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Plays of the Day
Value: Rays OF Mallex Smith is rolling right now with a .438 batting average and 4 BB to reach base consistently before adding 4 SBs over his last 10 appearances. He’s quite cheap on both main DFS sites and will have the platoon advantage today against hobbled RHP Michael Fulmer.
Fade: I’m alright with fading the top 2 SPs on the board for the early slate, as Stephen Strasburg showed some weakness in his last outing and has struggled against the Mets, while Chris Archer faces a surging Tigers offense on the road.
Team Target Stacks
Indians: Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Gregor Blanco
Chance of rain delays in Baltimore today.
Chase Anderson: (MIL) vs. SD DK: $9,600/FD: $9,300
If you agree about fading the top 2 SPs today, then Anderson makes sense as the de facto top option. He started the year on a great note, struggled consistently, and is back on his game with 30 K’s, just 14 hits and 1 ER allowed over his last 4 outings (27.2 IP). Anderson’s been great at home with a 1.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and tonight he’ll face the lowly Padres, who are still ranked dead last in terms of collective batting average (.229), 29th in wOBA (.293) while sporting the second-highest K-Rate (25.4%) in the Majors this year.
Zack Godley: (ARI) @ PHI DK: $8,400/FD: $7,800
A relatively similar option to Anderson, Godley is another solid young RHP with excellent numbers over his last several outings. And like Anderson, he’s facing a weak offense team in the Phillies, who are sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.270) and batting average (.220) over the last 30 days. With a 2.44 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 7 appearances this year, Godley’s certainly been pitching well enough for the D’Backs elite offense to support him with runs and improve on his modest 2-1 record.
Ivan Nova: (PIT) vs. CHC DK: $7,100/FD: $8,200 (Evening)
It’s tempting to roll with Jake Arrieta if you’re playing the All-Day or late slate this Saturday, but Nova comes at a much, much cheaper price tag and is almost equally set up for success. The Cubs offense is coming around with Anthony Rizzo and Ian Happ raking at the top of the lineup, but Nova’s been better against the platoon lately, as he’s holding lefties to a modest .300 wOBA with a 1.17 WHIP on the season. Current Cubs are just 3-for-15 (.200) with 3 meager singles in a small sample against Nova, who has posted a 2.29 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 6 home starts.
Masahiro Tanaka: (NYY) @ OAK DK: $8,600/FD: $8,400
He’s been the definition of boom or bust lately, as Tanaka’s exceeded value by a wide margin in 2 of his last 4 starts, while he coughed up 12 ER and 4 HRs in 2 starts in between. Yet the positive results have been somewhat predictable against lineups that lack power, and now he’ll face the same A’s team that he held to 1 ER with 13 K’s in a start late last month to reassert his relevancy. Oakland is ranked 27th in batting average (.241) with a 24.6% K-Rate this year and the Coliseum is a massive ballpark that covers up mistakes with fly balls.
Tyler Flowers: (ATL) vs. MIA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,100
After another productive appearance last night, Flowers is a very solid option to consider with the platoon advantage against LHP Jeff Locke. The Marlins new SP is struggling with a 4.02 ERA and 4.35 xFIP while giving up a 31.4% Hard Contact to RHBs this year and Flowers is hitting .385 with a 36.6% Hard Contact Rate against LHP on the season. He doubled off Locke in their last meeting and is a solid candidate with upside this afternoon.
Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) vs. SEA DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,800
Perfect cash game option for the smaller night slate this Saturday.
Mike Zunino: (SEA) @ TEX DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,200
He’s been on a tear lately and has the platoon advantage against LHP Martin Perez tonight.
Edwin Encarnacion: (CLE) @ MIN DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,700
Encarnacion flashed his scary power last night by going Yabo off Twins rookie LHP Nik Turley on a ball that he didn’t even barrel up, but managed to hit the upper deck in LF. He’s now sporting a .284 batting average and .407 wOBA with 5 HRs over 74 at-bats against lefties this year and faces another rookie LHP tonight in Adam Wilk, who gave up 6 ER and 2 HRs over his last 3 starts in the Minors before getting this opportunity. With a .364/.475/.788 slash line over his last 10 appearances, E5 is getting back to his old dominant ways.
Danny Valencia: (SEA) @ TEX DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,000
Worth a look against LHP Martin Perez despite Valencia’s recent struggles.
Eric Thames: (MIL) vs. SD DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,600
With homers in 3 consecutive appearances, Thames is a strong GPP play against rookie RHP Dinelson Lamet.
Whit Merrifield: (KC) @ LAA DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,600 (Evening)
Those playing the late slate will need to find some salary relief and Merrifield is a very solid mid-tier play with a great floor in tonight’s matchup. He’s rebounded from a brief rough patch to log 8 hits over his last 4 appearances and the Royals big bats in the middle of that lineup are coming alive behind him. Tonight they could be all over straightforward young RHP Alex Meyer, who is coughing up a 30.8% Line Drive Rate when facing RHB this season and is not very adept at holding on potential base stealers.
Paul DeJong: (STL) @ BAL DK: $3,100 / FD: $2,100
Worth a look against LHP Wade Miley after launching a 3-run HR last night.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. CLE DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,700
The red-hot Twins lineup could be all over rookie LHP Ryan Merritt today.
Jake Lamb: (ARI) @ PHI DK: $5,200 / FD: $4,100
The Diamondbacks make for a solid mini-stack to pair with solid young RHP Zack Godley, as they should be able to produce against struggling Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff. The young RHP is sporting a rough 5.09 ERA and allowing LHB to hit .296 with a .370 wOBA and 1.64 HR/9 ratio this year, so Lamb could definitely lead this dangerous lineup on the road. He’s hitting for more average but less power on the road, yet he’s 4-for-10 with 3 walks and a SB on this current road trip at travels to a venue in Citizens Bank Ballpark that has a high HR Factor for lefties.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ NYM DK: $3,700 / FD: $3,700
Still very much under priced on DK after homering in a great outing last night.
Justin Turner: (LAD) @ CIN DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,600
Always a quality option against a weak RH starter.
Trevor Story: (COL) vs. SF DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,500
For some reason, Story is consistently cheaper than the rest of the Rockies when they hit at Coors Field even though he’s consistently flashed more power in the thin air over the last 2 seasons. His average has been very disappointing this year, but he has a great opportunity to flash his sporadic upside with weak RHP Matt Cain coming to town. The Giants veteran’s sporting an awful 8.40 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP and 1.80 HR/9 ratio on the road and he’s been more vulnerable against RHB this year, so feel free to stack against him at hitter-friendly Coors.
JT Riddle: (MIA) @ ATL DK: $2,900 / FD: $2,600
Worth a look with the platoon advantage today against LHP Jaime Garcia.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ MIN DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,400
He reached 3 times last night and is a quality option once again as a switch hitter against a rookie southpaw.
Cody Bellinger: (LAD) @ CIN DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,900
He’s been one of the most dangerous LHB in the game over the last month or so and today Bellinger faces a vulnerable RHP in Asher Wojchiechowski. The Reds SP is sporting a 5.21 ERA with a matching 5.29 FIP and 1.89 HR/9 ratio and Bellinger will have the platoon advantage against him at the ballpark with the highest HR Factor in the N.L. for lefties. With 6 HRs over his last 10 appearances and a .338 ISO Mark against the platoon this year, Bellinger is clearly worth the money as a high-upside play.
Mitch Haniger: (SEA) @ TEX DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,500 (Evening)
A great option in any format for this evening’s slate, Haniger will have the platoon advantage against Rangers soft-tossing LHP Martin Perez. He’s been fantastic regardless of matchups this year with a .327 batting average and 1.008 OPS while he’s been even hotter since coming off the DL last week with 7 hits over his last 5 appearances. Perez is sporting a 4.80 ERA and 5.03 FIP while coughing up a 37.6% Hard Contact Rate at home this season and that’s not a recipe for success against a slugging Mariners lineup.