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Plays of the Day
Value: Miguel Cabrera is still dramatically under priced on DK with multiple hits in 4 consecutive appearances, including 4 doubles and a HR last night, he’s hitting like the former MVP candidate that he is and he draws another plus matchup tonight against vulnerable Rays RHP Erasmo Ramirez.
Fade: Nolan Arenado had a huge game last night against LH starter and he’s at home against a RHP in Jeff Samardzija that he’s owned, but you could still fade him considering he’s been much less effective in RvR matchups and how Samardzija can lock in when he’s on.
Team Target Stacks
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
Nationals: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
Cubs: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Jon Jay, Jayson Heyward
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez
Chance of rain delays in Baltimore tonight.
Max Scherzer: (WAS) @ NYM DK: $12,900/FD: $12,400
Gio Gonzalez looked good last night against the inconsistent Mets lineup and now the Nationals send a true ace to the mound against their divisional rivals. Scherzer’s been the most appealing play in DFS with 48 K’s and just 4 ER allowed over his last 4 outings (32 IP), going 3-1 in the process. He’s simply been untouchable with a 15.6% Swing-and-miss Strike Rate and 34.6% Swinging Rate outside the zone that have been the key to his success throughout his career. Current Mets are sporting a collective 35% K-Rate over 131 career at-bats against Scherzer and have been relatively strikeout-prone lately.
Alex Wood: (LAD) @ CIN DK: $9,100/FD: $8,600
Wood’s been consistently stellar, yet he remains quite affordable on both main DFS sites. While his pitch count remains low on a start-by-start basis, he’s doing enough damage during his 5-7 innings of work with a huge jump in his strikeout numbers (11.24 K/9 ratio) and an excellent 1.89 FIP to go along with his 2.01 ERA on the season. Tonight he faces a Reds lineup that depends on lefty slugger Joey Votto to spark things and current Reds are hitting just .226 (7-for-31) with 6 K’s and just 1 XBH in their careers, so they don’t pose too much of a tough matchup on the road for Wood.
Joe Biagini: (TOR) vs. CWS DK: $6,900/FD: $7,700
Biagini has been solid by most metrics with a 2.86 FIP and 21.4% K-Rate to make his 3.38 ERA through 21 appearances even more impressive. He’s been great since moving from the bullpen into the rotation and faces a White Sox offense tonight that’s struggled against RHP with the lowest collective wOBA (.300) against righties amongst A.L. teams this year and a 22.8% K-Rate to boot. Biagini has only given up 3 ER (1.01 ERA) with a .177 BAA over 10 appearances at Rogers Centre and seems to be a great value option tonight.
James Paxton: (SEA) @ TEX DK: $8,800/FD: $8,700
He struggled in his last two outings against Twins and Blue Jays lineups that really can slug off lefties, but Paxton could rebound against a lefty-heavy Rangers lineup tonight. Texas is sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.285) in the A.L. with the highest K-Rate (27%) in the majors against LHP this year and therefore it’s pretty hard to beat the matchup for Paxton. Current Rangers have struck out 21 times over 99 at-bats with just 2 HRs to post a .315 wOBA in their careers against Paxton, who is still sporting a respectable 2.25 ERA with a 10.04 K/9 ratio to add upside to his stellar potential.
J.T. Realmuto: (MIA) @ ATL DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,200
I don’t know if a full Marlins stack will work tonight, but a couple of elite RHB have a chance to put up big numbers in this matchup. The Braves are starting a rookie southpaw in Sean Newcomb, who posted good numbers in the Minors over the last two years but will now have to contend with the best hitters on the planet. Realmuto’s been great lately with 5 XBH and 2 HRs over his last 10 appearances and he’s hitting .324 with an impressive .457 wOBA and .324 ISO Mark against lefties this year.
Yan Gomes: (CLE) vs. MIN DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,500
Could serve as a cheap addition to an Indians stack against rookie LHP Nik Turley.
Willson Contreras: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $3,300 / FD: $2,400
Maybe Contreras breaks out of his slump tonight in a plus matchup against young RHP Trevor Williams.
Miguel Cabrera: (DET) vs. TB DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,800
A Tigers stack begins with Cabrera on DK, where he’s still dramatically under priced and worth a look as a stand-alone option as well. With multiple hits in 4 consecutive appearances, including 4 doubles and a HR last night, he’s hitting like the former MVP candidate that he is and he draws another plus matchup tonight. Detroit hosts a consistently vulnerable RHP in Rays RHP Erasmo Ramirez, who has posted a 4.20 ERA with a 35.3% Hard Contact Rate and he’s allowed RHB to hit .270 this year, which bodes well for the Tigers righty-heavy lineup.
Carlos Santana: (CLE) @ MIN DK: $3,300 / FD: $3,200
Worth a look as a value addition to an Indians stack, while Edwin Encarnacion might be the better GPP play.
Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $4,600 / FD: $4,400
With homers in consecutive appearances as the Cubs leadoff man, Rizzo is back.
Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. BOS DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,900
Red Sox southpaw Drew Pomeranz simply doesn’t pitch with much deception, as he leans on a fastball/curveball combination that’s made him easy for batters to time up this year. Pomeranz is coughing up a 16.7% HR/FB ratio and a career-worst 35.5% Hard Contact Rate this year ahead of a brutal matchup on the road against the hottest team in baseball. Altuve’s certainly been at the vanguard of Houston’s production with a .320 batting average and 11 SBs to go along with 9 HRs and 19 XBH this year, while he’s hitting .342 in his career against LHP and happens to be 5-for-12 off Pomeranz.
Whit Merrifield: (KC) @ LAA DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,500
He’s heating up again and is still a bargain at this price tag.
Ian Kinsler: (DET) vs. TB DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,500
Worth adding to a Tigers stack against Erasmo Ramirez.
Josh Donaldson: (TOR) vs. CWS DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,100
It’s a tough call between Donaldson and Kris Bryant at the same price tag on DK tonight, but I lean towards the Blue Jays MVP, who is turning around their poor fortunes against LHP this season by getting back in the lineup. Donaldson is hitting .375 with a .493 wOBA against lefties this season and happens to own White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, as he’s 5-for-11 with a HR against the soft-tosser. Quintana is struggling this year and Donaldson comes into this matchup red hot with a 1.134 OPS over his last 10 appearances.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ NYM DK: $3,500 / FD: $3,600
Too much upside against a rusty LHP to be priced this low.
Adrian Beltre: (TEX) vs. SEA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,300
One of few Rangers with plus splits against Paxton as he’s killed lefties throughout his career.
Corey Seager: (LAD) @ CIN DK: $4,800 / FD: $3,700
Seager’s clearly an elite option once again and he faces a vulnerable RHP tonight at Great American Ballpark, which has one of the highest HR Factors for LHB in the Majors. Scott Feldman is posting a 6.45 FIP with a 2.10 HR/9 ratio when facing lefties and Seager is 2-for-5 off him, while Cody Bellinger has also homered and you could form a great mini-stack with those two lefty sluggers and Justin Turner. Seager is 9-for-21 over his last 5 appearances and the power will come from him in the right spots.
Javier Baez: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,200 as 2B
Solid value addition to a Cubs stack against Trevor Williams.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ MIN DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,500
Expect the switch hitter to break out of his slump tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton: (MIA) @ ATL DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,-00
He’s understandably been more dangerous with a .302 batting average and 8 HRs over 32 road appearances this season and Stanton could be deadly against Braves young LHP Sean Newcomb. The rookie looked impressive against the struggling Mets in his MLB debut, but now he faces a slugger who is sporting a .385 average with a .570 wOBA and ridiculous .590 ISO Mark against the platoon this year. Stanton’s been raking lately and he could serve as the heart of a Marlins stack this evening.
Jon Jay: (CHC) @ PIT DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,000
We could also see Jayson Heyward start in this plus spot against Pirates RHP Trevor Williams, but both players could be worth a look as values if they platoon against him. Williams is sporting a 5.13 ERA and allowing LHB to hit .287 so far this season after coughing up 3 HRs over just 22 at-bats against lefties last year. Jay is hitting .348 over his last 10 appearances and while he hasn’t flashed much upside, he’s been a solid contributor and could jump in on a couple of rallies as a minimum-priced option on FanDuel.