Alabama HS Predictions

Quarter-Final week (or week 13) means the teams are rounding the corner onto the backstretch of the playoffs. One mistake and it's over. The pain of losing this deep in the season is a tough burden to carry. These next few weeks will test the stamina and heart of these young men, and the strong will move on. Regardless, every survivor has nothing to be ashamed of, well done.

At this point in the season every coach has pulled every trick out of the bag to motivate his team. There is not much more to say, if the team needs motivation for this week's game then it may not be a problem because they will sit at home next week.

Now, team chemistry is the key. These teams have battled to reach this point, and the competition is as tough as any played against thus far so the bond of battle and unity must carry the team onward. Week 13 is a time for leaders to stand up and point to the goal of the season, winning a championship.

The yratings predictions are at 78-percent this playoff season compared to the more up and down regular season competition's 81-percent. There are some exceptions, the 3A ratings are 21-3 or 88-percent and 4A sits at 22-2, 92-percent.

No numbers this week just in-depth predictions. Good luck to all the teams, drive safely and don't forget to visit for all the details.


#1 Prattville (10-1) over #7 Auburn (12-0) by 17 points
A battle of #1's - Auburn's #1 scoring offense (36.8/game) versus Prattville's #1 scoring defense (7.6/game). Does defense when championships? We will see, because Auburn's weakness might be the #18 scoring defense (18.1/game) which has the task of stopping the #2 scoring offense of Prattville (36.0/game).

Prattville has the edge in schedule strength rankings at #30 versus Auburn's 47th ranked schedule.

Common Opponents:
Auburn's record 5-0, points-for average 40.6 pts/game, points-against 21.2 pts/game; Prattville's record 5-0, points-for average 44.4/game, points-against average 10.0 pts/game.

This one will be close for a half, but Prattville's playoff experience should take over - I think it will be closer than a 17-point difference.

#12 Davidson (10-2) over #15 Murphy (10-2) by 2 points
Statistically neither one of the these teams are in the top 10 in any category, but the ratings don't calculate heart which both teams have shown up to this point. Davidson has the #22 scoring offense (26.8/game) and the #11 scoring defense (16.5/game) while Murphy has the #21 scoring offense (26.9/game) and the #25 scoring defense (19.7/game). Region 1 played tough schedules, and it shows: Davidson #17, Murphy #11.

Common Opponents:
Davidson's record 9-1, points-for average 24.7/game, 14.3/game; Murphy's record 8-2, points-for average 22.3/game, points-against average 17.0/game.

Last time the ratings predicted Murphy by three and the final reflected exactly that 48-45. This time the tables are turned, and Davidson is predicted to win by two which indicates another barn burner.

#2 Mountain Brook (11-1) over #4 Hoover (11-1) by 3 points
Mountain Brook's strength is their #3 scoring offense (36.0/game) and Hoover's strength is the #7 scoring defense (14.6/game). The difference may be Mountain Brook's #5 scoring defense's (13.8/game) ability to slow down Hoover's #14 scoring offense (14.6/game). Schedule strengths are basically the same since both teams are in region 6: MB #26, Hoover #21.

Common Opponents:
Mountain Brook record 7-0, points-for average 34.6/game, points-against average 8.6/game; Hoover record 7-0, points-for average 30.0/game, points-against average 11.7/game.

The last meeting, the ratings predicted a 10-point Mountain Brook win, and Hoover won by seven. Hoover has improved but the ratings still like Mountain Brook to pull off the shocker.

#19 Huntsville (9-3) over #31 Hewitt-Trussville (9-3) by 6 points
The two lowest rated teams remaining in the playoffs face-off for a game of respect. Huntsville's #2 scoring defense (10.3/game) is the highlight of this game. If Hewitt-Trussville's #33 offense (22.8/game) can figure a way to move the ball then Hewitt-Trussville's #24 defense (19.7/game) should be able to keep Huntsville's #34 offense (22.7/game) out of the end zone. The schedule strength leans toward Hewitt-Trussville #34 while Huntsville is #56.

Common Opponents:
Hewitt-Trussville's record 3-0, points-for average 19.3/game, points-against average 14.0/game; Huntsville's record 2-1, points-for average 16.7/game, points-against average 13.3/game.

This game is an interesting matchup which I feel will be a high-teen to low-20 score, but Huntsville's defense will prove to be too fast and too much for Hewitt-Trussville to handle.


#1 Carver-Montgomery (12-0) over #9 Demopolis (8-4) by 12 points Carver's #3 scoring defense (11.1/game) and Demopolis' #2 scoring offense (38.3/game) may cancel each other out, but Carver's #1 scoring offense (46.4/game) may have it's way against Demopolis' #39 scoring defense (24.4/game). Schedule strength could play a roll in this one: Demopolis #17 and Carver #61.

Common Opponents:
Demopolis record 5-0, points-for average 54.0/game, points-against average 20.8/game; Carver record 5-0, points-for average 54.8/game, points-against average 8.8/game.

These two teams can put up some points, and the last time they met was in week four with Carver winning big 47-22, but this is week 13 and things have changed. I just don't think Demopolis can slow Carver down, but you never say never, turnovers and field position always make a difference.

#2 Vigor (12-0) over #11 Spanish Fort (11-1) by 12 points
Vigor boasts the #3 scoring offense (37.9/game) while Spanish Fort counters with the #11 scoring defense (15.0/game). Spanish Fort's #16 offense (28.0/game) may have success against Vigor's #13 defense (16.7/game) which is needed to stay in the game. Vigor has played against a top 10 schedule coming in at #7 while Spanish Fort has played a modest 27th toughest schedule.

Common Opponents:
Spanish Fort, record 6-0, points-for average 28.8/game, points-against average 14.7/game; Vigor, record 7-0, points-for average 41.6/game, points-against average 15.6/game.

The ratings predicted a close 8-point Vigor win in the earlier meeting which Vigor won by 13 (35-22). This could be a mirror image of the first meeting.

#3 Hartselle (12-0) over #5 Russellville (11-1) by 1 point
In this corner, Hartselle, #11 scoring offense (32.2/game) and #1 scoring defense (7.7/game) and in the other corner, Russellville, #7 scoring offense (33.9/game) and #8 scoring defense (14.5/game). Schedule strength leans toward Russellville #18 while Hartselle is #40.

Common Opponents:
Russellville, record 6-0, points-for average 42.8/game, points-against average 13.2/game; Hartselle, record 6-0, points-for average 36.2/game, points-against average 2.0/game.

Hartselle won in week four 24-14, but Russellville is much improved so don't be surprised if Russellville pulls off the upset.

#4 Walker (11-1) over #7 Cullman (10-2) by 4 points
Both offenses are very good, Walker #6 (34.6/game) and Cullman #4 (36.0/game). There is a difference on defense, Walker #2 (9.0/game) and Cullman #19 (17.4/game). Schedule strength goes to Cullman #32 while Walker's schedule is #51.

Common Opponents:
Walker, record 7-0, points-for average 37.3/game, points-against average 6.7/game; Cullman, record 6-1, points-for average 36.4/game, points-against average 12.1/game.

Cullman is Walker's only loss of the season from back in week two (26-14). This highway rivalry game will prove to be worth the money and an enjoyable night of football.


#1 Deshler (11-1) over #5 Brooks (11-1) by 13 points
Deshler's #2 scoring offense (38.1/game) must match Brooks #6 scoring offense (35.3/game) point-for-point to stay in this one. It will be tough to score against Deshler's #1 scoring defense (9.5/game) as well as Brooks #9 defense (16.1/game). Schedule strength: Deshler #22, Brooks #36.

Common Opponents:
Deshler, record 6-0, points-for average 49.5/game, points-against average 10.0/game; Brooks, record 7-0, points-for average 38.9/game, points-against average 14.3/game.

The week nine ratings predicted a Deshler win by eight, but Deshler won 28-7. This time the spread is 13, so we'll see how it plays out.

#2 Cherokee County (12-0) over #6 Oneonta (10-2) by 7 points
Two great offenses, Oneonta #5 (35.8/game) and Cherokee #3 (38.0/game), must score against two tough defenses, Oneonta #20 (19.3/game) and Cherokee #7 (15.9/game). Schedule strength is virtually the same: Oneonta #24 and Cherokee #18.

Common Opponents:
Oneonta, record 6-1, points-for average 35.6/game, points-against average 19.6/game; Cherokee Co., record 6-0, points-for average 36.5/game, points-against average 11.7/game.

In week four, Oneonta was predicted to win by 10, but lost by 16 (37-21). This time it's Cherokee County by seven, another rematch, another hard one to pick.

#3 Lincoln (11-1) over #4 Handley (9-2) by 5 points
Strength versus strength, weakness versus weakness, Lincoln's #7 scoring offense (35.1/game) vs. Handley's #2 scoring defense (11.1/game) and Lincoln's #12 defense (17.2/game) vs. Handley's #21 offense (26.5/game). Both teams played tough schedules: Handley #12, Lincoln #7.

Common Opponents:
Handley, record 6-0, points-for average 27.2/game, points-against average 8.3/game; Lincoln, record 6-0, points-for average 37.7/game, points-against average 16.3/game.

Handley lost to Lincoln in week three by four points (38-34), and the ratings show this game will not be much different.

#7 UMS-Wright (10-2) over #8 Jackson (9-3) by 1 point
Jackson has the #8 scoring offense (34.2/game), and it must be stopped by UMS's #13 scoring defense (17.2/game). UMS's #14 offense (31.0/game) might have an easier time against Jackson's #27 scoring defense (20.7/game). Schedule strength: UMS-Wright #10, Jackson #16.

Common Opponents:
UMS-Wright, record 6-0, points-for average 33.8/game, points-against average 11.3/game; Jackson, record 6-1, points-for average 33.4/game, points-against average 19.1/game.

UMS-Wright was predicted to win by three in week six, but lost by 25 (14-39), but the ratings are determined to say UMS-Wright will win.


#1 Leeds (12-0) over #8 Piedmont (10-2) by 16 points
Can Piedmont's #7 offense (35.9/game) and #9 defense (16.2/game) matchup with Leeds' #2 offense (40.2/game) and #1 scoring defense (2.3/game)? Piedmont competition was somewhat tougher throughout the season ranking #23 while Leeds' ranked #46.

Common Opponents:
Piedmont, record 6-0, points-for average 40.0/game, points-against average 13.2/game; Leeds, record 6-0, points-for average 45.3/game, points-against average 2.2/game.

The week eight meeting ended in a blowout by Leeds 35-0, and the ratings indicated a 15-point Leeds win. The ratings still believe the 2 1/2 touchdown number holds true.

#2 Colbert County (9-3) over #4 Hamilton (12-0) by 4 points
Defense wins championships, and both these teams have what it takes, Hamilton #3 defense (11.1/game) and Colbert County #2 defense (11.0/game). Offense shows a difference, #9 Hamilton (35.2/game) while Colbert's offense is #17 (29.5/game). Colbert County has played the second toughest schedule in 3A while Hamilton played an average #35 schedule.

Common Opponents:
Hamilton, record 3-0, points-for average 30.0/game, points-against average 12.3/game; Colbert County, record 2-1, points-for average 27.0/game, points-against average 11.3/game.

This game is somewhat unique, in that all the statistics point to Hamilton. The ratings like Colbert County's schedule strength.

#3 T.R.Miller (12-0) over #17 Daleville (9-3) by 15 points
Statistically T.R.Miller is strong, #3 offense (39.9/game) and #4 defense (12.3/game) while Daleville is #25 (25.7/game) on offense and #11 (16.8/game) on defense. Daleville does have an edge in schedule strength #31 vs. T.R. Miller's #54.

Common Opponents:
T.R.Miller, record 4-0, points-for average 32.8/game, points-against average 9.8/game; Daleville, record 4-0, points-for average 27.5/game, points-against average 14.5/game.

The stats point to T.R.Miller, but we all know stats are for sissies.

#5 Gordo (9-3) over #11 Cordova (9-3) by 10 points
Two top-five offenses, Gordo #5 (37.8/game) and Cordova #1 (40.6/game), must be stopped by lesser defenses, Gordo #16 (18.4/game) and Cordova #45 (29.1/game). Schedule strength is dead even, Gordo #9, Cordova #15.

Common Opponents:
Gordo, record 7-0, points-for average 40.7/game, points-against average 10.0/game; Cordova, record 5-2, points-for average 40.4/game, points-against average 29.1/game.

Cordova won the first meeting from week three by a score of 39 to 27. The numbers have changed, and the ratings like Gordo by more than a touchdown.


#1 Clay County (12-0) over #8 Fyffe (9-3) by 17 points
Clay County's #2 defense (7.6/game) must stop Fyffe's #14 offense (31.1/game) and Fyffe's #12 defense (16.2/game) must slow down Clay's #7 offense (37.1/game). Both teams played very tough schedules, Clay County #4 and Fyffe #12.

Common Opponents:
Clay Co., record 3-0, points-for average 39.0/game, points-against average 7.0/game; Fyffe, record 3-0, points-for average 30.0/game, points-against average 16.3/game.

Clay's experience and tough defense might prove to be too much in this one.

#4 Sulligent (10-2) over #10 Tanner (12-0) by 9 points
Sulligent's #2 offense (39.0/game) must score against Tanner's #7 defense (14.8/game) while Tanner's #12 offense (32.2/game) must score against Sulligent's #8 defense (15.2/game). Sulligent played a slightly tougher schedule ranked #17 vs. Tanner's #30 schedule.

Common Opponents:
Sulligent, record 3-0, points-for average 42.0/game, points-against average 12.7/game; Tanner, record 3-0, points-for average 32.0/game, points-against average 13.0/game.

I know it's hard to believe a three loss team will beat an undefeated team this late in the playoffs, but the ratings must see something.

#2 Leroy (12-0) over #7 Millry (10-2) by 13 points
Leroy's #1 scoring offense (46.5/game) will matchup with Millry's #5 defense (11.9/game) while Millry's #9 scoring offense (35.1/game) might have an easier time with Leroy's #25 defense (20.2/game). Leroy's #5 schedule ranking is the other end of the spectrum compared to Millry's #50 schedule.

Common Opponents:
Millry, record 7-0, points-for average 34.6/game, points-against average 10.6/game; Leroy, record 6-0, points-for average 50.3/game, points-against average 18.5/game.

These two met in week two with Leroy winning by 16 (35-19), and the ratings do not think much has changed.

#3 Reeltown (11-1) over #5 Pickens County (11-1) by 3 points
These two teams are statistical monsters. Reeltown has the #3 offense (38.5/game) and the #1 defense (6.4/game) while Pickens County has the #4 offense (38.3/game) and the #4 defense (11.6/game). Schedule rankings imply the competition was not too tough, Reeltown #51, Pickens #41.

Common Opponents:
Reeltown, record 3-0, points-for average 32.0/game, points-against average 5.3/game; Pickens Co., record 3-0, points-for average 32.0/game, points-against average 15.3/game.

Based on the numbers these two teams play well on both sides of the ball, so it might come down to a turnover for a three-point difference.


#1 Sweet Water (11-1) over #3 Brantley (12-0) by 15 points
The stats show why these two teams have made it this far, Sweet Water's #2 offense (51.1/game) and #1 defense (7.2/game) against Brantley's #4 offense (44.4/game) and #7 defense (11.5/game). Sweet Water's schedule is 13th toughest in 1A while Brantley's is 38th.

Common Opponents:
Sweet Water, record 3-0, points-for average 46.3/game, points-against average 2.7/game; Brantley, record 3-0, points-for average 39.7/game, points-against average 14.3/game.

Sweet Water's season would be considered a failure to not move forward to the next round, but I bet Brantley has something to say about it - expect a closer game than two touchdowns.

#2 Linden (12-0) over #10 Loachapoka (9-2) by 17 points
Linden's #3 offense (47.0/game) must find a way to score against Loachapoka's #3 defense (9.4/game). Loachapoka's #25 offense (27.9/game) has the tough task of scoring against Linden's #10 defense (12.8/game). Schedule strength is not a factor, Linden #21 and Loachapoka #30.

Common Opponents:
Linden, record 2-0, points-for average 50.0/game, points-against average 0.0 game; Loachapoka, record 2-0, points-for average 24.0/game, points-against average 4.5/game.

Linden appears to be too strong to mess up an undefeated season.

#5 Speake (10-2) over #19 South Lamar (8-4) by 11 points
Speake's #6 defense (11.4/game) must stop South Lamar's #9 offense (35.5/game) long enough for Speake's #11 offense (35.3/game) to put up some points-against SouthLamar's #37 defense (27.2/game). Strength of schedule shows how South Lamar made it this far, by playing the 12th toughest while Speake has played only the 40th toughest.

Common Opponents:
South Lamar, record 3-0, points-for average 44.3/game, points-against average 24.3/game; Speake, record 3-0, points-for average 39.7, points-against average 13.7/game.

It will be interesting to see if South Lamar can pull off another upset on the way to the final four.

#7 Gaston (10-2) over #20 Appalachian (10-2) by 9 points
This game matches strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Appalachian's strength is #2 defense (7.8/game), and it must stop Gaston's strength #6 offense (38.0/game). Appalachian's offense is #18 (30.8/game) in scoring while Gaston's defense is #17 (16.4/game) in scoring. Appalachian's schedule almost the easiest in 1A ranked #62 while Gaston's is ranked 36th.

Common Opponents:
Appalachian, record 3-1, points-for average 20.3/game, points-against average 9.0/game; Gaston, record 5-0, points-for average 46.0/game, points-against average 16.0/game.

Does offensive power win versus defensive power? This game will give us a clue.

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