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Plays of the Day
Value: Astros catcher Brian McCann has been crushing baseballs recently with a .368 batting average and 3 HRs over his last 10 appearances and he’s reasonably priced despite facing arguably the weakest SP on the slate. He’s actually flashed more power with a .395 wOBA and .247 ISO Mark on the road this season and is strong enough to lift one out of Oakland Coliseum.
Fade: Nelson Cruz is going through one of his power outages again, and while he’s had success against Tigers RHP Anibal Sanchez, I might go with a Mariners stack that avoids their biggest bat in contrarian style.
Team Target Stacks
Mariners: Danny Valencia, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Mike Zunino
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
Astros: Jose Altuve, Brian McCann, Carlos Correa
Red Sox: Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia
Chance of rain delays in Baltimore and Atlanta tonight, hopefully just a delayed start for the Orioles-Indians game.
Clayton Kershaw: (LAD) vs. NYM DK: $13,500/FD: $12,500
The Mets simply can’t catch a break, as they go from facing one elite ace to another tonight in Kershaw. While the Indians managed to scratch out 2 runs off Kershaw and he’s given up a HR in 3 consecutive, he’s still clearly one of the stingiest starters out there with a 2.97 xFIP and 1.48 BB/9 ratio on the season. Current Mets are hitting .187 (17-for-91) with 28 K’s and a pathetic .226 wOBA in their careers against Kershaw and they’re ranked 23rd in batting average (.234) and 26th in wOBA (.294) when facing LHP this season. Kershaw’s also been even stingier with a 0.88 WHIP and .202 BAA at home this year.
Corey Kluber: (CLE) @ BAL DK: $11,700/FD: $10,300
While the Orioles bats came alive during a slugfest win over the Cardinals on Saturday, they’ve struggled for the most part with the second-lowest batting average (.251) and second-highest K-Rate (25%) amongst A.L. teams over the last 30 days. Kluber’s found his groove again with 28 K’s to 4 walks while going 2-0 over his last 2 outings and it seems as though his health was the biggest hurdle for him earlier this season. Current O’s are sporting a 30.1% K-Rate over 73 career plate appearances against Kluber, giving him plenty of upside if you can’t quite afford Kershaw.
Hector Velazquez: (BOS) @ KC DK: $5,500/FD: $5,600
At the bottom of the barrel tonight, you have a young Red Sox prospect who is quite a question mark. Yet the fact that Velazquez only lasted 50 pitches in his last appearance does not indicate that he’s on any strict pitch count ahead of a plus matchup against a Royals squad that’s sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.301) with the fewest runs scored (269) amongst A.L. teams this year. The 28-year-old from Mexico posted a 1.41 ERA with a .189 BAA over 9 starts at the AAA level this year and he could pay off his modest price tag tonight.
Gerrit Cole: (PIT) @ MIL DK: $7,500/FD: $8,300
Cole got back to his status as a high-upside play by allowing just 1 ER on 3 hits over 7 dominant innings against the league-leading Rockies last Tuesday. He’ll look to build on that momentum in a plus matchup against a Brewers team that’s sporting the second-highest K-Rate (25.3%) in the Majors this year. Current Brewers are just 2-for-22 (.091) with 5 K’s over a small sample of at-bats against Cole and that lineup is less fearsome with Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun out, while they’re generally more effective against lefties.
Brian McCann: (HOU) @ OAK DK: $3,800 / FD: $3,500
There are plenty of batters ready to jump in on any rallies off A’s rookie starter Daniel Gossett, and McCann is one of the best options with the platoon advantage in this matchup. McCann has been crushing baseballs recently with a .368 batting average and 3 HRs over his last 10 appearances and he’s reasonably priced despite facing arguably the weakest SP on the slate. He’s actually flashed more power with a .395 wOBA and .247 ISO Mark on the road this season and is strong enough to lift one out of Oakland Coliseum.
Christian Vazquez: (BOS) @ KC DK: $2,700 / FD: $2,400
Great value option against Royals struggling RHP Jason Hammel.
Mike Zunino: (SEA) vs. DET DK: $4,100 / FD: $3,400
He’s been raking lately and faces a very vulnerable RHP tonight in Anibal Sanchez.
Joey Votto: (CIN) @ TB DK: $4,700 / FD: $4,600
Rays RHP Jake Odorizzi has been a bit of a train wreck lately with a 4.94 ERA while coughing up 15 walks over his last 6 outings and Odorizzi’s given up at least one HR in 9 consecutive appearances. That bodes well for Joey Votto and the rest of the Reds with power, as they could serve as a productive stack considering Odorizzi is sporting a notable 2.29 HR/9 ratio when facing RHB this year. While Votto will use the platoon advantage, he’s been quite elite with a .406 wOBA and .981 OPS against RHP this season.
Miguel Cabrera: (DET) @ SEA DK: $4,000 / FD: $3,900
Still a bargain on DK ahead of a solid matchup against Sam Gaviglio.
Danny Valencia: (SEA) vs. DET DK: $3,400 / FD: $3,000
A cheap addition to a Mariners stack with plenty of upside against Anibal Sanchez.
Jose Altuve: (HOU) @ OAK DK: $5,100 / FD: $4,300
He’s been on a tear lately and Altuve clearly stands out as the premier play with the white-hot Astros facing an inexperienced young SP tonight. Athletics rookie Daniel Gosset coughed up 7 runs (6 earned) and 2 HRs over 6 IP in his MLB debut last Wednesday and while he posted decent numbers throughout his Minor League career, he faces an entirely different beast tonight in the Astros. Altuve is 7 for his last 10 with a HR and SB and he’s actually been more dangerous in RvR matchups this year with a .335 batting average and .394 wOBA against RHP.
Logan Forsythe: (LAD) vs. NYM DK: $3,200/FD: $2,200 as 3B
Starting to slowly come around for the Dodgers and he’s still quite cheap.
Robinson Cano: (SEA) vs. DET DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,300
Just keep stacking Mariners against showered RHP Anibal Sanchez.
Justin Turner: (LAD) vs. NYM DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,600
At an even cheaper price tag, Turner remains a fantastic play after launching a 3-run HR in a narrow win on Father’s Day. He’ll face a much better RHP tonight in Zack Wheeler, yet the Mets young starter was rocked for 8 ER over 1.2 IP in his last outing to raise his ERA to 4.48 and he draws a tough matchup on the road against the red-hot Dodgers. Turner’s been at the heart of that streak with a .457/.548/.686 slash line and more walks (5) than K’s (4) over his last 10 appearances, while he’s hitting .434 at home against righties this season.
Adrian Beltre: (TEX) vs. TOR DK: $3,900 / FD: $3,300
Worth using in the hopes that Marco Estrada implodes once again for visiting Toronto.
Anthony Rendon: (WAS) @ MIA DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,800
Plenty of upside now that the Marlins are starting young LHP Justin Nicolino.
Xander Bogaerts: (BOS) @ KC DK: $4,500 / FD: $3,400
The Sox will look to rebound from a competitive series against the elite Astros by picking on struggling Kansas City and a SP in Hammel, who is sporting a 5.05 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP during what has been the worst season of his career thus far. Hammel is allowing RHB to hit .297 with a 1.61 WHIP when facing righties this year, so Bogaerts has a higher floor than usual tonight with more upside alongside Mookie Betts and the feisty Dustin Pedroia. He came alive late last night to homer twice in a narrow win over Houston and should be locked in to start the next series.
JT Riddle: (MIA) vs. WAS DK: $2,500 / FD: $2,600
Very low upside, but a solid punt play at this price tag against a RHP in Tanner Roark who tends to allow contact.
Corey Seager: (LAD) vs. NYM DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,700
A dangerous LHB who could tag young RHP Zack Wheeler.
Mitch Haniger: (SEA) vs. DET DK: $4,300 / FD: $3,500
The Mariners struggling offense gets a chance to catch fire tonight with weak RHP Anibal Sanchez coming to town, as the veteran is sporting a 9.00 ERA with a 25.7% HR/FB ratio over 11 relief appearances after poisting a 5.87 ERA last season. Sanchez allowed RHB to hit .299 with a .372 wOBA last season and faces a righty in Hangier, who is sporting a 32.5% Hard Contact Rate and .330 batting average on the season. Haniger’s been great since returning from a long stay on the DL and he’s slashing .368/.478/.536 at home this season.
Mallex Smith: (TB) vs. CIN DK: $3,600 / FD: $2,600
Smith is rolling right now with a .410 batting average and 5 SBs to go along with 4 walks over his last 10 appearances. He remains a great bargain on FanDuel and draws a good matchup tonight against veteran RHP Scott Feldman, who has given up 4 ERs in 3 of his last 4 outings. Feldman is allowing LHB to post a .355 wOBA with a 5.39 FIP against the platoon and Smith has elite upside due to his speed as well as his ability to hit for average from the left side of the dish.