SEC Power Predictions

Schedule strength is the foundation to which a team's reputation is built. Sure, the accomplishments of an undefeated season speak for themselves, but if the deed was done against weak competition then it is somewhat tainted. If a team wins 10 games against a tough schedule then the respect is earned. Read more of the SEC Power Predictions.

Be careful when playing with schedule strength because it is a two-edged sword. Using Yratings rankings and strength-of-schedule (SOS) there is only three teams in this week's top-25 to have a SOS ranking in the top-25:

Rank Team W-L S-O-S
No. 8 USC (4-1) 9th
No. 12 Oklahoma (2-2) 20th
No.17 Tennessee (2-3) 22nd

On the other end of the spectrum, six teams in the SOS top-25 in the bottom of the rankings:

Rank Team W-L S-O-S
No. 111 Illinois (1-3) 2nd
No. 116 San Jose St (1-3) 3rd
No. 114 UL-Lafayette (2-2) 7th
No. 119 Western Kentucky (0-4) 11th
No. 99 Louisville (1-3) 17th
No. 110 Washington State (1-4) 19th

The teams to avoid collapse against tougher competition are rewarded with higher rankings. Losing is bad, but it's only the result of the scores - the scoring difference shows how close a losing team is to being a good team.

The average score difference is the primary factor in the Yratings formula, but the weight of the strength-of-schedule is what determines a team's strength. The level of competition must be rewarded and acknowledged to create accurate predictions.

This week's Yrating rankings:

NCAA SEC TEAM NAME RATING RTG +/- SEC RK +/-
#2 # 1 FLORIDA 131.6 -0.6 0
#5 # 2 ALABAMA 125.0 -0.3 0
#10 # 3 AUBURN 117.3 -0.2 0
#17 # 4 TENNESSEE 112.6 -2.1 0
#23 # 5 OLE MISS 110.4 +1.3 +1
#26 # 6 LSU 109.4 -0.8 -1
#32 # 7 SO.CAROLINA 106.8 +0.3 0
#51 # 8 ARKANSAS 102.2 +25.0 +4
#54 # 9 GEORGIA 101.7 +0.1 0
#60 #10 KENTUCKY 100.6 -2.6 -1
#77 #11 MISS.STATE 96.0 -2.1 -1
#85 #12 VANDERBILT 93.3 -1.6 -1

Last week was almost perfect, 6-1 (86%). Arkansas made the SEC proud and proved nothing in this world is perfect. Let's see how this week turns out.

SEC Power predictions:

No. 85 VANDERBILT (2-3) AT No. 92 ARMY (2-3)

VANDY WILL WIN BECAUSE..defense 25th ranked in yards allowed (292.2 yds/gm), 23rd in scoring defense (15.6 pts/gm).

ARMY WILL WIN BECAUSE..home field, 7th ranked rushing attack (231.0 yds/gm)

PREDICTION: This will be a low scoring game, and if Vandy doesn't stop Army on the ground then it might turnout to be an SEC defeat. In a nail-biter - VANDY BY 2 POINTS

No. 60 KENTUCKY (2-2) AT No. 32 SOUTH CAROLINA (4-1)

KENTUCKY WILL WIN BECAUSE..pass defense ranked 16th (163.0 yds/gm) and rush offense 50th ranked (153.0 yds/gm).

SOUTH CAROLINA WILL WIN BECAUSE..pass defense ranked 6th (150.2 yds/gm) and 14th ranked defense yards allowed (264.4 yds/gm).

PREDICTION: Yards will be hard to come by through the air for both teams, but Kentucky will struggle gaining any yardage - SOUTH CAROLINA BY 6 POINTS

No. 10 AUBURN (5-0) AT No. 51 ARKANSAS (2-2)

AUBURN WILL WIN BECAUSE..Offense 5th in scoring (41.4 pts/gm) and 5th in yards per game (512.8 yds/gm).

ARKANSAS WILL WIN BECAUSE..passing offense 7th ranked (329.3 yds/gm)

PREDICTION: Based on last week's impressive win by Arkansas over Texas A&M one would think this is trouble for Auburn until you look at the stats of the Arkansas defense. In a shootout - AUBURN BY 15 POINTS

No. 2 FLORIDA (4-0) AT No. 26 LSU (5-0)

FLORIDA WILL WIN BECAUSE..if Tebow plays, No. 2 scoring defense (7.3 pts/gm), No. 1 yards allowed defense (212.8 yds/gm), 3rd ranked yardage offense (526.3 yds/gm)

LSU WILL WIN BECAUSE..home game at night, if Tebow plays (?), scoring defense 17th (14.8 pts/gm)

PREDICTION: If LSU works some magic on the offense and a few breaks from turnovers the Tigers might only lose by a touchdown (kidding). Tebow didn't play defense, but Florida knows how to with or without him - FLORIDA BY 22 POINTS

No. 54 GEORGIA (3-2) AT No. 17 TENNESSEE (2-3)

GEORGIA WILL WIN BECAUSE..passing yards offense 42nd (241.8 yds/gm), Tennessee's passing game 82nd (188.8 yds/gm)

TENNESSEE WILL WIN BECAUSE..Georgia's scoring defense 85th (27.8 pts/gm), 100k+ fans, stingy defense 19th (278.2 yds/gm)

PREDICTION: Georgia's offense is searching for an identity while Tennessee appears to know what it wants to do, but can't execute. Tennessee may have turned the corner in the 4th quarter last week - TENNESSEE BY 11 POINTS

No. 5 ALABAMA (5-0) AT No. 23 OLE MISS (3-1)

ALABAMA WILL WIN BECAUSE..No.2 defense yardage (222.2 yds/gm), No. 13 scoring defense (14.4 pts/gm), No. 8 scoring offense (40.0 pts/gm) and No. 14 yards for (462.8 yds/gm).

OLE MISS WILL WIN BECAUSE..hyped up home crowd, No. 6 scoring defense (10.8 pts/gm), No. 18 yards allowed (274.0 yds/gm), 13th ranked pass defense (159.8 yds/gm).

PREDICTION: Everyone wanted this to be a game to remember. Unfortunately based on the season to date this will not be a contest. The struggles of the Ole Miss offense will continue - ALABAMA BY 15 POINTS

No. 65 HOUSTON (3-1) AT No. 77 MISS.STATE (2-3)

HOUSTON WILL WIN BECAUSE..No. 1 passing offense (446.0 yds/gm), No. 3 scoring offense (42.5 pts/gm).

MISS. STATE WILL WIN BECAUSE..home field, 22nd ranked rushing offense (205 yds/gm), Houston's rush defense (204.8 yds/gm).

PREDICTION: Mississippi State will need to control the ball to avoid the Houston Airport offense to take off flying all over the field. Miss.State should be able to run but too much air by the Cougars - HOUSTON BY 3 POINTS

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