ScoutSouth.com: Scoreboard Predictions
Last year's playoff experience. How did the current playoff teams do last year? Three Sweet Water (1A), Leroy (2A), Prattville (6A) won the state championship. Two lost in the finals, Clay County (3A), Thomasville (4A). Two lost in the semi-finals, Maplesville (1A), Vestavia (6A). Five lost in the quarter-finals, Colbert County (3A), St. Paul's (5A), Fyffe (2A), McGill-Toolen (6A), Talladega County Central(1A).
Five teams lost in 2006's round two, Red Bay (2A), Brooks (4A), Cullman (5A), Cordova (3A), American Christian (2A). Six lost in round one, Calera (3A), Briarwood Christian (5A), Deshler (4A), Williamson (5A), Sulligent (1A), Central Tuscaloosa(4A) and one did not make the playoffs at all, Spain Park (6A).
All of this means there are five finalists from last season still alive in this year's state championship race. Three of them are returning State Champions. Class 5A does not have a finalist from last season in the playoffs.
Last year's playoff win-loss records for the remaining teams by class: 1A (10-3 77%), 2A (9-3 75%), 3A (7-4 64%), 4A (5-3 63%), 5A (3-4 43%), 6A (10-3 77%). Class 1A and 6A has the most playoff experienced teams.
Rematches from last year's playoffs: 1A - Sweet Water defeated Maplesville 26-8 in the semi-finals
2A - Fyffe defeated Red Bay 37-7 in Round 2
3A - Clay Count defeated Colbert County 53-21 in the quarter-finals.
4A - Thomasville defeated Central-Tuscaloosa 33-32 in overtime of Round 1
6A - Prattville defeated McGill-Toolen 38-7 in the quarter-finals
Last year's playoff results:
(1A) - Sweet Water won the state championship, Maplesville lost in the Semis, Talladega Co.-Central lost in the Quarters, Sulligent lost in Round 1.
(2A) - Leroy won the state championship, Fyffe lost in the Quarters, Red Bay and American Christian lost in Round 2.
(3A) - Clay County lost in the Finals, Colbert County lost in the Quarters, Cordova lost in Round 2, Calera lost in Round 1.
(4A) - Thomasville lost in the Finals, Brooks lost in Round 2, Central-Tuscaloosa and Deshler lost in Round 1.
(5A) - St. Paul's lost in the Quarters, Cullman lost in Round 2, Briarwood Christian and Williamson lost in Round 1.
(6A) - Prattville won the state championship, Vestavia lost in the Semis, McGill-Toolen lost in the Quarters, Spain Park failed to make the playoffs.
Who's Hot! (Last 3 games, listed by rank 1, 2, 3, 4)
(1A) - Sulligent, Sweet Water, Talladega Co.-Central, Maplesville
(2A) - Red Bay, American Christian, Leroy, Fyffe
(3A) - Colbert County, Clay County, Cordova, Calera
(4A) - Deshler, Central-Tuscaloosa, Thomasville, Brooks
(5A) - Williamson, St.Paul's, Briarwood, Cullman
(6A) - Vestavia Hills, Spain Park, McGill-Toolen, Prattville
Last week's picks were on par with the rest of the playoffs and with the high stakes games remaining nothing will surprise me. Don't forget to visit www.yratings.com for more details on the predictions.
Playoff prediction results:
Quarter-finals (20-4 83%)
All playoff games (145-23 86%)
- 1A - (prediction results: 24-4 86%)
No.1 Sweet Water (12-0) over No.2 Maplesville (12-0) by 13 points
Sweet Water's No.1 offense versus Maplesville's No.4 defense and Maplesville's No.2 offense versus Sweet Water's No.2 defense. Sweet Water has the No.1 toughest schedule to Maplesville's No.11. Sweet Water has beaten five top-10 teams while Maplesville has only beaten two.
No.7 Talladega Co.-Central (13-0) over No.9 Sulligent (12-1) by 3 points
Talladega's No.1 scoring defense must stop Sulligent's No.8 offense. Sulligent is 1-1 versus top-10 teams while Talladega is 1-0. The schedule strength edge goes to Sulligent (No.26 vs. No.45). Close game.
- 2A - (prediction results: 24-4 86%)
No.1 Fyffe (13-0) over No.5 Red Bay (13-0) by 14 points
Fyffe's No.1 scoring offense vs. Red Bay's No.9 defense and Fyffe's No.5 defense vs. Red Bay's No.7 offense. Red Bay has played a tougher schedule (No.22 vs. No.42), but Fyffe out-scored the three common opponents by twice as many points. Both teams are 1-0 versus top-10 teams.
No.2 Leroy (12-1) over No.3 American Christian (12-1) by 4 points
American Christian's No.2 scoring offense must score against Leroy's stingy No.8 defense while Leroy's No.6 offense must do the same to American Christian's No.14 defense. Leroy has the No.1 toughest schedule in 2A while American Christian's is middle of the pack at No.35. Both teams lost to Sweet Water by similar margins. This will be a last possession game.
- 3A - (prediction results: 26-2 93%)
No.1 Clay County (13-0) over No.7 Colbert Co. (12-1) by 11 points
Colbert County's No.4 offense vs. Clay County's No.5 defense and Clay's No.6 offense vs. Colbert's No.11 defense. Clay County 's schedule is ranked fifth while Colbert's is 22nd. Clay Co. is 4-0 vs. top-10 teams while Colbert Co. is 1-0.
No.2 Cordova (13-0) over No.6 Calera (12-1) by 9 points
Cordova's No.1 ranked scoring offense vs. Calera's sixth ranked defense may be the difference. Calera's offense and Cordova's defense are both ranked No.8 might balance each other out. Though Cordova is 3-0 vs. top-10 teams, Calera is 2-0 and their last two games.
- 4A - (prediction results: 26-2 93%)
No.1 Central-Tuscaloosa (13-0) over No.3 Thomasville (11-2) by 5 points
Central's top ranked scoring offense vs. Thomasville's twelfth ranked defense and Thomasville's second ranked offense vs. Central's second ranked defense. Schedule strength is huge in favor of Thomasville (No.8) while Central-Tuscaloosa's is bottom of the rankings (No.60). Thomasville's is 1-2 vs. top-10 teams while Central Tuscaloosa is 1-0.
No.4 Deshler (11-2) over No.7 Brooks (12-1) by 6 points
Things have changed since these two played at the first of the season. Both teams rely heavily on offense (Deshler No.5, Brooks, No.6) while the defense does enough to win (Deshler No.16, Brooks No.14). Deshler has the number one toughest schedule in 4A while Brooks has played the 25th toughest. The score will be closer, but the result will be the same.
- 5A - (prediction results: 22-6 79%)
No. 1 Briarwood Christian (13-0) over No.9 Cullman (13-0) by 9 points
Briarwood's third ranked scoring offense must take advantage of Cullman's 27th best defense. Cullman's No.2 offense must make up the difference versus Briarwood's No.8 defense. Briarwood has the edge in schedule strength, No.15 vs. No.52 for Cullman. Briarwood is 3-0 vs. top-10 teams while Cullman is 1-0.
No.2 St.Paul's (12-1) over No.6 Williamson (10-3) by 6 points
St.Paul's will try to avenge the beatdown from early in the season and the ratings indicate it will happen. St.Paul's is No.4 in offense and defense while Williamson is six on offense and only No.28 on defense. Williamson has traveled a tougher route, No.7 vs. St.Paul's No.23. Neither team has played another top-10 other than the previous game between the two.
- 6A - (prediction results: 23-5 82%)
No.1 Prattville (13-0) over No.2 McGill-Toolen (13-0) by 1 point (0.02 pts to be exact)
This game is way too close to call. Prattville third ranked offense and No.1 in defense. McGill's second ranked offense, and No.3 defense. McGill has a slight advantage of playing a tougher schedule (No.33 vs. No.52) but both are only average. McGill is 1-0 vs. top-10 teams while Prattville is 2-0. Flip a coin. This is a must see game in the south. These two teams have flip-flopped No.1 to No.2 over the last 4 weeks.
No.8 Vestavia Hills (11-2) over No.9 Spain Park (11-2) by 1 point (0.1 pts to be exact)
Both are tough defensively and do just enough on offense to win. Spain Park is No.13 on offense and No.10 on defense while Vestavia is No.14 on offense and No.9 on defense. Both played in the best region in the north and schedule strength is equal. I have a feeling this rematch will not involve a shutout like last time. A must see game in the north.
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