He’s finding his rhythm again after missing significant time this season and Donaldson draws a familiar matchup at home tonight against Rays RHP Jake Odorizzi. The Rays SP is coughing up a career-worst 18.2% HR/FB ratio with a 5.04 FIP on the season and Donaldson happens to be 5-for-20 with 4 HRs in his career against Odorizzi. With a .378/.477/.838 slash line and 5 bombs over his last 10 appearances, Donaldson is raking like an MVP again and is priced accordingly.
Jedd Gyorko: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,200
Worth a look against struggling veteran RHP Matt Garza.
Evan Longoria: (TB) @ TOR DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,600
If you want to bet against Liriano, use a RHB in Longoria who can thrive with the platoon advantage in this matchup.
Aledyms Diaz: (STL) vs. MIL DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,800
The Cardinals might be a little gassed after their doubleheader yesterday, but that could also open the door for a couple of true values to enter the lineup if veterans get some rest. In any case, they’ll be facing a vulnerable veteran RHP in Matt Garza, who has given up 11 ER with an 11:6 K:BB ratio over his last 3 outings and has had plenty of trouble with the Red Birds lineup. Diaz is 2-for-4 with a double over a small sample of at-bats against Garza and he’s a very solid value right now on both main DFS sites as he continues to hit for average with the occasional flash of power.
Nick Ahmed: (ARI) @ DET DK: $3,000 / FD: $2,600
The Diamondbacks could be all over vulnerable RHP Jordan Zimmerman tonight.
Didi Gregorious: (NYY) @ LAA DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,500
Still one of the hottest hitters in the Majors and he’ll have the platoon advantage against RHP Matt Shoemaker.
Charlie Blackmon: (COL) @ PIT DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,800
Pirates young RHP Chad Kuhl has been far more vulnerable against lefties, as LHB are sporting a .434 wOBA with a 1.78 HR/9 ratio off him this year. That bodes well for Colorado’s elite leadoff man in Blackmon, who has been a great dual threat with 24 XBHs, 15 HRs and 5 SBs so far this year. The Rockies are actually leading the Majors with 24 road wins this year and Blackmon’s been a big part of that with a .285 batting average and 104 wRC+ away from Coors.
Shin-soo Choo: (TEX) @ HOU DK: $4,400 / FD: $4,000
The Rangers have several dangerous platooning options to consider tonight against Martes, who allowed LHB to hit .355 at the AAA level this season. While he was cold last night as Rougned Odor put on a show with multiple HRs, Choo was 4-for-14 with 2 HRs over his previous 4 appearances and he’s at a nice price point on DK ahead of this plus matchup. A disciplined hitter with the ability to spray to all fields, Choo should be productive against a rookie making his first MLB start.