There was a post indicating that Bagdad and Mogollon were only losing 5 seniors each. St. David is also losing just 5 seniors, three are 2-way starters. Pima will lose 16 I think. Joe City 14 if I remember right. VL about 15? Pima will still be strong as they have a huge soph class and very good JV team. They have the numbers to reload. Joe City, on the other hand, may have trouble and will likely be way down. VL will be down. Duncan should be a little better.
Here's a look at the teams that made the playoffs this year: Joy moving up. Pima is losing half it's players to graduation. According to maxpreps 14. Doubtful they make it to the championship game next year. But they will contend. Bagdad losing 5. Championship game is a real possibility. Valley losing 13. One playoff victory should just about do it. SPA moving up Mogollon losing 5. Will contend for the championship. Joe City losing 7. They will be better but not enough to make it past the second round. Salome does not have any player info on maxpreps. But look for Salome to improve. But not enough to get past the second round. Duncan losing 4. Look for Duncan to get a playoff victory possibly two. Mesa Prep losing 5. May win a playoff game but still not polished enough to get past the second round. Gilbert Christian losing 4 but all 4 are starters. And with a team that only had 16 players, 4 is a lot. Who is going to play QB? A rebuilding year for sure. Depending on the schedule may or may not make the playoffs. St David losing 6. Look for them to make some noise. Losing 6 out of 42 players shouldn't make much of an impact. Maybe some of their players could transfer to GC or Rancho. Lol.
Contenders: Superior losing 9. They will get back in the mix. Mayer and Rock Point don't have any player info on maxpreps. A lot will depend on scheduling. Ray losing 6. Doubt they'll get in the mix. Rancho losing 7. That's just about their entire team. They only had 12 to begin with. Will they even field a team next year. Ft Thomas losing 10. But on a team with 38 it shouldn't sting too much. Look for Ft T to raise some eyebrows.
This season is a week from crowning a D6 champion and I already can't wait for next season!,,
Difficult to say. most of the juggernauts in D6 from this year are either moving up, (Joy and Spa), or losing half their team in seniors. This year D6 was relatively open for a championship (as opposed to last year with Joe city being almost destined to win again with baldwin), but next year D6 will be much more open for a champion and for other teams who don't usually get far to get a little farther. The way I see it:
Mogollon will contend for state pretty much like always, losing only 5.
Pima IS losing 14 or 15 seniors and hurts them ALOT. they will not contend for state but they will be an adversary to D6.
Valley is losing alot of seniors as well, alot of them being their key players. Valley will do ok, but not as good as this year.
St. David isn't losing too many, they should make a bigger presence next year than this past year, they wont contend for state though.
Joe City losing several, they will do ok, similar to what they accomplished this year.
This is my general look-out for next year D6. I will be looking at D6 teams moving up like Joy and Spa and how they do in D5 next year, very interested to see the progress and happenings there.
SD is losing 6? They only have 5 seniors. Three are two-way starters. They are also losing a jr kicker and jr back-up jv guard (foreign exchange students). Joe City's program indicated they had 14 seniors. Maybe I read it wrong. Joe City's bench looked very thin. I know they have a good weight program and that they play a tough junior high football schedule, but I didn't see a strong group waiting in the wings like they've had in the past. They also didn't have many out for football. I could see Bryant leaving. Pima may be losing a truck load but they have a wagon load behind them. I see them as serious contenders as long as they keep their coaching staff and continue to play at the 8-man level. They have the tradition, community support, burgeoning numbers, and lots of boys wanting to play football. Their JV team this year could have gone .500 with the regular varsity schedule.
Mogollon will be very tough returning 2 experienced running backs and a good QB, Bagdad will be very deep with alot of experience and size, Pima lost alot but has alot of depth and will look to reload. those are definitely the powerhouse programs for for 2013.
Just to keep the prognistatical, pharcical, phlippant oblong orb rolling....
Pheasible phinish might be thus:
1. Pima: Reloading not rebuilding. They'll be big, fast, and tough. 2. Mogollon: Fast and tough with two experienced backs. 3. Bagdad: Definitely strong, but do they have the depth to get them to championship? 4. Duncan: Riding on the legs and backs of the twin Merrell's, but now have a QB and another back who will demand attention so defenses can't just focus on #25. 5. Ray: You can call me... Ray. The dark horse is a bearcat. 6. Gilbert Christian: Will they finally host a playoff game on their fancy field? 7. Valley Lutheran: Yep, he's fast... very fast. But has he learned how to take a hit? 8. Joseph City: Perennial top-ten but down a bit. How far can 40 take them? 9. St. David: Lots of lineman, but who's behind em? 10. Salome: Frogs may hop over some teams to move up as year progresses.
Wow..... Pima loses 16, and is expected to "re-load"? What are they doing at the D-6 level if they have a consistent 40-45 guys coming out every year? I know a lot of D-5 schools that have trouble getting that kind of turn out.
Add 3 AVERAGE ATHLETES to a 25 man roster, and you would see a huge difference in that team as a whole. Imagine doubling those numbers every year. Thats what Pima does. I could be way off here, and I probably am, but it just seems strange to me.
Maybe they just have a really great football program, I dont know. Someone enlighten me.
Pima has more students that most of the other 1A/D6 schools. They also have the tradition, good coaching, a head coach who is very well liked by the kids, and a decent jr. high program that helps the younger kids start learning the game. They will be competitive as long as they are at this level. They have roughly 30-40 more boys in their HS than many or most of their opponents so if even half of those boys play football and if a quarter of them are average athletes, that adds a lot to the 8-man game.
St. David is several students smaller, but also have great tradition and a popular coach. For the last few years, they've consistently had more boys playing football than either of their neighbors, Benson or Tombstone, which are schools with enrollments more than double that of St. David. St. David, however, does not have jr. high football, but boys from there can play in a regional youth league with a team in Benson.
I can imagine Bagdad has larger numbers since they are a copper mining town and that industry is doing well right now. They probably have higher than average enrollment right now, similar to Morenci. When that happens, those schools will usually be better than they've been because they have more kids playing and a better chance at having average or above average athletes. Numbers are usually a good bet... if you don't know anything else about a school or team, bet on the one with higher enrollment.
I also think that these schools with great football traditions (e.g., Pima, Mogollon, Joe City, St. David, etc) have that small town "community" feel, and have kids in the community who grew up idolizing and watching older siblings, cousins, or friends play. Sometimes boys play football because that's what the boys do and it never occurs to them that they could join the chess club or the debate team. Plus, that's the only athletic option in the fall, since their isn't cross-country or swimming, soccer, or lacrosse! I believe in most of these schools the majority of the freshman boys play football. That's a pretty strong tradition.
I could understand complaints about Pima playing in D6 if they were dominating and winning state titles at will but they are not at this point, they are having hefty turnouts but I think D6 is the best fit for them at this time. Good luck to Pima this year and potentially taking care of some "unfinished business"
I can agree with that. There just seems to be a gap there. D-6 schools have a wide range of students enrolled, and like you said, 20-30 kids makes a huge difference overall. I will say though, They aren't winning at will because there are other talented teams out there, however, talent is not what separates divisions. Pima has talent, just like a lot of D-6 schools..... They just have it in larger quantities (numbers.....which IS how divisions are separated).
I've never understood the idea that because a school gets a lot of kids out that they should move up. There were I believe 5 or 6 schools larger in enrollment than Pima playing at the div. 6 level last year. Just because they do a better job of getting kids out shouldn't penalize them. Years back St David had 40+ kids out for football with an enrollment less than 150 - should they have moved to div. 5?
I still think that the best indicator of where schools should participate is school enrollment. The only other factor is public vs. private/metro but that is a whole other debate that I don't want to start.
Actually, enrollment should be the only indicator. That is my point. Are you sure that there were that many schools that had more students enrolled? I know Pima was actually moved up a few years back and dropped back down after a year or two. They have been bordering on the division 5/division six level for a while now. I have seen Pima play. I'm actually a fan of them being in division six. I think it is great for division six. There are very small schools that stay competitive fairly consistently. The point I'm trying to make is that numbers are a huge advantage. Pima's rich football tradition and high enrollment for a D-6 school gives them a huge boost. I'm not condemning the program, I'm just making a point.
Regardless, I will be there when Pima opens their season @ mesa prep, and on that night I will be a rough rider through and through!
When I stated that 5 or 6 schools were larger in enrollments than Pima I was referring to the counts that determined the last two year block. Pima's enrollment then was actually larger than the count that determined this two year block. This two year block Pima is one of the largest schools because some of the bigger ones (with enrollments in the 250 range) moved to div. 5. I agree that enrollment should be the only factor (again ignoring the public vs. private debate) to place schools.